[TonyPrep]

An interesting tid-bit from the latest full version of the report:

The November production was first reported as 86.55 mbpd. This report revises that down to 86.08 mbpd. That's a whopping revision, though I suppose it could be revised up next month. The December figure was rounded in the summary. It was actually 86.95; a smidge lower and it would have been reported as "only" 86.9 in the summary. I'm not saying the December figure will be revised down as much as the November figure was but, if it were, it would still leave October as the peak.

Saudi production was down 5.2% in 2007, over 2006.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')n interesting tid-bit from the latest full version of the report:

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'S')ignificant revisions will occur for three years ... both at EIA & IEA. You will be pleased to know that four of the last five quarters have been revised upward from what was apparent in the last available monthy revisions from IEA.

As late as June 2007, IEA was reporting 2006 production as 85.1-mbd. Today it is shown as 85.41-mbd. (btw 2007 final is 85.54)

There is an immature camp that believes IEA prefers to show "upward & onward" reports. One does not show that nature of progress by constantly revising up the past data that one is chasing...

[dohboi]

Even if it isn't the a significant contribution yet in these numbers, I find myself wondering about the effect Iraqi oil will have if it ever starts getting to market in significant quantities.

Hasn't the production of Iraqi oil been suppressed by recent events, and whenever that supply comes back on line, isn't that going to show up as a significant up-tick in the undulating plateau?

I don't know if that is the cause of this up-tick, but when that happens, there will doubtless be even more FH's screaming that peak oil has been proven to be a mirage.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'E')ven if it isn't the a significant contribution yet in these numbers, I find myself wondering about the effect Iraqi oil will have if it ever starts getting to market in significant quantities.

Hasn't the production of Iraqi oil been suppressed by recent events, and whenever that supply comes back on line, isn't that going to show up as a significant up-tick in the undulating plateau?

I don't know if that is the cause of this up-tick, but when that happens, there will doubtless be even more FH's screaming that peak oil has been proven to be a mirage.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'E')ven if it isn't the a significant contribution yet in these numbers, I find myself wondering about the effect Iraqi oil will have if it ever starts getting to market in significant quantities.

[Starvid]

Oil production is increased by 4-5 mbpd every year. That is why oil production is flat. Another easy 5 mbpd out of Iraq would mean we could not only beat declines but actually increase absolute production.

For a while...

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'O')il production is increased by 4-5 mbpd every year. That is why oil production is flat. Another easy 5 mbpd out of Iraq would mean we could not only beat declines but actually increase absolute production.

For a while...

[Starvid]

I think it will become harder and harder to make up for the declines, and when we can't do it any longer we have reached peak oil. I think that will happen sometime between 2008 and 2018, most likely in the first half of that time frame.

And I don't think Iraq will increase production soon.

[Armageddon]

I still believe they are using reserves towards their totals to hide the inevitable as long as they can from the public.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') still believe they are using reserves towards their totals to hide the inevitable as long as they can from the public.

[LastViking]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') still believe they are using reserves towards their totals to hide the inevitable as long as they can from the public.

[Starvid]

Gee... I think the Saudis can maintain present production for at least the next 15-20 years.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') still believe they are using reserves towards their totals to hide the inevitable as long as they can from the public.

[kmann]

February OMR is out:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')anuary world oil supply rose 745 kb/d to 87.2 mb/d on new output from Brazil, and recovering non-OPEC output elsewhere.

[Ming]

Let's wait for the revisions.

Just check the evolution between the Jan 16 report and the new one (Feb 13):
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ighlights of the latest OMR
dated: 13 February 2008

Crude oil prices are little changed from mid-January at just over $90/bbl. Weaker projections for global economic growth are offset by low stocks, forecast cold weather in the US and parts of Asia, supply disruptions (Nigeria/North Sea) and concern about Venezuelan supplies. Products have underperformed crude, leading to weak refining margins.

Global oil product demand has been revised down by roughly 200 kb/d to 87.6 mb/d in 2008, following weaker GDP growth figures in an interim report by the IMF. Weaker OECD growth, however, stands against still-robust projections for GDP growth in China and the Middle East, the key oil demand growth centres.

January world oil supply rose 745 kb/d to 87.2 mb/d on new output from Brazil, and recovering non-OPEC output elsewhere. However, a reassessment of 2008 prospects lowers OPEC gas liquids growth by 250 kb/d to 365 kb/d. Rising FSU, Asia-Pacific, Brazil and biofuels supplies generate 2008 non-OPEC growth of 0.97 mb/d.

[Graeme]

IEA cuts world oil demand growth forecast

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld oil demand will grow less quickly than expected this year because of slower economic growth in the United States, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

The IEA, adviser to 27 industrialised countries, forecast in its monthly Oil Market Report that world oil demand growth would average 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd), down 310,000 bpd from its previous estimate.

"It's a big shift in demand growth," said Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA's Oil Industry and Markets division.

"A little bit of that is due to higher demand in 2007, but the biggest chunk is because of weaker economic growth, mainly in the developed economies and particularly the United States."

The reduction follows a lower growth forecast from the International Monetary Fund, which last month cut its global 2008 growth projection to 4.1 percent, a marked slowdown from last year's 4.9 percent pace.

Economic slowdown in the U.S. -- the world's top oil consumer -- will be significant and will last for some time, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Monday.

[anarky321]

i think the key message is that demand is still growing

[Cid_Yama]

The spokesman of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that he was worried about the Venezuelan decision to stop selling oil to the US company Exxon Mobil, and noted that the agency was closely following the situation, reported the news agency, Reuters.

"We are concerned about the physical side of the event and we are carefully following its development," told the executive director of the IEA, Nobuo Tanaka, to the journalists.

http://english.eluniversal.com/2008/02/ ... 4683.shtml

[TonyPrep]

Yeah, we've seen sharp downward revisions two months in a row. Initial publication has seen new peaks in October, November and December. Only October's remained as the peak, after revisions to November's and December's figures. As I don't have access to the IEA data, I can't tell if even October's remains as a peak, though I might be able to back calculate when the full Feb report comes out.