[sittinguy]

Some family visting from Michigan, and the guy works for the nuke power plant there. He said it takes 3-4 years to build a coal fired power plant. And they projected they would need to start 70 new plants around the country to keep up with demand in the next few years. Because of enviromental issues there is massive red tape covered tree huggers and they only got 20 aproved so far for construction. He claims we will have power shortages in the next couple years, while they try to play catch up.

He admits that the coal plants are very dirty, and fully contributes to GW, but says we will need the power one way or another, and we all know coal gives the best bang for the buck.

I felt like this was good inside info.

I actually got to talk about PO at the party last night,, IT WAS GREAT.

[NeoPeasant]

Richard Duncan (Olduvai Theory) isn't sounding so loony anymore.

[joeltrout]

So much for electric cars. Our grid couldn't handle it all now much less in 10 years.

joeltrout

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sittinguy', 'S')ome family visting from Michigan, and the guy works for the nuke power plant there. He said it takes 3-4 years to build a coal fired power plant.

[NeoPeasant]

We should all have strategies to deal with frequent extended power failures, such as how to cope with the loss of refrigeration and air conditioning in the middle of summer.

[IslandCrow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sittinguy', 'A')nd they projected they would need to start 70 new plants around the country to keep up with demand in the next few years.

[Tyler_JC]

Before we see extended blackouts, prices for electricity are going to move up.

Leaving your computer, your TVs, the half dozen lights upstairs, and the massage chair on all night will become an expensive mistake.

The electrical market is a market. It's not a government service. Prices rise as demand begins to approach capacity. I just don't see consumers wasting as much power as they do with 15 cent, 20 cent, 25 cent or more kilowatt/hours.

There's a lot we can do to improve efficiency before succumbing to rolling blackouts.

[gnm]

A tightly regulated market Tyler. PNM in New Mexico badly needed to raise rates to upgrade infrastructure and absorb increases from commodities (coal and NG primarily) - the state refused to allow the rate increases and PNM responded by laying off 1800 people and selling their gas (NG) division. Tell me how that translates to free market variance for electricity.

Oh, I should add that many people started seeing regular blackouts (load shedding?) late last summer. So rate increases need not precede blackouts. It still cost the same (when you could get it).

-G

[dinopello]

I went to a Virginia power open house in my neighborhood where they were describing the work that is already underway

to upgrade the electrical infrastructure in my county.

They are completely rebuilding the substation that serves my area and then internetworking several subtations with 230kV lines that can instantly switch power in case of shutdown of parts of the grid. This involves digging these trenches (not easy or inexpensive in an urban area) everywhere and installing enormous copper cables. I kept thinking about how much all that copper costs.

[Tyler_JC]

Two nights ago I was talking with an analyst from a company that specializes in "forecasting" the electricity market in the Northeast. It is very much a free market up here.

The major restriction is that prices can't rise above $1,000/MW without the consent of the regulatory commission. Currently the price is around $73...so I don't see us hitting that $1,000/MW level without a major catastrophe.

Map of prices

If PNM allows blackouts to continue in New Mexico, it's shareholders will revolt and the company will go under. (Yes, it is publicly traded) The power plants will be bought up by a responsible company and the situation will improve.

The question we have to ask ourselves is what is the level of incompetence of the managers of PNM?

Judging by the fact that its shares have fallen by 70% over the past year...I might be buying solar panels.

[gnm]

What guarantees would any potential purchaser of PNM have that the state regulators would let them raise rates to allow for needed infrastructure upgrades and to accommodate commodity price increases?

Solar panels.... yup.

-G

[aflatoxin]

I do a lot of work for PNM and APS.

PNM looks to be a bloated, disorginized disaster. They had a lot of merger and new build out activity the last few years, and it's catching up to them.

There are a lot of new power plants in the works in this part of the US. There is a 600 MW gas plant scheduled in Belen, a 150 MW upgrade in Las Cruces. Rumors of a new 230 mW gas plant in Albuquerque. A 42 mW plant in Silver City is supposed to be brought back. The 30 mW biomass plant in Edgewood. Desert Rock and another unit at San Juan are the only coal units that I'm aware of.

On the other side of the az-nm border, There are rumors of one or two more units at Cholla, 1-2 new units at Springerville, and another unit at Page. I've also heard that there are plans to put 10 more gas units at Gila Bend.

One of the bigwigs at APS told me a week ago they were going into solar energy in a big way.

APS and PNM also have a 4 mW nuke plant that is the biggest taxpayer in the state of AZ, and the biggest nuke plant in the US. A few years back, one of the PNM engineers that I work with told me that it was the most profitable asset in PNM's portfolio. I would not be surprised if a new nuke plant is in the works.

None of this solves the underlying problem: Our way of life is unsustainable.

[darren]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflatoxin', 'T')here are a lot of new power plants in the works in this part of the US. There is a 600 MW gas plant scheduled in Belen...

APS and PNM also have a 4 mW nuke plant that is the biggest taxpayer in the state of AZ, and the biggest nuke plant in the US.

None of this solves the underlying problem: Our way of life is unsustainable.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('darren', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflatoxin', 'T')here are a lot of new power plants in the works in this part of the US. There is a 600 MW gas plant scheduled in Belen...

APS and PNM also have a 4 mW nuke plant that is the biggest taxpayer in the state of AZ, and the biggest nuke plant in the US.

None of this solves the underlying problem: Our way of life is unsustainable.

[aflatoxin]

I meant MW, megawatts. I have a sticking shift key.

There have only been a few gigawatt size projects in recent years that I've been involved in:

Chuck Lenzie in Nevada
Moss Landing in California
Red hawk in Arizona
Gila Bend in Arizona
Forney power in Texas

These were all combined cycle gas turbines. They go up pretty fast. Gas prices go up pretty fast too.

[Tyler_JC]

But they generally only throw the combined cycle gas plants on during times of high demand, right?

They aren't using gas for base load, I hope.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sittinguy', 'w')e all know coal gives the best bang for the buck.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'B')ut they generally only throw the combined cycle gas plants on during times of high demand, right?

They aren't using gas for base load, I hope.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'B')ut they generally only throw the combined cycle gas plants on during times of high demand, right?

They aren't using gas for base load, I hope.

[Newfie]

If you are inclined toward reading then go to this site

http://www.nerc.com/~filez/rasreports.html

This is the North American Reliability Corporation 2007 Reliability assessment. It takes a fair amount of reading to decode what they are really saying. But in short - we are screwed.

To paraphrase briefly and loosely (if you want the straight skinny read it yourself)

1 NY will be not have enough energy in 2014, other parts of US and Canada not to far behind.

2 Our projected electric energy needs surpass our projected growth by a pretty good margin.

3 We need to build out base load plants. Recent strategy has been to add smaller gas plants near the load. They take on 18 months to build but do not address the core problem.

4 We have insufficient transmission infrastructure to move the power around, and are not making good progress at planning more.

5 Our engineering work force is retiring and there are insufficient new engineers to replace them.

6 Environmental regulations will make the matter worse.

And this from a pretty conservative group who have their hands on the controls.

If I read the report correctly, and I am only working through it when I have time at work, then these are pretty much "best scenario" assessments. They do not take into account a disruption of the fuel supply, acts of terrorism, exceptional weather, or the like.

I find that the reading is difficult as the language is couched in such a was as to make it seem less threatening. So, to get the real meaning of what they are saying you need to do some work and read closely. Slow slogging.