[KevO]

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

[chris-h]

went very close to 104
the question now is are we now happy ?

[dukey]

cheap

[steam_cannon]

Mar 03 2008


I was thinking if oil prices are still on the uptrend due to peaking
and if the up trend will be fairly stable, then this is in the range
where prices should be. Here's my back of the napkin guestimate...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'A')nd here's look at the price window trend for yearly price averages using a different data set thanks to Zahl.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', 'N')ymex closes are:

2002 - $26.05
2003 - $30.95
2004 - $41.37
2005 - $56.79
2006 - $66.54
2007 - $72.56

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/crude2.html

------------------------------------------------------

From: OPEC President: "$100 not very high"
http://peakoil.com/fortopic35325.html

[EnergyUnlimited]

I think, folks, we are actually observing dollar going down a drain...
I would not be surprised to see $130 within next month or two.

There is some sort of positive feedback loop in the FED.
The more dollar is collapsing, the lower interest rates are turning to be.

[IanC]

I agree with Unlimited. The main story isn't exactly the price of oil, but the declining value of the currency used to trade oil. Can someone post a graph showing the value of the Dollar in relation to the Euro? I'll bet the Europeans hardly feel the difference between $95 oil and $103 oil because the Euro is worth so much more than the dollar.

-IanC
Portland

PS: I also agree that this is still pretty cheap.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I') think, folks, we are actually observing dollar going down a drain...

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I') think, folks, we are actually observing dollar going down a drain...

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I') think, folks, we are actually observing dollar going down a drain...

[mididoctors]

the correlation doesn't seem overly tight.

jan 04 to jan 06 is pretty flat

is there a re-coupling of the euro to the dollar and the comparison needs to be made with some third basket of currencies or is the price a geological/other effect?

Boris
London

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I') think, folks, we are actually observing dollar going down a drain....

[Lighthouse]

Click here for full NYT article

[IslandCrow]

To late, that's been topped already: BBC: Oil sets fresh record of $103.95, although the closing price was a bit lower.

[nocar]

Question: Do Europeans find oil more expensive than previously, despite the fact that oil is priced in the depreciating US dollar?

I can not anwer the question in regard to Euro, but these are my prices in Swedish Krona (SEK) which I have taken notes of, more or less regularly. The dollar price in SEK has gone down no less than in Euros, I believe.

Dec 2003 219 SEK per barrel of Brent
Dec 2004 309
Dec 2005 430
Dec 2006 427
Nov 2007 573
Mars 2008 626

So yes, oil has become more expensive also in Europe. The price increase in gasoline is considerable less, because most of the price at the pump is taxes (which generally goes back to people in public services likes schools, health, police, welfare, child allowances, etc. )

nocar

[alokin]

what is about the normal oil price decline in spring??
Didn't a whole lot of people say we will see prices decline in spring?

[Concerned]

Oh my god they are admitting it?

Now we need to hear the old line about how great things are because we use half the oil per dollar of GDP.

Of course no one will inflation adjust the bottom 80% of US wage earners income and compare it against the graph.

Totally screwed.

[pedalling_faster]

maybe there is a silver lining in the consistent under-statement of inflation numbers by the Fed.

the US government says inflation is 4%, subtracting out energy & food costs before doing the calculations.

the real inflation numbers are higher.

if the inflation numbers were calculated neutrally, we would find that oil at $103 US (in 2008) is cheaper than oil at $103 US (in 1980).

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', 'i')f the inflation numbers were calculated neutrally, we would find that oil at $103 US (in 2008) is cheaper than oil at $103 US (in 1980).

[pedalling_faster]

this reminds me of the Jimmy Carter fireside-chat-ish speech when he talks about people wearing sweaters. i didn't actually watch it, but it's part of history. also, related to Carter being treated with derision.

maybe we could have a Peak Oil MSN video teleconference, featuring members in sweaters talking about Peak Oil & other things to spice it up. (the technology would be, MSN Messenger video, Camtasia video capture, a very fast dual core or a quad core machine.)

i think people are getting the message, when they buy gas, as one example. just not from el pResidente. Bubble Chimp does not have a proclivity for forthrightness, i don't think he's going to host a "turn down the heat & wear sweaters" type town hall-ish speech.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', 'S')o, the main fact is, the autorithy admit now that the price of crude oil in 2008 is higher than in 1980. And what happened in 1980 ("OH my god, we need to consume less petrol!")... doesn't seem to happen now. Interesting.