[shortonoil]

yull said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow long can this doomed ship stay up? Oil production doesn't look to be heading up next year, so the strain and the amount of water gushing in is going to increase. Prices will go up further and shortages will probably increase globally, and it just gets worse from then on.

[pup55]

We at PO.com periodically see fit to dedicate a special thread to an individual oil industy "expert" whose works are of such a nature as to be worthy of special scrutiny. In this instance, the individual is Daniel Yergin, head of CERA, perma-cornucopian and frequent talking head on the cable news shows, whenever they need someone who will say "remain calm, all is well".

Savinar's site today has the following delightful link, which I proudly use to kick off the thread: The Sad Record of Daniel Yergin I am particularly impressed with the following graph, authored by Mr. G. R. Morton, which I would like to highlight.

Although as news sleuths, we cannot hold the jock strap of Mr. Morton, I hope that the frequent viewers of PO.com will feel free to post other quotes from Mr. Yergin and CERA as they appear in the media by adding to this thread and commenting appropriately.

Note: I understand that PO.com has been asked not to directly quote material from CERA's website, which is not surprising in light of its record of chronic incorrectness, but material from other media, news services and other sources are by all means fair game, as long as quoted appropriately as listed in the code of conduct and other places on this website. I hope the fellow viewers enjoy this as much as I will.

[pup55]

link Here is a link from today's thread, thanks to JohnnyMac.

[Twilight]

Thank you. A couple of recent offerings from CERA:
$70-90 barrel price range for crude in 2008. While I am not inclined to dispute this, they blame market psychology rather than fundamentals. I think they overestimate the importance of the former and underestimate the importance of the latter. Greatly. We need a recession to see those prices, and that is a real, not a "mind over matter" factor. Ultimately I may be wrong, but as an amateur, that would not be surprising. In that event however, they would be wrong for the 7th year running.

Last week CERA belatedly accepted $100 oil. $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CERA', 'H')istorical assumptions about the dynamics of oil prices, demand, supply, and the global economy have given way to a new, but still unfolding, paradigm.

[threadbear]

I'm horrified to hear that he was partly responsible for "The Commanding Heights". Total pos propaganda for elite kleptocrats. I can now easily dismiss every word out of the sphincter of this guy's pie hole.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ergin Watch

[Twilight]

If in a few months CERA raise an alarm over adequacy of supplies and turn bullish, and then oil gives back $30, I will be drawing conclusions.

[Bas]

here's one, in which he seems to acknowledge inderectly his bad track record of predicting price:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Predicting oil prices continually demonstrates the perils of prophecy, because oil prices are the derivative of what happens in the global economy and global geopolitics," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Yergin said he could foresee oil prices surging as high as $150 in the next few years or falling as low as $40.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A'): In our view, the current price is somewhat de-coupled from the fundamentals of supply and demand. The market is tight, but we think without these other factors at work, particularly the dollar, the fear of disruption, and the rapid acceleration of costs, we wouldn't see prices where they are now. There's one other factor that's brought us there - it's just the momentum. There's this kind of excitement about it in international markets. People expected it to happen. So to some degree there's been a self-fulfilling prophesy in this.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��Globalization is not going to go away – the question is what kind of globalization do we have,” said Daniel Yergin, Chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)

[joewp]

Simmons on Yergin, in this article in Texas Monthly:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��I’ve always said Dan [Yergin] was a fabulous historian. He’ll write the best history of how we crash.”

[Twilight]

Coming Soon: CERAWeek 2008!

Assorted coverage of WEF.

Of particular note is the following on the unfolding economic crisis:

CNBC: Recession? Debate Is Really About New World Economy

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CNBC', 'S')o did CEOs there expect a recession? "The truth is people really don't know," said Cambridge Energy Research Chairman Dan Yergin, who attended Davos. "It is a bit of a hot house atmosphere where every five minutes we're taking the temperature of what's going on with the global economy. Small talk at noisy receptions was all about global GDP."

"The speeches were balanced between prudence and caution and outright pessimism," said Yergin, who is also CNBC's global energy analyst.

The upbeat crowd at Davos though were those from emerging markets or from commodities exporting economies, or both. He said the debate was centered around the idea that the U.S. economy could be "decoupling" from other economies and the question of whether they are strong enough to stand up on their own. But he says from discussions he heard, it seems the Europeans have now "decoupled" from the decoupling debate and believe their economy will be impacted by a U.S. slowdown.

"If the emerging markets continue to be engines of global growth even if the U.S. goes into a downturn, it will tell you we are in a new chapter of global economic history," said Yergin.

So what's the feeling from these emerging markets that so much hope has been pinned on. "The Chinese message at Davos was "We are rooting for you. We don't want you to slow down," said Yergin.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Greenspan made his comments in response to questions by Daniel Yergin, chairman of CERA.
Greenspan said he would like to see additional use of electric cars.
Nuclear power makes the "most sense" to increase U.S. power generation when all trade-offs are weighed, he said. "We have to use nuclear," Greenspan said. He said more discussion is needed before any "cap" is created as part of a U.S. cap-and-trade carbon program.
A carbon cap would likely lead to lower economic activity and higher unemployment if one were set before emissions-cutting technology is widespread, Greenspan said.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ergin said he could foresee oil prices surging as high as $150 in the next few years or falling as low as $40.

[Chesire]

Yergin and lot of other notables are just keeping the lemmings pacified. Until they have completed their doom preps Some day one or more will get up and say [i]Hey retards you are screwed and have fun playing Mad Max for real

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he most recent bombshell wager: Cambridge Energy Research Associates report that alternative energy investments will -- hold on to your hats! -- top $7 trillion by 2030. That's an audacious number by any measure, and normally it would be enough to suck the oxygen right out of a convention of wind-farm enthusiasts. But that's not the half of it. The most startling aspect of the report is that it barely raised a ripple in the investment community.

[Gandalf_the_White]

It's time is'nt it to get the Danny Bobble Head into production. We can leave some on top of pumps at local stations with a card that says, 'Don't worry oil ill soon be $35 per barrel. Affectionately, Danny.'
We must be at 2.89 yergins by now. And now the poor natios of the world are trying to eat our carbon dioxide emissions while we keep humming along and slurping steak flavored McShakes.

[Novus]

Yergin has to be one of the greatest fools of all time to make that prediction when he did. The greater folly was that half the industrialized world believed him. Good god 2.89 Yergins.

[Gandalf_the_White]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'Y')ergin has to be one of the greatest fools of all time to make that prediction when he did. The greater folly was that half the industrialized world believed him. Good god 2.89 Yergins.

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', '(')...)2.89 yergins(...)