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Oil price closes above $100

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby Cyrus » Fri 29 Feb 2008, 11:47:15

We are currently above 100 on the nymex and everbody is passing it off like nothing. 6 Months ago people would be shitting themselves. Moral of the story: things are happening so fast that even the intelligent people here can't keep up. Scary.
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby bonehead » Fri 29 Feb 2008, 12:37:27

Whether declared or not,It's "war on the middle class"as Lou Dobbs would say.You lose your middle class and you lose your democracy.What does blow my mind a little is that if your an individual trader in futures you can make money whether the market's going up or down,this bull market must be a way for hedge fund managers to reduce risk,not to mention the weak dollar and inflation.The money just keeps rolling in no matter what the fundamentals say.It's really scary that we've reached this point while supplies are building and if the economy really starts to nosedive,it'll take the rest of the world with it.World War 3 anyone?
Gimme some demand destruction.
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby Ferretlover » Fri 29 Feb 2008, 12:40:28

102.59 a bit ago...
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby LastViking » Fri 29 Feb 2008, 21:55:10

As Frank & Crow have commented upthread, this has been mostly an American-centric episode since Autumn. Most of the planet's users are paying less than before. Via oil & gasoline prices, Americans are not seeing a commodity seachange as is implied in many of their comments here. They are simply seeing how crappy their buck is. The shock they feel at the cash register is similar to that experienced in Argentina, Mexico and long ago in New Zealand ... in short, it sucks while your currency is being devalued by the global community.
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby Valdemar » Fri 29 Feb 2008, 23:33:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', 'A')s Frank & Crow have commented upthread, this has been mostly an American-centric episode since Autumn. Most of the planet's users are paying less than before. Via oil & gasoline prices, Americans are not seeing a commodity seachange as is implied in many of their comments here. They are simply seeing how crappy their buck is. The shock they feel at the cash register is similar to that experienced in Argentina, Mexico and long ago in New Zealand ... in short, it sucks while your currency is being devalued by the global community.


What planet are you living on? I've seen petrol and diesel here explode in price within a few months, along with domestic energy bills sky-rocketing to add insult to injury. Last I checked, the pound wasn't a lame duck of a currency like the dollari and we're certainly feeling it financially.

To say the US spot price is down entirely to the dollar's free-fall is simplistic at best, disinformation at worst. There's no way the dollar is a quarter of it's value from 2002, simple as. We may not be paying as much as Americans, but the rest of the world is paying for this crude that isn't growing at all that tremendous a rate.
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 BUT STILL NOT HIGHEST EVER

Postby ChefBoyardee » Sat 01 Mar 2008, 01:13:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', 'S')o in 1980 oil cost $38 but actually cost $107... In 2008 we are paying $102 for a barrel of oil...


Why do these business experts I see on television try to ram this tripe down our throats?!?! Who really cares if we paid an adjusted price of $107/barrel back in 1980 but only $102/barrel in early 2008?!?!

The 1980 price was just a spike but there was no decline in oil production. Today, we have a steadily increasing price over a long term accompanied by an apparent plateau in production. This is putting an unexperimented strain on our economy.

What is more tiring? Holding 107 lbs for one minute or 102 lbs for 24 hours? Come on business gurus! There will be a time when this trick will no longer work.

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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby yesplease » Sat 01 Mar 2008, 01:23:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', 'W')hat planet are you living on? I've seen petrol and diesel here explode in price within a few months
How much is "explode"?
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby FreddyH » Sat 01 Mar 2008, 22:23:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', 'A')s Frank & Crow have commented upthread, this has been mostly an American-centric episode since Autumn. Most of the planet's users are paying less than before. Via oil & gasoline prices, Americans are not seeing a commodity seachange as is implied in many of their comments here. They are simply seeing how crappy their buck is. The shock they feel at the cash register is similar to that experienced in Argentina, Mexico and long ago in New Zealand ... in short, it sucks while your currency is being devalued by the global community.


What planet are you living on? I've seen petrol and diesel here explode in price within a few months, along with domestic energy bills sky-rocketing to add insult to injury. Last I checked, the pound wasn't a lame duck of a currency like the dollari and we're certainly feeling it financially.

To say the US spot price is down entirely to the dollar's free-fall is simplistic at best, disinformation at worst. There's no way the dollar is a quarter of it's value from 2002, simple as. We may not be paying as much as Americans, but the rest of the world is paying for this crude that isn't growing at all that tremendous a rate.


Methinx that you meant that spot is up ... not down. Here in Canada, our dollar has gained 65% against the buck. NO PAIN here when filling up. Today, it's 50-cents a gallon cheaper than filling up during the big spike back in 2005.
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 BUT STILL NOT HIGHEST EVER

Postby FreddyH » Sat 01 Mar 2008, 22:38:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ChefBoyardee', 'T')he 1980 price was just a spike but there was no decline in oil production. Today, we have a steadily increasing price over a long term accompanied by an apparent plateau in production. This is putting an unexperimented strain on our economy.


Sorry grasshopper, but u are wrong on all counts: the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58. Production did not reattain that 67-mbd level 'til 1991. This episode of price spikes started in 2003 right after the Iraq2 and production has risen with it from 78-mbd to 87. And there is absolutely no visible strain on the economy. Most economists agree that the the drop in GDP growth (0.8% vs 3.5%) is substantially due to the money crunch associated with the sub prime mtg fiasco.
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby dukey » Sat 01 Mar 2008, 22:44:18

diesel is selling for £1.13 which is like around $10/gallon
business as usual
nothing has changed
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby Valdemar » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 00:21:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '
')
Methinx that you meant that spot is up ... not down. Here in Canada, our dollar has gained 65% against the buck. NO PAIN here when filling up. Today, it's 50-cents a gallon cheaper than filling up during the big spike back in 2005.


Methinks you need to look at your reading comprehension, as you'd know if I meant the price was down, I'd have put a comma there (you selectively highlighted part of a sentence for starters). But I didn't, and so I meant something completely different. Try again.

And there is pain here. And the price is far higher than it was in October. And our pound has gained against the dollar. Your point?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '
')
Sorry grasshopper, but u are wrong on all counts: the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58. Production did not reattain that 67-mbd level 'til 1991. This episode of price spikes started in 2003 right after the Iraq2 and production has risen with it from 78-mbd to 87. And there is absolutely no visible strain on the economy. Most economists agree that the the drop in GDP growth (0.8% vs 3.5%) is substantially due to the money crunch associated with the sub prime mtg fiasco.


Funny how we didn't have Big Oil and international energy organisations considering peak oil at that time then, you know, like we do now. I find it funny how you say there's no visible strain on the economy from oil, it's only that pesky credit crunch instead.

Well, that's okay then. We'll just ignore this financial meltdown in the making because it's not down to oil. Thank Jebus, I thought we were in trouble then. Oh, wait...
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 BUT STILL NOT HIGHEST EVER

Postby ChefBoyardee » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 00:24:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'S')orry grasshopper, but u are wrong on all counts: the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58. Production did not reattain that 67-mbd level 'til 1991. This episode of price spikes started in 2003 right after the Iraq2 and production has risen with it from 78-mbd to 87. And there is absolutely no visible strain on the economy. Most economists agree that the the drop in GDP growth (0.8% vs 3.5%) is substantially due to the money crunch associated with the sub prime mtg fiasco.


Interesting stuff! If what you say is true, prompting me to do some of my own personal research, then I thank you in advance FreddyH for the correction. We should never fear to face the truth.

The one thing that I have an objection with is that you say "And there is absolutely no visible strain on the economy." This is by no means a tit for tat reply. However I, and perhaps many other readers, would find that a little hard to believe.

It's time for me to do some more research...

One possibly corrected Chef Boyardee
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby DantesPeak » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 00:40:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58


So I guess what is being said here is that Iran reduced it's oil production in 1979 from 6 million bpd to zero because it was reacting to market forces and not the widespread effects of the Iranian revolution?
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby joewp » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 04:31:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58


So I guess what is being said here is that Iran reduced it's oil production in 1979 from 6 million bpd to zero because it was reacting to market forces and not the widespread effects of the Iranian revolution?


And I guess that the Iran-Iraq war didn't severely curtail both country's oil extraction and the US didn't have one of it's most severe recessions lasting until 1983?
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby FreddyH » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 04:41:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58


So I guess what is being said here is that Iran reduced it's oil production in 1979 from 6 million bpd to zero because it was reacting to market forces and not the widespread effects of the Iranian revolution?


U are misinformed wrt Iran, Dante. If u visit the BP website, u will find that Iran peaked way back in 1974 @ 6.1-mbd. By 1979, its production had halved to 3.2-mbd and the low for Iran was 1.3-mbd in 1981. Only 2-mbd of the 9-mbd collapse that i mentioned was attributable to Iran.

The drop in production that i referred to is almost exclusively attributable to Saudi Arabia. Those too young to remember the politics of the period will not be aware that KSA shuttered almost 80% of its capacity from 1980 to 1985. The KSA monthly crude record was set (and still stands) in Nov/1980 @ 10.4-mbd. By Aug/1985 the flow was only 2.3-mbd.
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby FreddyH » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 04:47:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58


And I guess that the Iran-Iraq war didn't severely curtail both country's oil extraction and the US didn't have one of it's most severe recessions lasting until 1983?


Sorry, Iraq's production fell less than 2-mbd in 80-81.
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby joewp » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 04:59:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58


So I guess what is being said here is that Iran reduced it's oil production in 1979 from 6 million bpd to zero because it was reacting to market forces and not the widespread effects of the Iranian revolution?


U are misinformed wrt Iran, Dante. If u visit the BP website, u will find that Iran peaked way back in 1974 @ 6.1-mbd. By 1979, its production had halved to 3.2-mbd and the low for Iran was 1.3-mbd in 1981. Only 2-mbd of the 9-mbd collapse that i mentioned was attributable to Iran.

The drop in production that i referred to is almost exclusively attributable to Saudi Arabia. Those too young to remember the politics of the period will not be aware that KSA shuttered almost 80% of its capacity from 1980 to 1985. The KSA monthly crude record was set (and still stands) in Nov/1980 @ 10.4-mbd. By Aug/1985 the flow was only 2.3-mbd.


Of course, you're forgetting that the North Sea and the North Slope extraction added over 5mb/d by 2003, which was the reason KSA shuttered their capacity during that time. AND Iran and Iraq extraction recovered almost 3mb/d through 1985 too. So of course the "swing producer" will scale back their extraction during a time of reduced prices due to increased supply.

Actually, outside of historical revisionism (and perhaps a personal stake in a later peak) I wonder what your point is.
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby FreddyH » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 05:31:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58


So I guess what is being said here is that Iran reduced it's oil production in 1979 from 6 million bpd to zero because it was reacting to market forces and not the widespread effects of the Iranian revolution?


U are misinformed wrt Iran, Dante. If u visit the BP website, u will find that Iran peaked way back in 1974 @ 6.1-mbd. By 1979, its production had halved to 3.2-mbd and the low for Iran was 1.3-mbd in 1981. Only 2-mbd of the 9-mbd collapse that i mentioned was attributable to Iran.

The drop in production that i referred to is almost exclusively attributable to Saudi Arabia. Those too young to remember the politics of the period will not be aware that KSA shuttered almost 80% of its capacity from 1980 to 1985. The KSA monthly crude record was set (and still stands) in Nov/1980 @ 10.4-mbd. By Aug/1985 the flow was only 2.3-mbd.


Of course, you're forgetting that the North Sea and the North Slope extraction added over 5mb/d by 2003, which was the reason KSA shuttered their capacity during that time. AND Iran and Iraq extraction recovered almost 3mb/d through 1985 too. So of course the "swing producer" will scale back their extraction during a time of reduced prices due to increased supply.

Actually, outside of historical revisionism (and perhaps a personal stake in a later peak) I wonder what your point is.


joe, it is unfortunate that this thread is interrupting your watching Saturday Nite Live. During the next commercial, go back one page and u will see that a statement was made that oil production did not fall during the 1980 price episode. I corrected that by referring the poster to the 9-mbd fall in Supply. Feel free to continue in joining the others in their defense of the 1980 plateau but imouddahere.
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby DantesPeak » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 13:27:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58


So I guess what is being said here is that Iran reduced it's oil production in 1979 from 6 million bpd to zero because it was reacting to market forces and not the widespread effects of the Iranian revolution?


U are misinformed wrt Iran, Dante. If u visit the BP website, u will find that Iran peaked way back in 1974 @ 6.1-mbd. By 1979, its production had halved to 3.2-mbd and the low for Iran was 1.3-mbd in 1981. Only 2-mbd of the 9-mbd collapse that i mentioned was attributable to Iran.

The drop in production that i referred to is almost exclusively attributable to Saudi Arabia. Those too young to remember the politics of the period will not be aware that KSA shuttered almost 80% of its capacity from 1980 to 1985. The KSA monthly crude record was set (and still stands) in Nov/1980 @ 10.4-mbd. By Aug/1985 the flow was only 2.3-mbd.



Image

Image

Apparently you and I have a different way of interpreting the same data.
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Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER

Postby FreddyH » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 16:27:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'A')pparently you and I have a different way of interpreting the same data.


thanx for the charts.
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