[ChefBoyardee]

HOUSTON – The Earth is not about to run out of oil.

According to executives of major oil companies, the planet has plenty of oil to feed growing demand for energy. It's just getting more difficult and more expensive to produce the oil that's left.

So difficult, in fact, that the head of Hess Corp. predicts the globe could face shortages, price spikes and maybe even political instability in the next decade or so.

"An oil crisis is coming, and sooner than most people think," Hess chief executive John Hess said during a panel discussion at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates annual conference.

"We need to act now. Unfortunately, we are behaving in ways that suggest we do not know there is a serious problem," he said.

"The supply challenge is really not one of scarcity as some believe," said Exxon Mobil senior vice president Mark Albers. He said the challenges are finding the technology to draw the oil out of the ground and setting up free trade rules to allow oil to flow to market.
Shorten your url's please - jato

These words are true but can be misleading as well. It lulls the uninformed into thinking that all that is required is more effort to extract oil. Why don't these Captains of Industry tell it like it is: End of Cheap Oil = Peak Oil?

Chef Boyardee

[emersonbiggins]

The original premise of the article is a FLAT OUT misrepresentation of peak oil theory, e.g. "OH NOES! We're about to run out!"

No need to read any further.

[Homesteader]

So he is saying the cheap oil is about done, the remaining oil is more expensive to extract and more difficult to find, and the oil majors need protection errrr. . "free-trade legislation" to keep their profits up errr. . . I'm mean keep the oil flowing.

Sounds like there is a peak of something in there somewhere.

[mefistofeles]

This quote reminds me of Monty Python's "Life of Brian" where the main character is being crucified and starts singing

"Always look on the bright side of life."

[ohanian]

I had it with reality, I think I'll just relax by reading a fictional book

Earth by David Brin (published 1990)


Brin's 'Earth' takes place in the year 2038, and the portrait painted of our society 40-some years from now is so totally plausible that it's a little disturbing. By 2038, Earth's population has grown to over 10 billion, natural resources are even more depleted than they are today, and many people think that the population is on the verge of a massive crash. Brin's depiction of the way that various sectors of society deal with this concept is complex and fascinating.

Set in the not-too-distant future of 2038. This is a type of future apocalpytic story. The Earth has undergone some radical changes caused by the global warming. The ozone layer has started breaking down to the point where people only go outside if they are wearing hats and skin cream or special sunglasses to protect their skin and eyes from UV damage. Animals and fish are also affected by this UV damage with many becoming blind or worse, extinct. Entire rainforests and forests have been wiped out. Desparate to save what animal and plant life are hanging on, people have built hundreds of Life Arks, contained ecosystems stacked on top of the other housing the animal and plant life that has survived.

Resources that were once abundant are now gone (such as petroleum) or severely rationed. Deserts have begun enroaching into Europe. Recycling is the norm and is mandatory. Socially, society is vastly different as well. Privacy and secrecy is obsolete, with tru-vu eyeware able to spy and snoop on anyone. The Net has made it possible to have information at your fingertips. It's a new world, with a new cause (or religion if you want to call it that) called the Gaians that many have adopted to help combat the dying Earth.




hmmmm.... Maybe reality is not that bad after all

[Kingcoal]

Peak oil is the end of cheap oil, not oil in general. That's what they are saying. I wonder if anyone is listening. This is very impressive to hear an oil company acknowledge not only peak oil, but the probability that it won't be pleasant.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ChefBoyardee', '"')We need to act now. Unfortunately, we are behaving in ways that suggest we do not know there is a serious problem," he said.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ChefBoyardee', '"')We need to act now. Unfortunately, we are behaving in ways that suggest we do not know there is a serious problem," he said.

[FreakOil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ChefBoyardee', '"')We need to act now. Unfortunately, we are behaving in ways that suggest we do not know there is a serious problem," he said.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'C')onsidering most of the people in the US (and I would guess the world) think either "there's plenty of oil, it's not running out" or "somebody will think of something", I think we already broke the future.

[ChefBoyardee]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreakOil', 'T')he statement "there's plenty of oil, it's not running out" is true. There's tons of oil left. We're probably only halfway through the total amount of extractable reserves on the planet. We don't know for sure..."Oil is running out" grabs headlines, but it just isn't true. We can't say that.

[FreakOil]

There is plenty of oil left. The problem is that the amount of oil available to the global economy is going to fall. According to some analysts, peak hits when we've extracted half of the recoverable reserves. That means we still have half left, but the amount that we can extract on a daily basis will keep falling. That will have terrible consequences.

I'm not downplaying this. But oil simply is not running out. It's becoming harder to find, harder to extract and harder to refine. The entire process is more expensive by an order of magnitude than it was a few decades ago, and there's less net available energy from supplies. But oil is not running out. Not Simmons, nor Deffeyes, nor Cambell nor any other Peak Oil analyst is saying that.

The problem here is spin. If you want to convince your audience that everything is fine - without lying - then open up your speech or article by saying that there's plenty of oil left. But I don't think that's responsible because everything is not fine.

To convince your audience of the severity of the situation, you should say that oil available to global markets has peaked or will peak soon and then begin its irreversible decline. Then you may enter into a discussion of the difficulties of extraction or the consequences for the perpetual growth economy or whatever.

However, if someone does choose to say that there's plenty of oil left, they are not lying. You may accuse them of spin, or even sophistry, but not lying. We have to be honest and remember the facts of Peak Oil. It would be so easy to say that oil is running out, but it wouldn't be true.

[FreakOil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ChefBoyardee', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreakOil', 'T')he statement "there's plenty of oil, it's not running out" is true. There's tons of oil left. We're probably only halfway through the total amount of extractable reserves on the planet. We don't know for sure..."Oil is running out" grabs headlines, but it just isn't true. We can't say that.

[shortonoil]

“Peak Oil occurs when production increases can no longer compensate for oil’s declining energy contribution.”

Try explaining that to the typical mathematically, scientifically, intellectually challenged person on the street. You will find that it is like trying to explain quantum mechanics to a horse fly.

Just tell them that a permanent energy crisis is happening and the economy is going to crash because of it. They can understand that, even through they will think you are a horrible, negative and pessimistic person for even suggesting it.

Good luck to all the messengers of bad news. Try to stay clear of the witch trials!

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreakOil', 'T')hat's not an accurate analogy. The oxygen in the water is useless to the drowning man, while the oil remaining is not useless, there's just less available on a daily basis. A more appropriate analogy would be telling a person standing at sea level that there's plenty of oxygen in Tibet. While he's climbing, the oxygen available to his lungs with every breath will decline.

[ChefBoyardee]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreakOil', 'T')hat's not an accurate analogy. The oxygen in the water is useless to the drowning man, while the oil remaining is not useless, there's just less available on a daily basis. A more appropriate analogy would be telling a person standing at sea level that there's plenty of oxygen in Tibet. While he's climbing, the oxygen available to his lungs with every breath will decline.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ChefBoyardee', '.')..Getting hung up on analogies is the same thing as debating whether the instrument you're looking at is an artifical horizon or an attitude indicator while the aircraft is about to crash...

[efarmer]

Ah yes, the end is coming but it ain't that bad. I sometimes
pine that we have lost some of the grandeur of the Egyptians.
The head of Exxon would be a god-man, an Energy Pharoah
and we would build a huge pyramid of tires and blacktop
to receive his mummified corpse when he went to the other
side. He would be plastinated and have a gas pump nozzle
on a gold chain around his neck for an Ankh and a pack of
Lucky's tucked up in the armband of his T shirt beneath his
pin striped suit. A handmade sarcophagus would be carved
from oriented strand board and covered with hand stitched
Naugahyde. He would be long gone, in the afterlife and money
would still be shooting out his ass.

Yeah, the end of petroleum is coming but it won't be that bad.

On a bright note, I am reading a book about people who have
had near death experiences and then have been revived again.
Almost to a person, they say that death tastes just like chicken.

[ChefBoyardee]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'A')h yes, the end is coming but it ain't that bad. I sometimes pine that we... Yeah, the end of petroleum is coming but it won't be that bad.