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The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

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The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby roccman » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 20:44:14

"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 20:55:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'p')lease assume the crash position...

http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/Chart.html?symbol=USD/JPY


The effect on bonds should be ugly tomorrow.

The yield on the ten year should spike.

The Fed is failing miserably to bring down long term rates.

A year ago the Fed rate was 5.25% and the rate on a thirty year mortgage was 5.70%.

Now the Fed rate is 3.00% and a thirty year mortgage has actually gone UP to 5.80%.

The Fed needs to stop trying to re-inflate the housing market and go back to its core job of stabilizing the dollar.

If it means a repeat of the early 1980s recessions, so be it.
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby ohanian » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 21:08:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')The Fed needs to stop trying to re-inflate the housing market and go back to its core job of stabilizing the dollar.

If it means a repeat of the early 1980s recessions, so be it.


Bullshit! The purpose of fed is

To provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/GeneralInfo/fract/

It's fed job to stop stock market crashs by printing money , it's not the fed job to maintain a strong dollar. A strong dollar is not elastic.
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby seahorse » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 21:24:50

Chart is not opening for me. What does it show?
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby ohanian » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 21:31:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'C')hart is not opening for me. What does it show?


Try this one.

http://www.ozforex.com.au/cgi-bin/chart ... eriod=Hour
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby seahorse » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 21:45:19

Thanks Ohanian. That's working for me.
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 21:51:55

help me out guys. so it is falling against the dollar. I thought the dollar was suppose to be tanking on its own? I assume this must have something to do with the carry trade?

So people are selling their dollars, buying yen to pay back the loans that they used to buy bonds denominated in dollars? Are Yen interest rates going up? or is this a sign of how bad off the dollar bond market is?

Someone connect some dots for me?
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 23:16:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...
That's great! Not that I'm a fan of doom... :roll: Just that it's interesting seeing
predictions pan out. Like the other day shopping, there were signs posted
apologizing for the cost of milk and eggs, made me crack a doomer smile... :-D

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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby ohanian » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 23:36:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'h')elp me out guys. so it is falling against the dollar. I thought the dollar was suppose to be tanking on its own? I assume this must have something to do with the carry trade?

So people are selling their dollars, buying yen to pay back the loans that they used to buy bonds denominated in dollars? Are Yen interest rates going up? or is this a sign of how bad off the dollar bond market is?

Someone connect some dots for me?


First off: The Japanese Yen is not falling against the dollar. The US dollar is falling against the Yen. In the past, 1 dollar is equal to 106 yen. Today 1 dollar is equal to 103 yen.

Second: The dollar is tanking against all major currencies.

Third: The carry trade is unwinding. Why? Who knows? Maybe the world economy is tanking.

Fourth: The Yen interest rate is about 0.5% per annum It is NOT going up.
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby skiwi » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 23:41:22

Aussie Dollar dumped on wave of risk aversion

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Australian dollar extended losses, pulling further away from recent 24-year peaks against the US dollar on Monday as risk aversion pushed investors to stay clear of riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies...
..The Aussie fell to its lowest in nearly three weeks against the Japanese yen as investors aggressively unwound risky carry trades and sought safety in low-yielding currencies. The Aussie dived to 95.85 US cents its lowest since February 13 - from 99.19/29 yen late on Friday.

By 9:25am the Aussie slumped to $0.9282/85 from $0.9459/64 on Friday,well below a 24-year high of $0.9498 struck on February 28.


Sweet :lol: ... The $NZ will probably be even worse off :twisted:
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby JohnDenver » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 23:43:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'h')elp me out guys. so it is falling against the dollar. I thought the dollar was suppose to be tanking on its own? I assume this must have something to do with the carry trade?

So people are selling their dollars, buying yen to pay back the loans that they used to buy bonds denominated in dollars? Are Yen interest rates going up? or is this a sign of how bad off the dollar bond market is?

Someone connect some dots for me?


wc, as an American who lives in Japan, I've been closely following the USD-YEN rate for more than 25 years. The current drop is nothing out of the ordinary. Similar 5-yen drops have occurred dozens times since I've been watching. Look at the ten year chart.

Basically, what we have here is Roccman needlessly soiling another diaper.
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby jato » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 03:20:32

According to JohnDenver's chart, support appears to be around 100 Yen. Lets see what happens.
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby JohnDenver » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 04:33:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'A')ccording to JohnDenver's chart, support appears to be around 100 Yen. Lets see what happens.


Yes, that's true Jato. 100 yen is always a psychological barrier. It did break through that mark once, however, and hit the low 80s in 1995 (Note that the vertical scale is backwards to show that lower values indicate a stronger yen):

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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby Gerben » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 05:40:44

The US$ losing value plus low interest rates. Does that mean we can expect a Dollar carry trade?
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 11:01:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'T')he US$ losing value plus low interest rates. Does that mean we can expect a Dollar carry trade?


Yes, that is very possible, and in the short-term that would exacerbate US dollar weakness as investors borrow in dollars to buy assets in other currencies. The yen is strengthening on global risk adversion. However, as per JD's chart, it is not back to its highs of 81.99 yen to the dollar in 1995.
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 15:38:15

Perhaps for Japan, it will be 1989 all over again, only they never fully recovered from 1989 in the first place.

As for the Fed, what does this say?

Section 8. The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defense and general welfare of the United States; but all duties, imposts and excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

...

To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures;

...
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 17:40:12

I think JD's chart shows that the US/Japanese exchange rate is nothing to fret about. But food supplies, that could be an issue here pretty soon. I really don't think I'm going to like it. You probably aren't going to either.
Last edited by PenultimateManStanding on Mon 03 Mar 2008, 21:49:13, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 17:54:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', 'P')erhaps for Japan, it will be 1989 all over again, only they never fully recovered from 1989 in the first place.

As for the Fed, what does this say?

Section 8. The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defense and general welfare of the United States; but all duties, imposts and excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

...

To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures;

...


...And Congress voted to create the Federal Reserve to do the job for them. :)
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Re: The Yen - yep unwinding...right on schedule...

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 18:21:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..And Congress voted to create the Federal Reserve to do the job for them.


Coining money is one of the non-delegable powers held by the United States Congress. The creation of the Federal Reserve 'to do the job for them' is exactly such a transfer of power that is forbidden.
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