Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby mel1962 » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 22:42:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', 'W')ell, we have a new high, its a preliminary estimate for Oct '07 of 85,605 versus July '06 of 65,467 so it looks like an increase of 138k. Will this be the new record or the beginning of a "true" production increase!


IEA claimed a new world record in November. Now EIA has announced a new world record in December albeit less than IEA's. All quarterly and monthly records for All Liquids & Conventional for both agencies are in graph form here: http://www.trendlines.ca/monthlyreport.htm

In short, the Plateau is over ... next stop 87 mb/d.


Nice link, thanks! It will be interesting to see what it will plateau, conventional oil however has not reached new highs.

No Peak on all liquids on in July '06, but perhaps not conventional oil and that's the story I am going with!
User avatar
mel1962
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 53
Joined: Sun 14 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Great Lakes, USA

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby mel1962 » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 11:33:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', 'W')ell, we have a new high, its a preliminary estimate for Oct '07 of 85,605 versus July '06 of 85,467 so it looks like an increase of 138k. Will this be the new record or the beginning of a "true" production increase!


The new EIA report came out on Feb. 11th and there were some rather important revisions to last months numbers as follows:

I stand corrected, the Oct '07 preliminary estimate has been downgraded from 85,605 to 85,451!

This makes July '06 still the peak at 85,467!

The preliminary estimate for Nov '07 is 85,360!

Finally, it looks like '05 will remain peak year 84,631 vs. '07 84,531 (11 month avg)!
User avatar
mel1962
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 53
Joined: Sun 14 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Great Lakes, USA

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 13:07:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', 'W')ell, we have a new high, its a preliminary estimate for Oct '07 of 85,605 versus July '06 of 85,467 so it looks like an increase of 138k. Will this be the new record or the beginning of a "true" production increase!


The new EIA report came out on Feb. 11th and there were some rather important revisions to last months numbers as follows:

I stand corrected, the Oct '07 preliminary estimate has been downgraded from 85,605 to 85,451!

This makes July '06 still the peak at 85,467!

The preliminary estimate for Nov '07 is 85,360!

Finally, it looks like '05 will remain peak year 84,631 vs. '07 84,531 (11 month avg)!


I am so glad my becoming tangled in this PO thing wasn't just a ginormous paranoid delusion. If that Oct '07 had held and had been officially sacntioned, I would probably have discounted the whole PO premise and moved on to other things ashamed that I had been so foolish.
User avatar
PeakingAroundtheCorner
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 522
Joined: Sun 08 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby mel1962 » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 20:28:02

PAC, have a little faith, the numbers are what they are!

But, I felt the numbers where bogus, because of the oil prices!

[smilie=pottytrain5.gif]

But, in reality 2005 average has not been beaten, peak oil is upon us, like it or not! [smilie=5opera.gif]
User avatar
mel1962
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 53
Joined: Sun 14 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Great Lakes, USA

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby Pops » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 20:42:19

Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

I guess I am thinking “who cares – does it matter?”

Either you changed or you sat and stroked your keys waiting for a sign.


Perhaps you will get up from the screen when things start to hurt.

Or not...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby SpringCreekFarm » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 20:46:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'D')id Peak Oil happen in July '06?

I guess I am thinking “who cares – does it matter?”

Either you changed or you sat and stroked your keys waiting for a sign.


Perhaps you will get up from the screen when things start to hurt.

Or not...


Jeez you make me laugh Pops. You tell 'em! :smile:

I couldn't agree with you more.
SpringCreekFarm
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 936
Joined: Fri 03 Mar 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Canada
Top

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby mel1962 » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 21:21:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops and Springy', 'D')id Peak Oil happen in July '06?

I guess I am thinking “who cares – does it matter?”

Either you changed or you sat and stroked your keys waiting for a sign.


Perhaps you will get up from the screen when things start to hurt.

Or not...


WOW 8O

You both have issues! All I can say is "Sirs, quit beating your wife!" :lol:

I am presenting facts and you have problems that go beyond peak oil, please keep to the subject matter and avoid getting personal, please! :roll:

You may think you know it all and you may, because I am not the smartest person in the world. I do know what the facts are and you can make fun of me, but I have been prepared for a long time for this moment. I would like to alert others to what is really happening, sorry if that insults your intellect, but I feel it is our duty!
User avatar
mel1962
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 53
Joined: Sun 14 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Great Lakes, USA
Top

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby Pops » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 22:22:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', 'Y')ou both have issues! All I can say is "Sirs, quit beating your wife!" :lol:

I am presenting facts and you have problems that go beyond peak oil, please keep to the subject matter and avoid getting personal, please! :roll:

You may think you know it all and you may, because I am not the smartest person in the world. I do know what the facts are and you can make fun of me, but I have been prepared for a long time for this moment. I would like to alert others to what is really happening, sorry if that insults your intellect, but I feel it is our duty!

My thought was simply that relating what one does to mitigate the effects of increasing energy costs in the future are more important than tapping out what happened 18 months ago or a tapping out a guess about what may happen 18 months in the future.

Perhaps relating those things you have done to prepare this long time could be of more use than a rehash of the many threads here?



As far as getting personal, you mentioned my treatment of my wife (cute smiley aside), my mental state and my intellect.

The first of which bothers me a great deal so lets not go there any more.

Your other two observations are still up for debate. :P
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Top

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 15:27:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'W')e are also about one year past peak of world demand exceeding world supply. That is - incremental demand is now being met by inventory drawdowns


Along with less demand from poor countries who cannot afford the higher crude oil and refined product prices. It will slowly work it's way up the consumption ladder.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby BigTex » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 16:20:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops and Springy', 'D')id Peak Oil happen in July '06?

I guess I am thinking “who cares – does it matter?”

Either you changed or you sat and stroked your keys waiting for a sign.


Perhaps you will get up from the screen when things start to hurt.

Or not...


WOW 8O

You both have issues! All I can say is "Sirs, quit beating your wife!" :lol:

I am presenting facts and you have problems that go beyond peak oil, please keep to the subject matter and avoid getting personal, please! :roll:

You may think you know it all and you may, because I am not the smartest person in the world. I do know what the facts are and you can make fun of me, but I have been prepared for a long time for this moment. I would like to alert others to what is really happening, sorry if that insults your intellect, but I feel it is our duty!


I don't think they're making fun of you. It's just that your level of excitement at looking at the charts can't be maintained.

It is strange to see the convergence of exploding demand for oil at more or less the exact moment that oil supply is looking like it wants to contract or plateau. It's really a perfect storm kind of situation. We are probably at or near the peak (give or take a few years).

If you read your posts, though, you may see that you sound like a guy standing in front of a large dam screaming "Look, there's another crack! Holy cow, this sucker's about to burst!"

Others standing in front of the dam may be just as concerned as you, they are just reacting to it in different ways.
:)
User avatar
BigTex
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3858
Joined: Thu 03 Aug 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Graceland
Top

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby mel1962 » Sun 24 Feb 2008, 20:43:32

BigTex

I hear you, while most people on this web site have already decided that peak oil is a fact or will be shortly, many like myself will not be convinced except by facts alone. :doubt:

So my reaction to the charts are my true feelings, it is amazing that this is unfolding in front of my eyes and my preparations will not be in folly! [smilie=bduh.gif]

Oh, and by the way there's a crack and there's a crack and oh my gosh I see some water flowing through the cracks, sorry couldn't resist! [smilie=5shocking.gif]
User avatar
mel1962
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 53
Joined: Sun 14 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Great Lakes, USA

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 25 Feb 2008, 06:55:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', '
')Oh, and by the way there's a crack and there's a crack and oh my gosh I see some water flowing through the cracks, sorry couldn't resist!

I don't know, what you would do, but once I see cracks in the dam, I would move upstream.

I would also consider someone standing at the bottom, yelling that there is a crack and doing nothing more than that to be actually on crack.
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7537
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby Dan1195 » Thu 28 Feb 2008, 23:00:01

I will be interested to see how the 2008-9 jump in new megaprojects effects crude output. Past two years we have seen slight declines, about 0.5-1% with an assumed 5 mpd/yr depletion rate and ~4 mpd new megaprojects online. Assuming we get that additional 7 mpd/yr for the next two and depletion rates stay the same, is it not unreasonable to see C+C production get up to say 77 mpd with a decline afterwords. Of course I am assume no major supply disruptions or economicall driven demand destruction, but if neither happens someone explain why this doesnt make sense.
User avatar
Dan1195
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 277
Joined: Sat 19 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby Gandalf_the_White » Fri 29 Feb 2008, 03:20:41

Yes, peak oil happened in 2005 or 2006. I thought DantesPeak also showed us a class of production that hit peak in 2004 sometime. We are all sitting around now praying for Yergin's peak plateau to undulate on an on, it's our last chance.

"You must help us Obewan Kenyergin. You're our only hope!"
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
User avatar
Gandalf_the_White
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 165
Joined: Wed 21 Nov 2007, 04:00:00

Re: Did Peak Oil happen in July '06?

Postby FreddyH » Fri 29 Feb 2008, 19:54:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dan1195', 'I') will be interested to see how the 2008-9 jump in new megaprojects effects crude output. Past two years we have seen slight declines, about 0.5-1% with an assumed 5 mpd/yr depletion rate and ~4 mpd new megaprojects online. Assuming we get that additional 7 mpd/yr for the next two and depletion rates stay the same, is it not unreasonable to see C+C production get up to say 77 mpd with a decline afterwords. Of course I am assume no major supply disruptions or economicall driven demand destruction, but if neither happens someone explain why this doesnt make sense.


The regular conventional oil peak (67-mbd) of 2005 is quite safe. Its flow was down to 63-mbd this quarter and most of the capacity growth in 2008/9/10 will be via non-conventional liquids. The Underlying Decline Rate is only 3.7% (3.2-mbd/yr) globally but has been estimated higher by some because of errors within the megaproject calculation methodology (instant on max flows). Because the mega figures are wrongly high, UDR had to be inexplicably high to explain the lack of higher matching production. This inherent error will continue thru to 2010 at which time it will be exposed. It will be seen that there are increased flows that exceed the attributed megaprojects. Underlying Decline is increasing by 0.34-mbd/yr.

My model attributes none of the increased flows to 2011 on reg conv oil. Any new RCO projects are outweighed by its terminal underlying decline rate:

Image
underlying decline rate progress link
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
User avatar
FreddyH
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon 14 Jan 2008, 04:00:00
Location: The Yukon
Top

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron