[TheDude]

What will the situation be in five years? Any sector of society is fair game, for any continent or country.

For the US, JD Power sees annual sales of hybrid vehicles growing dramatically but remaining a small segment of overall market share: Press Release, Jan 2006.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif.: 4 January 2006 — U.S. hybrid-electric vehicle sales volumes are anticipated to grow by 268 percent between 2005 and 2012, according to the most recent update of the J.D. Power and Associates Automotive Forecasting Services Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Outlook.SM

Hybrid vehicle sales are expected to grow from approximately 212,000 vehicles in 2005 to 780,000 by 2012. Despite the large increase in sales volume, vehicle models utilizing a hybrid-electric powertrain still will remain a small portion of the market, growing from 1.3 percent of U.S. light-vehicle sales in 2005 to 4.2 percent market share by 2012.

[I_Like_Plants]

In 1930, it still didn't look all that bad. The Depression took until 1934 to hit bottom. Then stayed there into the early 40s.

What we're heading into is much bigger. Things could look very very different than they do now.

[Schneider]

Mexico will stop to export oil well before 2014! They are consuming a lot of their own oil and the population is increasing eac h day..

Schneider

[FreddyH]

zero effect on global economies. a non event.

But being most probably the second year into the Decline (down to 90-mbd), the usa gov't will re-implement 55mph speed limit in a drastic maneuver to chop domestic demand.

NOCs (except aramco) will be begging IOCs to assist them with managing their petroleum sectors. Lack of manpower & expertise will see them in shambles. IOC's will luv their expanding "consulting" role and layoff tens of thousands....

Unless it stabilizes shortly, underlying decline will rise from today's 3.4% to 5.9% by 2013. The industry will have failed to keep up a 5-mbd/yr pace of new capacity to stem the Decline. 1.5% overall Decline becomes status quo...

[Zardoz]

Global production down to around 80 MBPD. Gasoline at seven to nine bucks a gallon (2008 dollars) in the U.S. with chronic shortages.

Unemployment at eight or even ten percent. Deep recession with many calling it a depression. Dow Jones down to below 6000.

Sporadic civil unrest with the National Guard completely out of Iraq because they're needed here.

Great tension between the U.S., China and Russia. Growing unrest in Saudi Arabia with the House of Saud holding on by its fingernails. Near-chaos in Pakistan with the government resorting to brutal, bloody repressive measures.

Air travel industry severely affected with several carriers folding. Home building industry a shell of its former self.

Possibly a new resource war somewhere. Nigeria, for instance.

[jasonraymondson]

What does it matter, we won't even be here. World Ends December 21 2012

[davep]

By 2013 my (Feb 2008 planted) orchard should be producing quite a lot of fruit (and some nuts). My chestnut groves may even be producing something.

Hopefully my old house will have a new roof and better windows and doors. I may even have a grid-independent home by then.

I hope to be able to produce enough corn for my own chickens by then as well, using a variation on the Jeavons bio-intensive techniques.

I may even have a little still running to fuel my on-farm tools and vehicles. My (pending) oil futures options may mean that I'll be a man of leisure too

[Zardoz]

This thread provides some data on how things will be in five years or so.

Those of us in the slow decline camp harbor no illusions about where we're going. We only disagree with the cliff-divers about how and when we'll get there.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'z')ero effect on global economies. a non event.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'z')ero effect on global economies. a non event.

[pup55]

The government will finally admit that both Social Security and Medicare are insolvent, because of the increase in the number of retirees, finally causing a national revolt.

The localization people will get their wish: a lot more food will be grown locally. Problem: Everyone's diet will be boring, especially during winter, and people will hate it.

Mexico will already be recovering from their bloody civil war, which will result in the splitting of it into several smaller narco-states, controlled by a warlord.

The US cops will finally give up trying to bust non-violent drug offenders. Reason: Payoffs from the Mexican drug lords.

A Big Mac will sell for $5 US when they are available. A bag of weed will also sell for $5, but will be more available.

the EU will cease to be united. Several smaller blocs will develop within the current structure from this as well, along natural alliances.

There will be mass starvation events throughout Africa, even worse than now.

China will again fall into civil war. The leader will be someone from Chairman Mao's farming village, sick of the lack of opportunity and bad distribution of income, and starving of the peasant class. After much bloodshed, they will return to a much more socialistic system.

King Charles will renounce the throne, only two years after his coronation, after his divorce from Camilla. King William will greatly downsize the monarchy as a tribute to his mother, who never did really care for all of those snobs anyway.

President Huckabee will instruct the Department of Agriculture to publish various recipes for squirrel and rabbit, to supplement the diet of the starving suburbanites.


The US Department of Housing and Urban Development, as well as various local and state governments will start bulldozing vacant houses, so as to preserve the "value" of the ones that are occupied. This will touch off riots among the homeless suburbanites, who no longer have shelter available. Urban camping will be widespread in large numbers in the inner cities across the US.

President Raul Castro will open up Cuba for economic development. Too late, no one will have the money to build hotels and tourist destinations.

Lockheed, boeing, GD, and all of the big defense contractors will continue to receive giant contracts for complex defense systems causing pockets of prosperity to develop in various parts of the country. Remnants of the Mexican army, armed with sticks and stones, will recapture parts of the Gadsden Purchase. The US military will be unable to dislodge them, despite being in posession of the most sophisticated military equipment on the planet.

The water level in Lake Mead will drop below the practical level for pumping water or generating electricity, causing most of Las Vegas to be abandoned, like many old west boomtowns.

President Huckabee will allow the secession of Montana and Idaho, citing God's will. The new nation will be called "The Aryan Republic of Montaho". The entire West Coast will be tempted to secede as well, however, since the economies are so dependent on the military industrial complex mammary gland from DC, they will not secede.

Saudi will also break into more than one piece. King Bandar will lead the more moderate faction. The other faction will have all of the oil.

Osama Bin Laden, in a taped message from his Florida HQ, will celebrate the 11th anniversary of the 9-11 bombings with a giant sale in his Ocala appliance store.

[I_Like_Plants]

"Illegals" and that will be interpreted very widely, will be run out at bayonet point if they're lucky. The unlucky ones will be shot.

We really are headed for this, I've lived in "diverse" parts of the US and we're going to be the bigger better Yugoslavia.

[Revi]

2013 is five hard years in the future. I will be half way to my 10 year goal of retiring at 59 and a half.

I don't know what will be happening in five years. It doesn't look all that pleasant.

I'll bet that a lot of middle class people are taking the bus by then.

[TheDude]

Didn't figure you for the whimsical sort, pup. Heard about Huckabee's fondness for road kill the other day. In a pinch squirrel hide makes OK shoe leather too, according to the Foxfire books.

Mostly trying to extrapolate trends, ala Freddy. How many barrels/watts/windmills/panels in five years, rather than imponderables like Balkanization. Although that seems more likely than not in many parts of the country if things really go down the drain.

[ki11ercane]

<Please read this post with an open mind. I am not advocating violence, and I am not a violent person. I am only making a prediction as this thread intends. Thank you>

Expect more violence in society, period, no matter whether it's Chad or Regina, SK. As governments on all levels de-couple in their ability to keep society in check, (police, crime control, militia, etc.) people will simply slip back into violence like what was seen 125 years prior.

Petty crimes will be dealt with severely and violently. Someone steals a loaf of bread, we will cut off their hand or kill them outright. It's a loaf of bread and it's probably keeping a family alive for a week. Someone stole 2 water jugs off my stoop. Who cares, it's only $20.00 to recover it and the drive to the fresh water is 2 miles down the street. Five years from now with no fresh water pumping into my house, that's fresh water for my family for a week. I will kill that person who stole the water dead and use their body parts to fertilize the Victory Garden.

People (all people, not just Doomers, Tin Foil Hatters, and Survival Nuts) will live in constant fear of attack by their neighbor, and in turn will turn that fear into "preemptive violence" thinking their neighbor will be out to get them. People will attack first even if there is no threat of attack. They will simply do it out of instinct and "survival." Again, look into our history. What side of the fence will you be on?

With a breakdown in society, deterrence will shrink (M.A.D. on all levels) Less law being enforced on all social levels small to global and less enforcers will simply invoke more violence. While we are for the most part moral, ethical, etc., we fear incarceration, punishment, and capital death. When that possibility is eased off, people naturally slip into violence and civil unrest. One thousand examples I could give and I am not even touching the tip of the iceberg.

Cycles of violence will be more common and bloody. Strike your neighbor and his neighbor strikes you, and so on.

Violence will be more profitable. I am 34 and a child of the 80's and 90's which included Dungeons and Dragons, Twilight 2000, and Fallout. Step into the 21st century and you have WoW and a tonne more games that instill the idea to "raid and pillage" in order to gain wealth. Privateering, piracy, and mauarding will become more common with less law to stop it. Again, what side of the fence will you be on?

Expect the "value of life" to drop overall. More poorer, hungry, dirty, desperate people with shorter lifespans. Our perception of "life value" no matter how pious, religious, moral, or ethical we are, our desire not to die and to keep our family safe will rise. We will simply exploit more and kill more in order to live longer simply because life itself will be of less value with an unstable or poor society. Less economic exchange with other nations or even within our own nation or community and we simply have no concern to keep the "Chinese" or "Grocer" alive unless we see a need for them because right now, we need the Chinese to make our cheap crap and the grocer to get our food. Survival of the fittest will be the new Golden Rule. It's in our DNA. Take a look back 2000 years. If our society even takes 1/2 a step back to this way of living, then this will happen. Someone said here that "there will never be a nuke exchange." That will be true until the value of the "nukee" drops to a level that the "nuker" no longer cares. BOOM!

I know some of you have stocked "500-1000" bullets for your guns as I have read in some of the threads. Sorry but that may keep you safe for maybe 6-12 months. Shoot your weapon once or twice a day, then once more every other day, and you're out of ammo? Try putting that number at around 50,000 rounds. Unless you're a master caster and novice chemist with a stockpile of natural resources to re-stock your ammo supply, can we say rocks and sticks please! You're better off with a bow and bolts in your armory to accompany your gun. (really no joke) Will you be an Army of One? If you are no amount of ammo will save you. Again I know some other threads have discussed at great length the "living out in the sticks with my nice warm fuzzy fire, goat, chickens, and garden all safe and sound with my solar and wind power." No more proof than history itself has shown that the solitary life is a short, dirty one. Is the city the answer? Probably not either. More likely something in between like a small "secure" town, hamlet, village, etc. of a group not small enough and not big enough who "all together get it" (GFL on that one) and know what is needed to survive any level of violence brought to them.

Be prepared to kill anything that breathes, including those most close to you. Desperate times make people desperate, ANY people. Some of us have said "hell ya bring it on" and others who have made no mention of this fact probably cannot kill a bug. Sorry but if you're a tree hugger you will not survive if society falls into violence if this way of thinking is not part of your "survival toolbox", and isolation may not save you either. Hesitation will make you dead or maimed. I served in the army briefly. Trained to kill in war. Could I kill "socially" to survive? Not sure haven't seen the need yet. Being Canadian with less guns in our society and a majority of them "registered" with the governing body, guess which houses the government will go to first in order to cull "possible" anticipatory civil unrest (see above), the gun owners! One of the few of a short list of reasons I hate Canada.

Our level of empathy will shrink for the world. This will apply to humans, animals, and the resources in our environment. Our level of care outside our family unit will shrink in comparison to our needs to survive. We will care less the more we need to care about living.

The "good news" for our current point in history is while it seems impossible to perceive, we are living in one of the most peaceful social times in history, and our ability to attain and use cheap oil has contributed to that socially. Social breakdown in "society" will simply reverse this trend, even a brief time frame (brief I mean a few to ten years) forever. Since energy levels don't anticipate to return to their current levels ever again, neither will our social stability. It will be the Wild West, East, South and North.

Overall, preparing is GREAT and we should all continue to do it. But in the end, unless preparation is not met with a positive series of events encompassing your life (ie. luck) then the outcome looks not so positive.


http://static.videoegg.com/ted/flash/loader.swf

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')idn't figure you for the whimsical sort, pup.

[Chesire]

2008
Household food bills jump by 85 % . The number of americans going hungry or nutrionally deprived daily jumps to 90 million.

2009
the great property value reassessment prices down across the country 40 %. Layoffs of 20 million state and local workers

2010
Pemex burns, fed up with starving and squalor and not enough siesta . The mexicans finally get some cojones and burn the countries oil and industrial structure. Desperate to give people something to do besides contemplate killing off the local Fedstapo. Clean up America campaign starts all unemployed Americans are deputized to arrest illegal immigrants. Illegal and not so illegal immigrants run not walk to the nearest FEMA outpost . 8 out of 10 do not make it .

2011 despite extensions unemployment checks finally stop . THE LIST is announced . Despite some protesting from ex pats in Europe and Asia it is rolled out. It contains the names of 2 million anti establishment types and their families with maps, pictures and info. With a reward system for apprehension of said individuals . Available at any Post Office or Walmart for free. Hey its a job
Note if live apprehension is unsafe , heads , hands and tissue/bone fragment samples are accepted. Multiple rewards are issued for the same individuals. Canada announces safe haven for anyone on the list . After rescuing nearly 400,000 Listees , they are promptly turned in by Canadian Politicians for reelection campaign funds

2012 American Foriegn Legion starts . Having to many battles and not enough troops . The Fedstapo offers amnesty and a clean slate to anyone who joins the AFL. In order to streamline processing all recruiters are given stacks of pre stamped presidential pardons .
They are initally sorted into one of three units labeled Charlie , Indian , Oboe . Or criminal , illegal and other , so the AFL-CIO is up and running and deployed immediately to various hotspots . After a streamlined 4 week basic training course , AIT schools are skipped in favor of a the new RBT/OJT courses. Realtime Battle Training , On The Job .

Engaged in Operation Africa Liberation which is comedy gold since many surviving Africans except for the Kalahari bushmen. Are currently camped out in the former Yugoslavia , awaiting processing to become EU citizens. After being dumped there by planes , trains and automobiles thoughtfully provide by ME countries. An asymmetrical war still rages in africa with indigenous and not so indigenous Chinese and North korean troops . Since no one wants to piss in the punchbowl of Africa TPTB have an informal ground/air war only understanding .
Late summer 2012 , Operation War Band begins in cooperation with the ADA , not wanting to discriminate the AFL-CIO begins processing handicapped individuals into the ranks. No age or fitness requirements for this unit. OWB quickly becomes known as , Out with a bang

Since we are winning and we can rewrite the history books and imprison or execute witnesses later on. TPTB are not concerned with allegations or even live film of rape , pillage and plunder. It will be rewritten as requistioning of needed resources to maintain the integrity of the operation . Improvise , adapt and overcome are the PC words for the recreational activities of all armies since the dawn of time.

December 2012 , Opec announces it will keep all of its oil resources for its own use. A treaty is quickly signed and the Combined NK , PRC , NAU armies march up out of africa and proceed to decimate the ME forces. Photos of soldiers pissing on sacred relics in Mecca and Medina inflame the Moslem world. Just to be on the safe side USSR and India are invited to the party for a 4 way split of the oil production. NK protests and the PRC having long since grown tired of Kim's bullshit nukes the capital. A much more reasonable goverment is installed and the war continues.

January 2013 The world is still here inspite of downsizing by 3 billion people . Revised dates are issued by all armageddonites to 2029 when the next comet is allegedly coming. Sky watching continues in earnest . Sales of personal sound amplifiers soars so the faithful won't miss the trumpets of doom. The show continues and 2013 wil mark the 5th year of record crop failures in a row.
Al Gore promotes his new book and tour labeled , Global Cooling an Inconvenient Truth Part II. Inspite of the chic roman numerals in the title , other than a few Rotary Clubs and Old age homes he has no audience . Inspite of a personal note describing himself as an avid Taco Licker he's turned down for a guest spot on Late Night with Roseanne .

[Tyler_JC]

Chesire, write a book and I'll buy a copy.

[PrairieMule]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'C')hesire, write a book and I'll buy a copy.

[Chesire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'C')hesire, write a book and I'll buy a copy.