[Nicholai]

Gentlemen, ladies, the battle of the ages.

We've all been reading your (OF and MQ) respective arguments with great interest and haven't quite witnessed a clash. This is your chance to really sway some minds. Whomever would like to start should first choose a topic and present a thesis. A rebuttal will follow. This thread is meant for discussion between MonteQuest and Oil-Finder in particular. My friends, best of luck.

[Nicholai]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his thread is meant for discussion between MonteQuest and Oil-Finder in particular.

[Nicholai]

I just want to see where this goes, just humor me. I'm really interested in seeing their arguments and counter-arguments and watch it evolve.

[jasonraymondson]

Who cares. Seriously?

[Oil-Finder]

Well I didn't ask for this, but here goes.

My thesis is that resources, while finite, are abundant in most cases. In some cases where they might not be abundant, humans are adaptable and can substitute to other, usually more abundant, resources. Sometimes it might take some time to switch over to the more abundant resource, so in the meantime the increasing scarcity of the old, less abundant resource will drive the price up. But that rising price will encourage people to use this resource more efficiently, thus spreading out the amount of time the remaining resource is available, until we can someday switch over to the newer resource.

In addition to non-renewable resources (which is what I was referring to in the paragraph above), other resources are made, such as agriculture. These resources, in particular, can rise in production as human demand warrants.

I'll start with some stats. First are basic grains.

World Wheat Production


World Soybean Production - of course soybeans aren't a "grain," but they are used as a de-facto grain


World Corn Production


Source for above 3 charts is here

The other major worldwide grain is rice. According to this table here, world rice production since 1981 (same as 2 of the charts above) looks like this:
Year__ thousand tons
1981 - 410,059
1982 - 421,916
1983 - 447,866
1984 - 465,175
1985 - 467,949
1986 - 468,403
1987 - 461,110
1988 - 487,069
1989 - 514,052
1990 - 518,213
1991 - 518,405
1992 - 528,262
1993 - 529,581
1994 - 538,598
1995 - 547,205
1996 - 568,609
1997 - 576,822
1998 - 578,923
1999 - 610,689
2000 - 598,459
2001 - 597,498
2002 - 568,508
2003 - 585,972
2004 - 611,650
2005 - 629,494
2006 - 631,415

In comparison, world population in 1981 was 4.529 billion (source). In 2007, world population was 6.6 billion (source). This is a 45.7% increase.

From the charts above, you can see that world wheat production in 1981 was about 445 million metric tons. In 2007 that has risen to 603.59 million metric tons. That's a 35.6% increase. So this one didn't outpace population growth.

In 1981, guesstimating from the chart, world soybean production was about 60 million metric tons. By 2007 that had risen to 220 million metric tons. That's a 266% increase. So this one definitely outpaces population growth.

Next is corn. From the chart above it shows world corn production in 1981 at about 440 million metric tons. By 2007 that had risen to 766.23 million metric tons. This is a 74.1% increase. Once again, this outpaces population growth.

Last is rice. The list I got only goes to 2006, but that's close-enough. In 1981 world rice production was 410,059 thousand metric tons. By 2006 that had risen to 631,415 thousand metric tons. This is a 54% increase. Once again, outpacing world population growth.

So, 3 of the 4 major grains (or should I say, "grains") have outpaced world population growth since 1981. So much for Malthus.

This should be a good start.

[Nicholai]

An excellent start, thank you Oil-Finder

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'A')n excellent start, thank you Oil-Finder

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'A')n excellent start, thank you Oil-Finder

[TonyPrep]

OK, but the charts don't support your hypothesis. Also, corn production has increased a lot recently. I wonder why. The other two grains don't show great recent gains. Isn't that what MQ was saying?

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'O')K, but the charts don't support your hypothesis. Also, corn production has increased a lot recently. I wonder why. The other two grains don't show great recent gains. Isn't that what MQ was saying?

[Plantagenet]

Its lovely to see that wheat and corn production are keeping up with population growth. Jules Simon, the 20th century economist who famously bet that basic commodities would grow cheaper and cheaper, would be in complete agreement with you.

However, the basic concept of population overshoot in biology is that the size of a population, over time, is limited by the least abundant necessity. Based on the data you show, the availability of basic foods like soybeans and wheat aren't going to be the least abundant necessity that will limit human population growth.

That doesn't mean there isn't another factor that will eventually turn out to be the least abundant necessity for humanity. Its certainly possible that oil, fresh water, or some other factor we aren't aware of yet will limit human population growth in the future.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 'M')Q had said, "but no more grain is being produced." This was false.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 'M')Q had said, "but no more grain is being produced." This was false.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 'W')here did he say that the only time frame was the past 2 or 3 years? Nowhere.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 'W')here did he say that the only time frame was the past 2 or 3 years? Nowhere.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 'W')here did he say that the only time frame was the past 2 or 3 years? Nowhere.

[s0cks]

Its all very well to say we can replace one resource with another but where is it happening WITHOUT sacraficing and destroying the very planet we depend on?

There may well be thousands of years of certain resources, but are we willing to drilll, dig, and mine ANYWHERE for it? I'm guessing we will, whatever the cost...

[evilgenius]

The flaw in Oil Finder's logic is the expectation that something (growth) almost entirely, but not quite, dependent upon a single input (cheap oil) can go on in the face of that input dwindling. The savior from left field could be tech, but there needs to be a discussion of the efficacy of tech toward this problem. Supercapacitos in farm tractors might not be far off. Solar and wind recharging that takes up a small amount of the farmer's land relatively may be around the corner. Is it possible that the world has the insecticide and fertilizer problem in hand? Can these things be done quickly in the event that there is another ME cutoff or similar oil shock which we might not make it back from? Can the ag system survive if the financial superstructure doesn't ? What about the argument that world population is stabilizing, can that help save us?