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THE Bond Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby deeciduous » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 20:39:22

How many people can withdraw their savings before they shut the banks?
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 21:59:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deeciduous', 'H')ow many people can withdraw their savings before they shut the banks?

Between 0% and 100% depending on whether they pre-empt the run or sit back and watch it happen. In the case of Northern Rock, more than half and it is still open for business.

It depends though in what form you have your savings. If it's cash or equities, you can cash out instantly or upon expiry of notice period if applicable. If they are in paper, property funds or something else that cannot be instantly liquidated, you're screwed. The first few people through the door will grab the few percent of ready cash available and everyone else will get nothing but a forced sale and a wait until a buyer can be found. This is starting to happen already, though it tends to be limited to large investors. For example when you hear about funds halting redemptions, that is what's happening, someone getting into trouble and a run by institutional investors.

I'm in cash and supposedly insured. But if you're trampled, you're trampled.
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby dinopello » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 22:03:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deeciduous', 'H')ow many people can withdraw their savings before they shut the banks?

Between 0% and 100% depending on whether they pre-empt the run or sit back and watch it happen. In the case of Northern Rock, more than half and it is still open for business.


I don't think 100% of the people could get their cash. Has something to do with our fractional reserve banking system.
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 22:07:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'I') don't think 100% of the people could get their cash. Has something to do with our fractional reserve banking system.

In theory, Northern Rock could have been drained by its depositors to zero and cast adrift as a husk to implode. All bets are off only if all other banks are in the same boat. This was not the case on this occasion. As to the future, who knows?
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby Iaato » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 22:19:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', ' ')literally fight. It's your creditworthiness or theirs, it's their pick, and "they" are not the banks. Some will screw up, but I do not expect to see the US among them. You know they are about to get a willing new labour pool. They will be able to control it better if they practice self-discipline and stand back now.


Well, how else are they going to replace all those energy slaves when the oil's all gone?
“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value ---- zero.” --Voltaire
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby HEADER_RACK » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 18:07:10

Fitch downgrades SCA

Another bond insurer downgraded.
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 25 Feb 2008, 17:16:13

S&P reaffirmed Ambac's & MBIA's ratings on Monday, sending the stock market into an upward frenzy. Armageddon is postponed another day.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tocks Rise As Ambac Ratings Reaffirmed Monday Feb 25, 3:00 pm ET By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Wall Street Surges As Standard & Poor's Reaffirms Ambac and MBIA Ratings
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street bolted higher Monday after Standard & Poor's affirmed its ratings for Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc., raising hopes that troubled bond insurers will emerge from the credit market crisis on solid footing.
There has been speculation that Ambac might find sufficient capital early this week to hold onto the stellar "AAA" rating it needs to remain in the municipal bond business. Rating agencies including S&P have been under pressure to downgrade the insurers, particularly Ambac, after they had weakened their financial positions by insuring subprime mortgage securities that later collapsed. ...
Yahoo article
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby roccman » Mon 25 Feb 2008, 17:18:22

Yes EB...we are not in Kansas anymore... Gives me time to back the XLF put truck up...
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 25 Feb 2008, 17:25:19

Hey rocc, think this news will help out the muni auctions, or are buyers going to see through this latest billow of smoke & mirrors? My guess is that bond buyers are a bit more savvy than today's pump monkeys.
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby seahorse2 » Mon 25 Feb 2008, 17:36:17

Keep in mind that the affirmation of the AAA rating will not pay the defaulting mortgages, which is, of course, the underlying problem. You can't wallpaper over rot and expect it to go away.
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby roccman » Mon 25 Feb 2008, 17:45:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'H')ey rocc, think this news will help out the muni auctions, or are buyers going to see through this latest billow of smoke & mirrors? My guess is that bond buyers are a bit more savvy than today's pump monkeys.

Someone ...somewhere...needs to buy time. Iraq was invaded in March 03. Lipstick on dead and rotting pig.
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Mon 25 Feb 2008, 19:36:59

If the insurers are getting bailed out then what’s the point of having insurers? Why not just have the FED bail people out when there’s a problem. Skip the middle-man, no need for all these alphabet rating systems. It’s Wall Street not Sesame Street!
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby roccman » Mon 25 Feb 2008, 20:06:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'I')f the insurers are getting bailed out then what’s the point of having insurers? Why not just have the FED bail people out when there’s a problem. Skip the middle-man, no need for all these alphabet rating systems. It’s Wall Street not Sesame Street!


It needs to look like a free market so the pigmen can eat at the trough.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby roccman » Tue 26 Feb 2008, 11:44:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') feel like crawling under a rocc, I have a quick question... How would you structure a portfolio? What are the percentages / ratios / weighted toward cash, bonds, equities, bullion, money under the mattress, collecting seeds ... etc?

Well an expert I am not...but these look tasty at the trough. Most all of these are 2010 Call Options:
XTO - nat gas
GDX - gold
KOL -brand new coal etf (no calls avail)
DBC - food
FSNGX - nat gas fund
PBR - petro brazil
ADM - big agri
DBA - food fund
CCC- water infrasturcture
FXI - china etf
K kellogs - food
HB - caskets/body bags (bird flu play)
MMM 3m - (bird flu play)
DE - agr/mach/
TGLDX - gold - Hathaway runs this mut fund

I am looking at XLF as a put...(financials)
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby Flowerr » Wed 27 Feb 2008, 08:25:15

You guys are likefarmers trying to sell the healthy cows in a mad cow plague.
What energy wasted. All the cows are going to die, forget about it, and get ready...
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby roccman » Wed 12 Mar 2008, 14:26:59

"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby RonMN » Wed 12 Mar 2008, 14:57:13

I can't access tickerforum while i'm at work...please clue me in.
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby Novus » Wed 12 Mar 2008, 15:02:35

Nothing good in that link anyway.
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby roccman » Wed 12 Mar 2008, 15:03:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'I') can't access tickerforum while i'm at work...please clue me in.

Treasury Revs fell 12%. TNX going ape shit. HSBC’s CDS desk refusing to quote LEH, BSC and GS CDSs. Credit markets appear to be crashing... S and P at critical support... Dollar crashing HARD.

Stay tuned.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Bond Market Goes Kabooooooooooooom!

Unread postby highlander » Wed 12 Mar 2008, 17:54:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'I')f the insurers are getting bailed out then what’s the point of having insurers? Why not just have the FED bail people out when there’s a problem. Skip the middle-man, no need for all these alphabet rating systems. It’s Wall Street not Sesame Street!

It looks like that is exactly what happened yesterday. It still doesn't address the problem of uncollectable debt. Was yesterdays rally really just a bunch of big players covering their shorts?
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