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Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 12 Dec 2007, 19:58:48

China’s oil problems start in China.

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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 10 Jan 2008, 22:16:47

We have not checked up on this for awhile:

Uganda

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')But the fuel shortage has slowed down the flow of the items because transporters tend to hike prices, affecting retail prices. We have maintained our price but normally, prices should have come down with such improved harvests.”


This situation has been going on since Summer. Also, oil=food

Kenya

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e have got 6,000 tonnes of raw materials worth $6m (about sh10.2b) at Mombasa, but for the last two weeks, we have not received any raw materials. The only raw material available in Uganda is scrap,” he said in an interview on Tuesday.

“The situation has been aggravated by the fuel shortage that has restricted movement within and outside Uganda, making our sales drop by 30%, while exports have also dropped by 50%.”


We know there were riots in this land just the other day. I imagine six months of a fuel shortage will tick you off. This has been going on since at least July.


Rwanda

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')OLLOWING the post-election crisis in Kenya that has led to shortage of fuels in neighbouring states, the Rwandan government has sent a team to Tanzania to speed up negotiations for it to access most of her imports through the Dar-es-Salaam port.

Rwanda has been benefiting from Tanzania's proximity to the sea but this trade exchange has been on a low scale.




Bangladesh. Fuel=Fertilizer=Food


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ertiliser, fuel and electricity supply: Three challenges: After having a poor harvest (on an average 12-15 percent less) due to fertiliser shortage, farmers of my area are preparing their lands for boro cultivation. Seedlings are ready on the seedbed. Some have started to erect makeshift houses for irrigation pumps. Within a week, they would start preparing their land for transplantation of boro seedlings. But all depended on the availability of fertiliser. The hassle of collecting urea during Aman season is still haunting them. The high price of TSP (Tk 1,400 a 50-kg bag) and MoP (Tk 1,350 a 50 kg bag) is also a headache for the marginal farmers.




Zimbabwe (fuel=fertilizer=food_

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')op dressing fertiliser, which is critical during this time of the farming season, is now reportedly in short supply.

Agriculture remains the backbone of the country's economy.



Tanzania

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever,on Monday Mdeza acknowledged that the fuel shortage was made worse because local transporters have not loaded fuel from Dar es Salaam for the past three weeks due to stock taking by Tanzania Revenue Authority at Malawi Cargo Centre (MCC).


Iraq (of course, one of the most fuel rich nations on earth)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')I see them feeling cold, so I go out to buy kerosene at any price," Muslih, a 49-year-old city employee told IPS. "My salary cannot pay for kerosene. So I use my savings, or try to avoid other necessities."

This is a problem in home after home in this city of about 300,000 located 40 km north of Baghdad, in the violence and unemployment ridden Diyala province.


I think we get the picture. Fuel=food, this was mentioned specifically in several of these articles, and lack of fuel=chaos.

I did not see Pakistan on here today, but only a matter of time until it shows up again.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 18 Jan 2008, 22:50:55

Canada, one of the so-called "fuel rich" nations

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')fficials with the shipping company charged with delivering fuel to Inuvik, N.W.T., said they are working with petroleum supplier Imperial Oil to deal with a fuel shortage in the community.

Gas stations and businesses in Inuvik have been ordered to ration fuel as a result of the shortfall, which Imperial Oil blamed on shipping issues with Northern Transportation Company Ltd.

The company, which handles barge shipments to communities in the North, faced numerous delays during its shipping season last summer and was unable to deliver a sufficient fuel supply to the town of 3,500.





$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')uangdong manufacturers should expect to suffer shortages of electricity, diesel and coal this year as energy supplies fail to keep pace with the province's surging economic growth....


China again
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby thylacine » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 21:32:39

Southern Africa

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ationwide cuts shut down basic services across Zambia and Zimbabwe for hours over the weekend and at home on Sunday the DA called on the government and Eskom to investigate power exports in view of the fact that South Africa was suffering its own shortages.


Reports on the radio this morning also mention Mozambique and Zimbabwe suffering bad power shortages. Botswana and Namibia are also heavily reliant on SA for their power - so things are looking progressively worse and worse in the whole of southern Africa at the moment.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 22:52:05

I saw that on a wire, Mbeki admitted being wrong in ignoring Eskom's demand projections and calls for adding capacity. He figured they would be wasting money building excess capacity and it could be done later when needed. Lead times, man, lead times.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 13:57:31

Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ead times, man, lead times.


Your talking about Africa!! - lead times are measured by the length of the rope that is tied to your water buffalo.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 22:47:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina issued a severe weather warning on Monday for large swathes of the country already reeling from transport havoc and power shortages caused by the heaviest snowfalls in decades.

The forecast of further severe snowstorms came as hundreds of thousands of travellers remained stranded in airports, train stations, and on highways as they struggled to join their families for the Lunar New Year holiday


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Due to the rain, snow and frost, plus increased winter use of coal and electricity and the peak travel season, the job of ensuring coal, electricity and oil supplies and adequate transportation has become quite severe," Wen said at a cabinet meeting.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') government official said on Monday the country's stockpile of coal for electricity generation had dropped to 21 million tonnes, less than half normal levels at this time of year.

Meanwhile, 17 provinces had taken power-rationing measures including deliberate blackouts in some areas, the official added, amid reports many power lines were knocked out by snow and frost.


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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 00:54:09

Indonesia suffers a HUGE decline in January oil production.

Indonesia produced 830,553 barrels of crude oil in January compared with 837,847 barrels a day in December, BPMigas said today.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 08:39:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '[')url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=akjIRK71iRNE&refer=energy]Indonesia suffers a HUGE decline[/url] in January oil production.

Indonesia produced 830,553 barrels of crude oil in January compared with 837,847 barrels a day in December, BPMigas said today.


A seven thousand barrel a day change is not a HUGE drop, at these leves percentages are unimportant, its the total that matters. Add in the fact that their condensate production went up five thousand bbl/d over the same period and you have a total drop of 2,000 bbl/d. A lot for an individual or larger corporation, a pitenec for a country. Indonesia is a net importer at this point so really they just added 2,000 bbl/d to world demand in January, which is a very tiny amount on a scale of 85,000,000 bbl/d.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 13:33:26

Yeah, maybe for a giant like SA or Russia.

But Indonesia is getting used to serious declines like this now. As most of us know, Indonesia was the key oil player in Asia for many decades and now look at them. Dropping from around 1.5 mbp/d to 830,000 bbls/d in 9 years.

If they continue this pace of decline, and there is no reason to believe otherwise, it would mean well over 250,000 bbls/d less production in the next three years. The very structure of their society could soon be crushed.

That's HUGE!
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby eastbay » Fri 08 Feb 2008, 20:47:16

It's slowly slipping away...

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Daily shipments of North Sea Brent crude, part of the price benchmark for almost two-thirds of the world's oil, will fall by about 15 percent in March.

Tankers are set to load 157,346 barrels a day of Brent crude in March, down from 184,552 barrels a day scheduled for February, according to the loading program of field operator Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's largest oil company.

A total of 4.88 million barrels will be shipped next month, compared with 5.35 million barrels in February.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby eastbay » Fri 08 Feb 2008, 21:32:06

Not by me, it wasn't... and I try to watch this stuff pretty close.

Also, did you happen to notice February with 28 days March with 31 days makes this shortfall significantly greater! It appears the NS collapse is moving along at a somewhat faster than expected pace.

Edit: March has 31 days.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 09 Feb 2008, 04:23:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'I')t appears the NS collapse is moving along at a somewhat faster than expected pace.


Wrong-O! The 280Kbpd shortfall is Total shutting down two fields for repairs.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - French energy firm Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) confirmed on Wednesday that it halted oil and gas output from its Elgin/Franklin fields in the North Sea, shutting around 280,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a spokeswoman said.

"Production will restart as soon as the technical issues have been resolved," a company spokeswoman said.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 09 Feb 2008, 12:52:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Elgin-Franklin zone, which has been producing since 2001, has made a significant contribution to the Group’s activities in the United Kingdom. This project, the largest investment made in the British North Sea over the past twenty years, constitutes a technical milestone, combining the development of the deepest reservoirs in the North Sea (5,500 meters) with temperature and pressure conditions that are among the highest in the world.

(emphasize mine)

TOTAL

I think it is problematic as to how long they can keep production up in these fields. They are definitely difficult.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby pup55 » Sat 09 Feb 2008, 22:59:19

Tajikistan via Tehran Times

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nergy crisis and shortage of electricity as well as severe cold have damaged infrastructures in Tajikistan seriously and caused closeness of 90 percent of the country's factories and production centers.

Some of the European countries have closed their offices in Tajikistan due to lack of electricity in the freezing temperature.

Tajikistan people use electricity as their main fuel for cooking and heating houses.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby pup55 » Sat 09 Feb 2008, 23:02:42

Uganda (still)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')FUEL shortages that were earlier sparked by Kenya's sudden slide into chaos after the disputed December 27 poll are creeping back, with major dealers reporting fast dwindling stocks.

Although the situation has not yet reached the early January crisis levels when a litre of petrol sold as high as Shs10,000, industry insiders yesterday expressed concerns that if supplies fail to improve, acute scarcities would soon set in.

"For the last three days no fuel tanker has come in and obviously that means our dealers are soon running out of stock," Shell's Ivan Kyayonka said.
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby furrydog » Thu 14 Feb 2008, 03:23:34

Nepal

Fuel Shortage Hits Nepal's Capital
By BINAJ GURUBACHARYA – 22 hours ago

KATMANDU, Nepal (AP) — A shortage of fuel in Nepal prompted by strikes and protests in the south forced the shutdown of much of the capital's public transportation system Wednesday, industry officials said.

More than 80 percent of Katmandu's buses, vans and trucks remained parked because authorities were unable to buy diesel and gasoline to run them, said Sharad Sitaula of the Nepal Transport Entrepreneurs Association.

"We are facing a major crisis in our business. We have no income and are unable to pay our drivers and staff. If this continues, many of us will have to shut down our business," Sitaula said.

Hundreds of vehicles, meanwhile, lined up outside a handful of service stations selling rationed fuel in Katmandu, and workers dependent on public transport were forced to walk or stay at home.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hYIC ... QD8UP9T700
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Re: Global Fuel Shortage Reports

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 27 Feb 2008, 22:20:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')rgentina and Brazil are facing the possibility of short-term energy crises from a lack of natural gas needed to fuel industries and generate electricity for residents. Bolivia is sitting in the middle with the region's largest gas reserves.


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