[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wtshtf_in_ks', 's')omewhere i heard there is someone that has pointed out that the average size suburban lawn is about the space a subsistence farmer in vietnam makes do with.

[Tyler_JC]

Considering that solar panels are more efficient at converting sunlight into energy than plants, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

And don't kid yourself, these folks aren't going to be growing ANYTHING.



However, they do have a lot of south-facing surface area that could be converted to energy production. Or they could put some solar-thermal water heaters on their roofs and reduce the amount of energy they waste heating up the morning shower.

Industrial agriculture as a tremendous advantage over your typical subsistence farm in that it is far cheaper thanks to the economies of scale.

More likely than suburban farming is suburban energy production.

Industrial agriculture is capable of producing huge amounts of food extremely cheaply. Your average household simply isn't capable of feeding itself based off of its own land.

Nano is right, Big Farms Incorporated is here to stay.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wtshtf_in_ks', 'h')e says that with high oil prices we might expect to see more labor substitution, conventional agriculture profits fall, and so on. but we don't see that.

[max_in_wa]

Can I be a raving lunatic, or at least the lunatic fringe?

One side of the industrial agriculture equation that isn't discussed a whole lot is natural gas. A quick google gives me some figures of around a 70ish year supply based on current reserves. Natural gas is important because it is the feed stock for ammonia which is a component in making fertilizer. Subtract out the fertilizer from our farm equation and it wouldn't matter if we had fusion powered combines -- they'd have nothing to process.

This where the organic gardening hordes will tout alternatives, and truly, I'm not insensitive. When I was a kid, we had a huge organic garden and I'm planning my own this year. But to feed the number of people we have on this planet will take a lot of cow pies.

Incidentally, one of the worst investment choices I ever made was related to fertilizer, TNH to be exact. I was in for an average price around $22/share -- held it for some time but the price didn't really go anywhere and the dividend wasn't keeping me satisfied. Nat. gas prices started to rise a bit so I decided I might as well get out before that hurt their bottom line -- I made a very modest profit, and had made a bit with the dividends too when I bailed near the end of 2005. A year later, the subsidies for corn ethanol kicked in and probably some good management by the company to boot and the price started to rise -- closed to today near $140/share AND the dividend is great. I've lost actual money on stocks before plenty of times, but this is the stock I cry about. This experience taught me to respect fertilizer.

[xerces]

Industrial agriculture currently uses ~5% of our total energy expenditure. Even if oil inputs were reduced to zero, we would still scrape up enough energy to meet that 5% threshold. So I don't see industrial ag ending anytime soon.

The more interesting question is how the industry will transform itself. Because certain aspects of conventional agriculture is going to be merely cost competitive with organic ag instead of beating it hands down. Mostly we're talking about perishable fruits and produce.

Geography also matters, broken, hilly terrain found in upstate New York is never going to be suitable for large-scale combine agriculture. But it's perfect for growing produce to supply to NYC. Some geographic areas are devastated due to the nature of industrial ag, so that puts on constraint on output. Other areas(under organic agriculture) experience increases in yields over time, this balances out the supply to a point.

So we may end up with Industrial Ag running for a long time, being focused on the growing of grains and pulses.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_in_wa', 'O')ne side of the industrial agriculture equation that isn't discussed a whole lot is natural gas. A quick google gives me some figures of around a 70ish year supply based on current reserves. Natural gas is important because it is the feed stock for ammonia which is a component in making fertilizer. Subtract out the fertilizer from our farm equation and it wouldn't matter if we had fusion powered combines -- they'd have nothing to process.

[MrBill]

max_in_wa, N[sub]2[/sub] fertilizer can be made using natural gas, of course, but there is no shortage of nitrogen. It is as common as the air we breathe.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Anhydrous Ammonia

Anhydrous ammonia (NH3) is produced commercially by reacting nitrogen gas (N2) from the atmosphere in the presence of a catalyst with steam and with methane (natural gas, CH4). The tonnage of anhydrous ammonia used in agriculture is greater than any other form of nitrogen fertilizer due to its lower cost per pound of nitrogen and its relative nutrient density (82% nitrogen by weight) which keeps the transportation cost per ton of nitrogen as low as possible. Anhydrous ammonia is a gas at normal temperatures and atmospheric pressure but converts to the liquid state when sufficiently pressurized. The need for pressurized containers and additional personal safety precautions reduces some of the advantages for anhydrous ammonia over more easily handled forms of nitrogen.

All other forms of inorganic commercial nitrogen fertilizer are derived from anhydrous ammonia. They are more expensive per pound of nitrogen because of the additional processing steps involved in their manufacture and greater transportation costs because they have lower nutrient density than anhydrous ammonia. These other forms of nitrogen fertilizer have advantages in terms of personal safety and ease of storing, handling, and application which make them attractive to many farmers in spite of the higher cost per pound of nitrogen .

[Heineken]

There will be less food, and it will cost much more.

There will be fewer people.

There will be desperation and mayhem and mortality.

That's how it's going to work out. The signs are everywhere.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '[')b]There will be less food, and it will cost much more.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_in_wa', ' ')A quick google gives me some figures of around a 70ish year supply based on current reserves.

[dinopello]

I remember seeing this on the news a few weeks ago. What do you think ?

Food Freedom Day

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4'):32 PM EST, January 18, 2008

The average American will have earn enough money by Feb. 5 to pay for food for the entire year, the Virginia Farm Bureau Federation says.

That's why the Farm Bureau is billing Feb. 5 as USA Food Freedom Day.

American families and individuals on average spend 10 percent of their disposable personal income for food eaten at home and at restaurants, or about $2,400 per person, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Department of Economic Research Service.

In the 35 days between Jan. 1 and Feb. 4, the average American will earn enough to pay for his or her food supply for the whole year. In 1980, USA Food Freedom Day would have been Feb. 20 — 15 days later than in 2008, according to the farm bureau.

The Department of Agriculture says food is more affordable today because of to a widening gap between growth in per-capita incomes and the amount of money spent for food. And that's happening even as Americans today buy more expensive convenience foods and more food away from home, the Virginia Farm Bureau Federation said.

[Tyler_JC]

Food is still extremely cheap.

Americans spend far less on food as a % of income than they did in the 1960s/1970s.

And if we ate like we did in the 1960s, we would spend even less money on food.

Because food prices fell so far, so fast, we swapped from eating mostly cheap home-made dinners to mostly prepared foods and restaurant meals.

The average American used to eat out only on rare occasions, now we eat out nearly every other day!

[dinopello]

Tyler, it would be interesting to see that calculated out. It really depends it seems on what and where you eat. I am always amazed at how cheap prepared (ie TV dinners) foods are and fast food ($1 big mac for example). I don't eat that because I don't like or trust it. To make a real meal can cost as much and more if you buy organic/free range etc.

But the basic point you make I think is right and what the article implies. I therefore just bought the ETF with the symbol MOO - its an Ag fund.

[Heineken]

Before Americans can start paying for their food or anything else, they have to get to Tax Freedom Day, which in 2007 occurred on April 30.

If food has become cheaper, it has been at the cost of irreversible environmental damage inflicted by Big Ag.

There are enormous hidden costs in the cost of food, just as there are enormous hidden costs in the cost of gasoline and other fossil fuels.

What has happened to seafood will happen to other foods. Seafood is now incredibly expensive, scarcer, and of lower quality. And the ocean biome has been wrecked by our mining of it for protein.

[max_in_wa]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4'):32 PM EST, January 18, 2008
...
American families and individuals on average spend 10 percent of their disposable personal income for food eaten at home and at restaurants, or about $2,400 per person, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Department of Economic Research Service.
...

[Blacksmith]

I hope the $6.66 per day doen't include beer.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Blacksmith', 'I') hope the $6.66 per day doen't include beer.

[LoneSnark]

max_in_wa, not everyone is as flamboyant as you are with their money. $6.66 a day seems reasonable to me as I rarely eat out and avoid lattes like the plague.

[MarkJames]

Plenty of low income people spend more than $6.66 per day on coffee, cigarettes, junk food, beer and instant lottery tickets. Then they complain about the price of bread, milk and gas.

[LoneSnark]

I spend more on gasoline every year than I do to feed my entire household. If I traded in my SUV for a motorcycle I would have plenty of money to cover a higher food bill.