[pup55]

I've been tinkering with a fundamental model and came across this website:

http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/welcome.html

which has an archive of all of the discovery announcements as they come out through various news sources.

Here is a summary of the 2004 announcements to-date:

In September, there was an announcement from Pemex about a 54 gb oilfield in the Gulf that they might or might not be able to get access to because the water is deep. This might have been more related to the US election and the oil markets than reality, but it is included below.

The other highlights were a 3 gb field discovered in China, and a 1 gb field discovered in Greece.

If you exclude the Pemex announcement, the remaining total is about 7.4 gb discovered this year. This compares to 9.5 gb discovered last year, according to

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn ... 8083n.html

There is plenty of sneakiness in this reporting. Some will report the output of the test well, without comment on the size of the field. Some will report the field size, but not on how easy it is to pump up. Some will talk about how many feet of oil formation they drilled through. All of this gives plenty of wiggle room when these are scrutinized by the investment community.

Also people are spending anywhere from $31 to $61 million for a well that will spew forth on average 4100 bod. This can be extrapolated out to compute the investment needed to get up to 120 gb/y per the IEA forecast.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
test well Field Size
Date Co Location BPD Net MM BBl
November-03 Permiana Thailand - 424
November-03 Talisman Vietnam 7300
June-03 Agape Tunisia 2460
December-03 Woodshed Mauritania - 200
June-04 Murphy Malaysia - 700
July-04 Cairn India 3800
July-04 Trans globe Yemen 1140
July-04 Paladin Tunisia 3600
July-04 Vietsov Vietnam 1100
July-04 Orient Pakistan 350
July-04 CNOOC China 1400
July-04 Exxon Mobil Caspian 4100
July-04 Sinopec China - 3,665
July-04 First Calgary Algeria 6376
July-04 Burneftegaz Turkmenistan 876
August-04 CNOOC China 700
July-04 Chaco Bolivia - 5
August-04 Cairn India - 300
August-04 Dana Indonesia 4400
August-04 GSPC Amenhabad 1000 5
August-04 Billip Australia - 100
August-04 Petrobras Argentina - 30
August-04 Shell Siberia - 592
August-04 Gudjarot India - 45
August-04 Egpc Egypt 23000 46
August-04 Ecopetrol Colombia - 14.9
August-04 CNOOC China 3000
August-04 Petrobras Brazil - 76
September-04 Pan ocean Gabon -
September-04 Ogdcl India 2000
September-04 Trans globe Yemen 2240
September-04 Regal Greece - 1,000
October-04 Petrobras Brazil - 4.6
October-04 Woodside Mauritania - 120
October-04 Petrobras Argentina - 0.3
October-04 Sasol Gabon 6600
October-04 Elvari Sakhalin -
September-04 Dno Nabraja 2700
September-04 Petrobras Brazil - 76
September-04 Gail India - 50
September-04 CNOOC China 3000
September-04 Pemex Mexico - 54,000
September-04 Lapidot Israel - 0.75

test well result total 81142 bod
30 mbpy
field discoveries 61,455 mmbbl
net of GOM discovery 7454.59 mmbbl ')

[savethehumans]

Nice job, Pup55!

Please keep an eye out for us, and let us know the year-end results when they are tabulated!

[pup55]

I guess no one caught it, but the second article above is a release from IHS Energy, formerly Petroconsultants, which is where Campbell got a lot of his data from.

The headline was kind of cheery, "stable oil supply seen, all is well" but read between the lines is the following: The remaining reserves amount to 1,250 gb, the cumulative production to-date is 1000 gb or so, and consumption is at 75-80 gb/y which means only about 2-3 years until 50% depletion.

Also, some comment to the effect that "luckily, we had all this oil discovery in the 60's through 80's which is why we are able to pump this oil at the current rate, but, oh, by the way, all that stopped in about '82".

Kind of entertaining. Doesn't say on the website how much they are charging for the report. Evidently, putting a spin of optimism on it (hooray, we have a whole three years before the peak) helps them get a few more sales.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'T')he headline was kind of cheery, "stable oil supply seen, all is well" but read between the lines is the following: The remaining reserves amount to 1,250 gb, the cumulative production to-date is 1000 gb or so, and consumption is at 75-80 gb/y which means only about 2-3 years until 50% depletion.

[khebab]

For the second link. The original article is here:

http://www.ihsenergy.com/company/press/pressreleases/arc2004/pr_101804-trends.jsp

it has figures.

[johnmarkos]

Here's something on that Gulf of Mexico find:

http://www.mexidata.info/id270.html

Looks like this year's "discovery" data point will line up with the curve quite nicely.

[pup55]

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=19020

If this is the case, China now roughly equals Iran for reserves.
Global PO is delayed about 3 years, if 9 billion tons/67 gb are "proven".

This would have some geopolitical ramifications, if true. It would allow China energy consumption to grow at the current rate (10%) if they choose, for the next 15 years or so without increasing imports from the mideast.

After that, though, TSHTF and it would be even tougher to wean themselves off the stuff, since their annual consumption would be double what it now is. Alternately, more responsible growth for a longer time might be wiser.

Probably should keep track of this and see if it shows up in the BP Review next year and/or monitor for veracity. Might be just "happy talk".

[johnmarkos]

67 gb: more than the previous proved reserves for the entire region. If true, it would also be the second largest oil field in the world after Ghawar. It would also make 2004 the best year for discovery in history. I'm pretty skeptical.

[Cool Hand Linc]

Any updates on this?

Any other sites that you may have found that aid in tracking discoveries?

[pup55]

The announcements tend to come in a little slow, but it looks as though 2004 is about wrapped up.

The total is about 9.7 gb, excluding the China announcement for the Bohai field in December, and the Mexico announcement of the Gulf of Mexico strike in August.

In 2005 there have been two interesting announcements:

Indonesia strike at .17 gb:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')antos makes biggest oil strike in its 50-year history
21-01-05 Santos has made the biggest oil strike in its 50-year history -- a discovery that could dramatically transform the company's long-term prospects.
The full ramifications of the find off the coast of Indonesia have yet to be determined, but it has immediately quelled concerns about Santos's reliance on the declining fields of the Cooper Basin in central Australia.