[wtshtf_in_ks]

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3481


has anyone read stuart staniford's article on why he thinks industrial agriculture is going to stick around?

he says that with high oil prices we might expect to see more labor substitution, conventional agriculture profits fall, and so on. but we don't see that.

i think relocalization will be a powerful economic force but it doesn't happen in a 2 or 3 year period. industrial food is all that is for sale in most areas of the country. they are in a position to just pass on their added fuel costs in the form of higher food prices. so customers will just have to tough it for a long while. it may take a couple decades of record breaking oil prices for small local farmers to learn the trade, set up, and begin to offer serious competition to products coming in from california.

[Nano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wtshtf_in_ks', 'I')t may take a couple decades of record breaking oil prices for small local farmers to set up and begin to offer serious competition to products coming in from california.

[FireJack]

I suspect the food will rapidly become less nutrition and more bulk as time goes on. Who cares whether industrial agriculture goes on or not, much better to grow what you eat with your own 2 hands. Thats what I plan on doing anyway.

[Windmills]

Industrial agriculture could be one of the last things to go. There are a great many expenses in the family budget that can be eliminated, but you'll always need food. I think that not only could industrial agriculture stand higher prices, but the family budget could also be forced to use a much higher percentage of its income for food before being forced into subsistence.

However, I think a wise person will hedge their bets and do what they can do grow as much of their own food as possible. There plenty of lawns out there that could be put to much better use.

[kjmclark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', 'P')lease ignore the raving lunatics on this site who try to persuade you otherwise.

[Heineken]

During WWII many people started "victory gardens" as a way of trying to feed themselves. I don't know how successful they were, and, in any case, the war didn't last long enough to provide a really good test.

Yes, industrial agriculture will attempt to perpetuate itself for as long as possible. But it will be swimming upstream. You have a vast industry that runs on fossil fuels colliding with the energy realities we know only too well, as well as with potential environmental collapses (water, soil, climate).

Once food prices cross a certain threshold, and people can't even afford to gas up to drive to the supermarket, and retailers and truckers can't pass on the costs anymore, the whole thing falls down.

And prices aren't the only issue. Food scarcity is a real possibility.

Ultimately agriculture will have to become localized. But the revised system will not be able to support nearly as many people (meaning, partial dieoff occurs). Also, the transition itself will have unimaginable consequences for how our civilization operates, if it can survive in recognizable form at all.

[TheDude]

Don't leave out the two reposts to his article, Is Relocalization Doomed?: A Response to Staniford’s "Fallacy of Reversibility", and More Thoughts on Relocalization.

I think Stuart's pushing peoples' buttons a bit with his articles lately, with topics like building a globe-spanning electrical grid, or how we'll have 4 billion cars on the road - both by 2050. As he points out people love light switches and horses under the hood, but note the cavalcade of people pointing out that with billions of people indulging in their impulses like the OCED does now we'll likely strip the planet clean and then some. Coming to that conclusion makes you a bit of a Doomer, or Raving Lunatic, or whatever, it seems. Stuart's right to want to face facts and see ahead with the data to hand, regardless of what he or anyone else might hope for, which is the correct thing to do.

At any rate I think relocalization is a good idea - plan for the worst. Non semper erit aestas. The Cubans did to some extent and it helped.

[DoubleD]

I live on about 1 acre of mostly woodlot land. Not ideal for gardening due to the limited amount of land that is suitable for vegetable growing due to shade problems. Having said that - I am a long time food production gardener who has been honing my skills, doing it low tech, and steadily minimizing the amount of external inputs to my "production" garden. We currently grow 100% of our vegetable needs and almost all of our fruits (although I still buy a box of apples, pears, and peaches for canning). I use raised boxed beds, use season extending techniques, and am all organic. I feed a family of 3 (big eaters too) with about 600 square feet of actual growing area and about another 200 square feet of food production that is worked into my landscape (rhubarb, blueberries, huckleberries, salal berries, raspberries, blackberries, and some miniature fruit trees in large pots).

I still buy whole grain (grind our own), sugar, honey, rice, salt, baking supplies, and meat/eggs/dairy but even these items I keep a good supply in reserve (and I DO mean a good supply) - so that we can ride out problems as they may arise.

It's quite doable to grow all of your own vegetables and fruits on a limited amount of land. Grains, dried legumes, and meat etc is another matter that generally requires more space than most people have available. Small animal production is possible though even on a typical suburban lot... chickens and rabbits.

What it takes though - is alot of initial work, a real desire to do this NOW while there is no "emergency", and years of practice. Learning to grow your own food in any real meaningful way is not something that happens overnight and sure as hell does not happen when you are facing imminent stress.

It is probably one of the most rewarding parts of my life though - I feed my family well, we are healthy and fit and I think it has a lot to do with our lifestyle choices and eating habits (whole fresh foods made from scratch) and the fact that we work out of doors regularly. I would encourage everyone to begin now if you have not already done so.

[Heineken]

Good job, Double D.

Sounds to me that you are located in an area not plagued with the Japanese beetle. Most of thse crops you listed would have a tough time hacking it in the JB zone. Can you spell d-e-f-o-l-i-a-t-i-o-n?

A couple of posters, including you, have wisely noted that time and preparation are crucial factors. To which I'd add intelligence and skill (a green thumb).

It would take years to adapt the typical sterile suburban lot to growing food on a large scale. And years to learn the skills and build the gardening infrastructure.

Most suburbanites and urbanites (as well as many country people, I suspect), thrust into food crisis, are not going to be able to make the transition in time.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'S')ounds to me that you are located in an area not plagued with the Japanese beetle. Most of thse crops you listed would have a tough time hacking it in the JB zone. Can you spell d-e-f-o-l-i-a-t-i-o-n?
.

[jlw61]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'S')ounds to me that you are located in an area not plagued with the Japanese beetle. Most of thse crops you listed would have a tough time hacking it in the JB zone. Can you spell d-e-f-o-l-i-a-t-i-o-n?
.

[Heineken]

Please search for and read the Japanese beetle thread (there are a couple, actually). All the info. you need is there.

I haven't had problems with JBs on my tomatoes. Or cucumbers.

You'll see a couple of them on these plants, but they don't do any significant damage.

What they really wreck are fruits like grapes, apples, plums, etc.

Figs are immune.

[Nano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kjmclark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', 'P')lease ignore the raving lunatics on this site who try to persuade you otherwise.

[MrBill]

I don't mind the raving lunatics, I kinda enjoy their perspective. However, I dislike going over the same ground again and again and again. Most of these topics have been thoroughly discussed recently already.

Also, it is not a specific criticism of this thread - sorry wtshtf_in_ks - but I generally dislike seeing stuff posted on peak oil dot com directly from the oil drum or financial sense dot com or other infotainment blogs. If I wanted to read them I would go to those websites and read them there. Just my own personal opinion! ; - )

[Nano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') don't mind the raving lunatics, I kinda enjoy their perspective. However, I dislike going over the same ground again and again and again. Most of these topics have been thoroughly discussed recently already.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') don't mind the raving lunatics, I kinda enjoy their perspective. However, I dislike going over the same ground again and again and again. Most of these topics have been thoroughly discussed recently already.

[Heineken]

In this, I agree with dsula.

More freedom, not less.

Too much cutting and splicing by mods is disorienting and a pain in the axx, not just for them but for many posters. It does at least as much harm as good.

People have the option to tune out any time they want. Just point and click.

[wtshtf_in_ks]

somewhere i heard there is someone that has pointed out that the average size suburban lawn is about the space a subsistence farmer in vietnam makes do with. one difference though is that the average american suburbanite does not have two growing seasons.


also, i never said food would be cheap someday. but the food from permaculture may be cheaper than conventional, especially with perennial recessions, there will be lots of unemployed people with plenty of labor to spare, but not much money.

staring out their window they may come to see their lawn as a potential social security system if they replace it.

[SpringCreekFarm]

Lawns might have the surface area but they don't necessarily have the fertility. I used to work in the construction industry and let me tell you that there is only enough topsoil on a typical lawn to support grass. Other than that it is a mix of subsoil and garbage, which is not conducive to good gardening.