[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I')t does seem like peak keeps getting moved into the future?

[dinopello]

Maybe instead of demand, one refers to the amount needed to continue the world's current economic and lifestyle paradigm. Recognizing that lifestyle varies quite a bit around the world.

[yesplease]

Realistic assumptions about price w/ valid sources trump simplistic ones w/o sources. If you want to crawl across the desert w/o water feel free, it seems consistent with your behavior. It ain't for me, but feel free to do whatever you want...

[Tyler_JC]

It's not semantics.

If you use 1970 growth rates (8% annual growth), we should be consuming 750 million barrels of oil per day instead of every 8 or 9 days.

Demand projections for the long term do not accurately reflect the effect of price changes.

[eastbay]

I wonder if they factored inflation into the $190/bbl figure. If not, of if not sufficiently, the price will be quite a bit more, I would think.

Here's how I envision theoretical demand exceeding actual supply from a simple non-economist and lay perspective:

10 cars; gas for 8.

Is that helpful?

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')t's not semantics.

If you use 1970 growth rates (8% annual growth), we should be consuming 750 million barrels of oil per day instead of every 8 or 9 days.

Demand projections for the long term do not accurately reflect the effect of price changes.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', 'G')iven Ace's price prediction history, I don't see why.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'M')aybe instead of demand, one refers to the amount needed to continue the world's current economic and lifestyle paradigm. Recognizing that lifestyle varies quite a bit around the world.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')o maintain my lifestyle (and maybe improve it a little) I need 10 billion barrels of oil ASAP. Please send them to Angstrom Laboratory at Uppsala University, Sweden.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'I') wonder if they factored inflation into the $190/bbl figure. If not, of if not sufficiently, the price will be quite a bit more, I would think.

Here's how I envision theoretical demand exceeding actual supply from a simple non-economist and lay perspective:

10 cars; gas for 8.

Is that helpful?

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')o maintain my lifestyle (and maybe improve it a little) I need 10 billion barrels of oil ASAP. Please send them to Angstrom Laboratory at Uppsala University, Sweden.

[BigTex]

I'm sure glad that SA has plenty of spare capacity and Iraq will be seriously increasing its production in coming years.

If it weren't for those things I might be concerned.

What I wonder about is why inventories haven't fallen more if we really are that close to the peak?

Once the peak is reached (whenever that is), what impact will that have on inventories in the short to medium term? I am thinking that inventories may remain strong, price will just continue rising.

I am certain that for many years there will be PLENTY of oil for sale, it just may cost a lot.

There won't be a shortage of oil, there will be a shortage of money to buy the oil with.

[eastbay]

Supply and demand are pretty dynamic things, and price plays a crucial role.

Thanks... who would have thought price played a role in how much of 'something' people bought.

Anyhow, that's why we use the vague term, 'theoretical demand'. It's to offer non-economists such as most of us here an understandable sense of how much would be used of something was sufficiently available. In the case of oil, as many believe, availability will soon be greatly constricted due to depletion.

Simply put, when theoretical demand passes supply, there will certainly be lots of cars parked in driveways and along roads. That's when we'll know the lines have diverged. Supply will soon be less than theoretical demand no matter what the price is at that point.

[LastViking]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')here is no such thing as demand, only demand at a certain price. This is fundamental.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')here is no such thing as demand, only demand at a certain price. This is fundamental.

[LastViking]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', ' ')

Simply put, when theoretical demand passes supply, there will certainly be lots of cars parked in driveways and along roads. That's when we'll know the lines have diverged. Supply will soon be less than theoretical demand no matter what the price is at that point.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')here is no such thing as demand, only demand at a certain price. This is fundamental.

[shortonoil]

Some may have not noticed, but the world’s monetary/financial system is now on life support. It has lost $7.7 trillion in the last few months. At its present rate of deterioration, price will very soon become irrelevant.

How much oil are you going to be able to afford when it has to be exchanged for gold, wheat or toilet paper!

[LastViking]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'S')ome may have not noticed, but the world’s monetary/financial system is now on life support. It has lost $7.7 trillion in the last few months. At its present rate of deterioration, price will very soon become irrelevant.

How much oil are you going to be able to afford when it has to be exchanged for gold, wheat or toilet paper!