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Re: Another Oil price Record

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: $107

Postby timski » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 16:48:25

$120 agreed; $110 by lunch Tuesday or worst case Wednesday.
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Re: $107

Postby jdumars » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 17:01:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timski', '$')120 agreed; $110 by lunch Tuesday or worst case Wednesday.


Now you've gone and jinxed it!! Now it'll be $65 on tuesday as they discover the Earth is actually a giant gobstopper with a creamy light sweet crude center. :(

Doomers can never get their hopes up around here.
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Re: $107

Postby Concerned » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 17:17:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', 'I')'m hoping Billeary or the Obamanation institute price caps, looking forward to the closed gas stations and supply shortages so I can get out more on my bike.


Nah just leave it to the "feee market" to sort out. Which often ends with things far nastier than closed gas stations you know oh those nasty type things with people on the street wanting to chop heads off.

No bailouts for the banks either. In fact "let them eat cake" or rather their bogus fractional dollars :twisted:
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Re: $107

Postby Zardoz » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 17:23:26

Seems like the time lag between these spot prices and the NYMEX price is getting shorter and shorter. We're down to just a few days now.

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Re: Another Record

Postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 17:24:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Last_Laff', 'w')hy are the website shows different from another? there isnt one that reports the same?


I believe that most media or financial information outlets are by law delayed by 10 or 15 minutes. Some sites will be quicker with the automated information than others just due to traceroute paths.
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Re: $107

Postby joeltrout » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 17:26:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'D')on't look now, but it's hit $108. Dayum!

Seems to me the higher it gets, the higher the floor gets. $100 oil will appear a bargain, so it doesn't seem likely to fall much below that unless people really get spooked and start unloading everything...


One thing to remember is many new investors in crude never intend to phsically acquire the crude. They only enter the market because they can make money there and no where else.

If more money is being made elsewhere then they will leave crude for that and prices could drop quite a bit.

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Re: $107

Postby bonehead » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 18:12:52

Can't wait for my stimulus check,i'll be using it to buy $4.00 a gallon gas.Boy, is this country in trouble.The credit crunch isn't even close to over,spending in Iraq is $12 billion a month,oil's marching toward $120 a barrel with relatively healthy supply levels and King George still has 10 months left.Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gimme some demand destruction.
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Re: $107

Postby jdmartin » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 18:17:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'D')on't look now, but it's hit $108. Dayum!

Seems to me the higher it gets, the higher the floor gets. $100 oil will appear a bargain, so it doesn't seem likely to fall much below that unless people really get spooked and start unloading everything...


One thing to remember is many new investors in crude never intend to phsically acquire the crude. They only enter the market because they can make money there and no where else.

If more money is being made elsewhere then they will leave crude for that and prices could drop quite a bit.

joeltrout


Sure, that's true, but sustained high prices - we've held at $100 for a decent little bit now - tend to raise the bar on how low anyone's willing to let oil go before they start jumping back into the market. Even OPEC has said $100 is the floor at this point - they're simply not going to let oil fall back any further. If if started dropping precipitously you can bet there would be an emergency OPEC meeting to cut supplies significantly to get prices back up. Besides, where is anyone going to make any money right now other than gold? Commodities are a hot bet for sure because they're not just on-paper imagineables, they're items that people tangibly need.

The largest over-time drop in oil is from the Iranian oil shock period of about $38 to the late 90's about $10. That took almost 20 years, and was the culmination of a period in which several Asian markets had taken a major crap, Russia defaulted on its debt, the former communist countries were at a low point, and OPEC was unreigned and insane. We'll never see anything like that again, for sure. I think realistically that $100 is the new bottom line.
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Re: $107

Postby joeltrout » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 18:25:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', ' ')I think realistically that $100 is the new bottom line.


I sure hope you are right because my entire family works in the oil industry (we love paying $3.50 for a gallon of gas). However there are many factors that now play into the price of oil besides supply/demand and political turmoil. We now have speculation and hedge-fund managers.

Unless there is true peaking of oil (which hasn't happened yet according to EIA data) then it can easily fall $20 or so. Vice versa if something bad happens it could increase $20+.

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Re: Another Record

Postby Zardoz » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 18:29:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'I') know there are supply pressures. But this is really beginning to look like another engineered commodities bubble.

Time will tell. But, if it is, and the commodities market crashes, that'll be the final nail in America's coffin. We will become a third-world country.


Doubt it:

Natural Gas in New York Advances as Crude Oil Rises to Record

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')atural gas in New York advanced, erasing an earlier decline, after crude oil rose to a record above $108 a barrel.

Oil surged as investors sought higher returns available in commodities than in the equity markets as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial averages declined. Oil has risen 83 percent in the past year and natural gas 45 percent.

"It's one unified investment theme now, the state funds, the pension funds'' are buying commodities, said Tom Orr, director of research at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Connecticut. The price relationship between crude oil, gasoline and natural gas has tightened, he said.

Natural gas for April delivery rose 25.5 cents, or 2.6 percent, to settle at $10.024 per million British thermal units at 3:22 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures earlier touched $10.063, the highest intraday price since $10.215 on Jan. 5, 2006.

Crude oil for April delivery climbed $2.75, or 2.6 percent, to $107.90 a barrel in New York. Oil earlier touched $108.21, the highest since trading began in 1983.

Many investors "are trying to play the energy space as an asset class,'' said Orr.

More pension funds and other money managers plan to have in excess of 10 percent of their portfolios in commodities in the next three years, Barclays Plc said.
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Re: Another Record

Postby DantesPeak » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 19:13:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '[')url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=awaIdn_rgMp4&refer=news]Oil hits record $107.85[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude oil for April delivery rose $2.18, or 2.1 percent, to $107.33 a barrel at 12:38 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures surged to $107.85 a barrel today, the highest since trading began in 1983.


I know there are supply pressures. But this is really beginning to look like another engineered commodities bubble.

Time will tell. But, if it is, and the commodities market crashes, that'll be the final nail in America's coffin. We will become a third-world country.


People have been saying it's in a bubble for some time. Maybe it is temporarily, but I'd like to see someone provide even the barest evidence that it's a bubble - like a scientific study.

Why do we at this web site provide extraordinary details supporting our position but those making claims about an oil bubble or abundant oil supplies don't ever seem to provide any proof (that includes the Wall Street Journal and other major media sources)?
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Re: $107

Postby Pixie » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 19:15:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', ' ')I think realistically that $100 is the new bottom line.


I sure hope you are right because my entire family works in the oil industry (we love paying $3.50 for a gallon of gas). However there are many factors that now play into the price of oil besides supply/demand and political turmoil. We now have speculation and hedge-fund managers.

Unless there is true peaking of oil (which hasn't happened yet according to EIA data) then it can easily fall $20 or so. Vice versa if something bad happens it could increase $20+.

joeltrout


The EIA may not be precipitously dropping, but it shows a three year plateau. Every time OPEC says they are going to expand oil production, that lasts for about a month, thus stimulating the economy, and then they cut back again. Thus, 2005-2007 was perfectly flat in terms of 12 month average oil production. Where production is flat and demand is constantly increasing, price must rise.
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Re: Another Record

Postby Troyboy1208 » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 19:53:33

forgive me if this has already been answered. What price at the gas pump can we expect if Oil hits 108 or higher? 3.30? 4.00? Just curious. Its 3.26 right now and the gap between the price of crude and gas prices is widening...refiners margins must be getting pretty thin!
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Re: $107

Postby Gazzatrone » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 20:07:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'T')he 1980 comparo is old hat; that was beaten last week. I don't know why it's worth mentioning, IMHO.


Because it's worth reminding those that have been ramming the cliche of "adjusted for inflation" down our throats that those days are gone.

Watch 1/5th of the Peak Oil forum posters "Die Off"! Ahem!

There's a smell in the air and it smells like dark Colombian. Time for people to wake up, a new day is dawning.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aflurry', 'e')dit: ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. the line about the 1980 record is hilarious. when we were below the "inflation adjusted record" **cough** they were completely comparable. but now that that sham has ended all of a sudden they aren't comparable?


Can't wait for the rhetoric.

TV anchorman: Are we seeing the Highest prices in oil?

Invited "Expert": Well if you adjust the figures for inflation then you can see that in 1980 we had a pretty tough time of it, but as everyone knows back then $38 was $38 dollars, as it is today. Not $107, That's a high price.

TV Anchorman: But didn't you say that last week, when oil was $105 a barrel, that in real terms, oil hasn't crossed the adjusted for inflation figures and that we weren't seeing high prices.

Invited "Expert": Yes I did. But that was last week, and we're in new territory now. You have to remember that oil prices fluctuate. It's unpredictable. 1980 had the highest ever prices last week. But now it doesn't! Who knows where we'll be next week? 1999? It only takes one major oil find and the picture changes drastically. Deep sea fields contain who knows what?
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Re: Another Record

Postby kilik » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 20:08:11

National average around $3.50. Above $4.00 in some states like California and Hawaii.
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Re: Another Record

Postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 20:09:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '[')url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=awaIdn_rgMp4&refer=news]Oil hits record $107.85[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude oil for April delivery rose $2.18, or 2.1 percent, to $107.33 a barrel at 12:38 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures surged to $107.85 a barrel today, the highest since trading began in 1983.


I know there are supply pressures. But this is really beginning to look like another engineered commodities bubble.

Time will tell. But, if it is, and the commodities market crashes, that'll be the final nail in America's coffin. We will become a third-world country.


People have been saying it's in a bubble for some time. Maybe it is temporarily, but I'd like to see someone provide even the barest evidence that it's a bubble - like a scientific study.

Why do we at this web site provide extraordinary details supporting our position but those making claims about an oil bubble or abundant oil supplies don't ever seem to provide any proof (that includes the Wall Street Journal and other major media sources)?


Please, don't take my half-hearted comment as my firm position. I'm really only grasping at straws and a bubble is as good as any to explain why oil prices continue to rise at the rate they are. I cannot for one second believe that the people trading oil contracts know that they are buying based on the knowledge that it is in depletion. They are apparently clueless to peak oil. Do they stand down there on the exchange with supply number in their fists on which to base their next bid?

So, if they are clueless to supply constraints, then what other answer is there for the ever-increasing cost of a barrel? I'm not familiar enough with it to completely understand the dynamics. Perhaps I'm the one that's clueless and the price is genuinely a reflection of real, physical supply and demand issues and the market is working as designed?

I have the utmost respect for you and the work you do here, DantesPeak. Thank you.
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Re: Another Record

Postby Valdemar » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 20:55:25

Looking at Khebab's work over at TOD, it would seem a bubble doesn't add up. Likewise, the dollar has certainly not lost over 10% of its value in a couple of months.
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Re: Another Record

Postby DantesPeak » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 21:39:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', '
')
So, if they are clueless to supply constraints, then what other answer is there for the ever-increasing cost of a barrel? I'm not familiar enough with it to completely understand the dynamics. Perhaps I'm the one that's clueless and the price is genuinely a reflection of real, physical supply and demand issues and the market is working as designed?

I have the utmost respect for you and the work you do here, DantesPeak. Thank you.


Thanks, sorry to make it sound like I'm singling you out, but I guess I'm annoyed that media such as the WSJ, which normally provide good explanations, keep repeating the bubble line without coming forward with some background.

The background I see is a diesel shortage in Europe, gasoline allocations in central Canada, gasoline and diesel prices running up fast in the US Midwest as they did exactly a year ago before shortages developed, OPEC cutting back exports, and general reports in non-OECD countries that supplies are running down.

The theory I have is that a refining imbalance has developed. This is for two reasons, past peak light sweet crude and local preferences - mostly for environmental reasons and to suit established investment in vehicles, factories, etc..

In other words the output of each barrel of oil does not match the products demanded from each barrel. For example, there is not enough diesel so even more oil must be refined.

No doubt the falling value of the dollar and the growing desire of oil exporters to price in other than dollars has also contriuted to the current price surge.
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Re: $107

Postby kilik » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 21:43:07

The last days makes me wonder if we're at the foot of a superspike... Maybe $200 in mid-summer?
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Re: $107

Postby Heineken » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 22:04:18

As usual, most of us are being proven right, and most of the rest of the world proven wrong.

That's what scares me.

It scares me that we are right, and are likely to go on being right, not just about oil costs but all the rest of it.
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