Peak oil rapidly approaching warns oil analyst : Book/Media Reviews

Peak oil rapidly approaching warns oil analyst

by KevO » Fri 08 Feb 2008, 08:33:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne of the hottest topics in the energy industry is the debate about peak oil, which refers to the point in time when global oil production goes into terminal decline. Estimates vary widely as to when peak oil will occur. The US and UK officially say peak oil will not happen before 2030. Others, like oil expert author David Strahan, believe it will happen much sooner.

however, at the same article
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot everyone agrees with the dire predictions for peak oil. A recent report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a US-based consultant to the oil, natural gas and electric power industries, suggests that theories that oil production may soon hit a peak due to steep declines at maturing fields may be inaccurate.

The report said output from the world's oil fields is declining at 4.5 per cent per year - significantly slower than the eight percent rate many analysts have assumed. The study examined over 800 fields which account for two-thirds of current global oil production and half the proved and probable conventional oil reserves.

'Some of the more gloomy, pessimistic 'peak oil' views about the future of oil supplies that are current today result from an assumption of high decline rates,' said CERA analyst Peter Jackson. 'This new analysis provides the basis for more confidence about the future availability of oil.'

CERA estimates that the current global liquids capacity is about 91 million barrels per day and could climb to 112 million barrels per day by 2017.

'This outlook is supported by a key conclusion of this study: there is no evidence that oilfield decline rates will increase suddenly. It is important, though, to continue to research and understand evolving decline trends and further develop insight into the declines.'

The said article

So even the doomer of doomers Strathan) says 2017 (in the article)
CERA just disagree that there will ever be peak oil - period

Peak oil rapidly approaching warns oil analyst

Peak oil rapidly approaching warns oil analyst

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