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WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomerism)

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 03:44:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Michigan', 'F')or more analysis (of mine) on Neil's article about me, I invite you to visit...

http://valuesystem.livejournal.com/29855.html

Cheers,

-- Aaron Wissner


Hi Aaron Wissner. Is that really you?

Congrats on the coverage of your peak oil activities and interests in the WSJ.

The WSJ article said you were considering moving. Do you have any advice on places in the US that people might move to if they want to be self-sufficient and somewhat protected from the effects of peak oil? 8)
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby Michigan » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 13:47:21

Hi there,

Here are a bunch of responses all rolled into one post:

Yes, resource depletion is absolutely a symptom.

It sounds like you've watched "What a Way to Go: Life at the End of Empire" or read Daniel Quinn's "Ishamel" triology.

The root problem is bigger, much bigger.

http://valuesystem.livejournal.com/29314.html

http://valuesystem.livejournal.com/27244.html

By the way, I am Aaron Wissner, "the person in the article".

I believe what you are referring to as "religion" is commonly known as a "paradigm shift", i.e., a new way of looking at the world brought about by the understanding of one previously unknown yet important bit of information.

That oil is a limited, finite, non-renewable resource is as much of a fact as that we breath air. It is fine to get all metaphysical and philosophical about it, but reality is here all the same.

On the purpose of the article, I think this rebadge from the WSJ sums it up best...

<b>Preparing for the Worst Oil Shock</b>
Troubled by the theory that the world's oil production is about to peak, thousands of people are spurning cars, buying local produce and working from their homes as they gird for the looming crunch.
<i>From the WSJ Online Home Page, Jan. 27, 2008</i>

I'm still working on that trust for Matt... ;-)

I wouldn't mind having a solar oven. Those can be used while camping as well, right?

Great "carotid artery" example: I'll try to remember that one.

On moving...

We looked at some land about 5-miles east of Lake Michigan, north of Muskegon. Good wind, good water, tolerable soil, not too far from a freeway, but not too close either, north of all the major population centers. We found one really nice wooded 40 acre spot, but it was way beyond our price range, and since we are both currently NOT willing to go back into debt, we're going to have to wait until our savings grows. With a lot of luck, the major badness won't happen for a couple years yet. A lot of luck.

Currently, I'm most interested in trying to convince my mom and dad to give us a fraction of their 80 acres, so we could build the zero-energy house, and be close to family, and so the baby could grow up knowing his grandparents. Again, good water (about 10 feet down in sand), 5 miles from the east shore of Lake Michigan, away from population centers... but the soil type is really poor; can't grow much other than apple trees, pear trees, and asparagus... For a couple of non-farmers, that is the probably the biggest drawback of this plan.

By the by, for more reflection on the article, I just updated:

http://valuesystem.livejournal.com/29855.html

Thanks again for the interesting discussion.

-- Aaron Wissner
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 15:28:01

Hi Aaron:

I see articles like the one about you in the Wall Street Journal as the beginning of an attempt by the WSJ to educate their very influential readership about the reality of Peak Oil.

The WSJ has always been the newspaper of the ownership class of the US economy, and one of the biggest boosters of unlimited capitalism and economic expansion. I think the reality of Peak Oil is starting to sink in even at the WSJ.

What do you think? 8)
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 16:25:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedinvest', 'H')is stock of food and spices is good for a hurricane or earthquake, but not for anything more extended.

Undoubtedly there will be dislocations, one worthy challenge is just to be in a position to get through them with a minimum of assistance. Soon after the Cold War ended, everything we knew about civil defence went into skips. Earlier last summer the UK came within a couple of inches of water of having to launch a full-scale relief effort for a whole county. Simply because the new norm in the industrialised world is to have food and water on hand for only a couple of days. It is common sense and good citizenship to relieve this burden at least.
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 18:01:17

Cool that the WSJ corrected the URl and got Matt's link correct, it's dot-net not dot-com.

And, "religious conversions" like this happen when one's life is not going well. No, I'm not saying Mr. Wissner's wife is about to leave him or he's about to lose his job due to the discovery of his fixation on Girl Scout Cookie porn, I just mean that the normal American way of life is not a lot of fun, and periodically someone wakes up and realizes how bogus it is. They go and join the Moonies or the No-Cars or the Hare Krishas, or whatever, because those ways of life are generally actually better - better in that they are closer to our small-tribe, hunter-gatherer, mutual-sharing way of life that we're designed for.

This is why I want to become a street artist, street musician, and all-round bum, if I can swing it. There's far, FAR less to worry about, and a "bare subsistence" level of survival being $300 a month instead of $3000 makes for a much less stress-filled life. People get to know you on the street, people actually value you more as a person if you drew that neat portrait of their kid or you can play that really cool solo from "Sultans of Swing" as opposed to the usual American work-world, where you're just another skinbag in the way.

Being prepared for bad times is a good thing anyway, since the US Empire really is breaking down, and there are tons of "pinch points" in its structure that are easily attacked by those who want to do a lot of damage. Having food saved up, getting out of the stock market casino and into gold and silver, and bullets, is just plain smart. Getting and staying out of debt is a very good idea. Buying a house/land that can house you with a minimum of energy and where you can grow at least a garden is a very good idea. Even taking Peak Oil out of the picture, living the life of a Good American is hell. Long work hours, long commute hours, keeping up with the Joneses, housing and feeding kids without ever actually raising or getting to know them, etc. Any movement that gets you at least partially out of this rat-race is good. Peak Oil is better than most.
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby Michigan » Tue 29 Jan 2008, 01:08:33

The WSJ, and as far as I can tell, Neil in particular, are trying to get the peak oil discussion out there. If you read his recent stories, peak oil is in there, usually between the lines, but something right there in black and white.

I'm not sure about the ownership class angle, I'm not used to thinking in those terms, or I should say, I haven't stretched that paradigm in a while. Could be that it is a plee to the ultra powerful to keep in mind peak oil as they attempt to keep the economy going. At some point, it is going to contract; why not just let it go now rather than just edging it on and on...?

...

Here's one way to look at the food and spices angle, from the purely hypothetical angle of course, I don't have to have enough food to last forever, just enough to outlast you... Oh, did I actually say that? LOL My grandparents always had stocked pantries. The Morman's are supposed to have a TWO YEAR pantry. Mine is just convenient, and as I like to say, just a bit of insurance for a rainy day.

...

"Pinch points", I like that.

I don't know about the bullets thing. I'm hoping the community building efforts will get us beyond needing that.

Out of debt. Done. I agree, do it, it is very nice.

...

Neil got about 50 emails about the article. He forwarded me a few... what did he get? You probably could read my mind if you wanted...

- GUY IS NUTS!
- LOTS OF OIL!
- TAR SANDS!
- OIL SHALE!
- NUCLEAR FUSION!
- etc... lol

There were some good ones as well, mostly from "relocalization" groups. :-)

We have a long way to go... a long way.
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby eastbay » Tue 29 Jan 2008, 01:21:43

Aaron,

I showed my dear wife the article. She commented, 'hey, that sounds just like you.' Interestingly we both arrived at the shock of it all at about the same time... as did many here. We too have made many life changes due to this, again, as have many here.

Welcome to the po.com group. Stick around. We discuss about every possible angle of The Common Disaster... we squabble a bit now and then but through it all we're all mostly on the same page on this.

We have a real wealth of information here so enjoy!
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 29 Jan 2008, 06:59:35

Eastbay wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')elcome to the po.com group. Stick around. We discuss about every possible angle of The Common Disaster... we squabble a bit now and then but through it all we're all mostly on the same page on this.

We have a real wealth of information here so enjoy!


Hello Aaron,

well, except for Comrade Eastbay. He is a Commie!

Just kidding!! ; - ))

As for the choice of land, well, obviously the better quality the agricultural land the better - if you're going to farm it. But if it is only say 40 acres, and some of that is woodland, then really you're talking about a big garden. Then you can take the time to build-up the soil through composting and adding manure as well as other bio-matter. Rainfall and access to water is then likely more important.

I would prefer 640 acres, but I can make due on 160. Even that is pretty small to grow your own food, and generate enough of a surplus to buy what you cannot grow. Land is getting quite expensive near us relative to what it can produce. I see no reason to over-pay, especially if it is on borrowed money with interest.

It would be nice to be close to your family and support network. Thanks for the clarifications on the video. I also thought it was insufficient to deal with any 'long-emergency' or post peak oil depletion, but now the preparations make more sense. Thanks.

MrBill (Token Resident Optimist)! ; - )
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby Michigan » Sun 03 Feb 2008, 11:35:57

Thanks, I'm glad to have finally taken my first steps into peakoil.com. Seems like the place to be for the peak oil aware.

The preparations are just the same types of things that my sister-in-law on the Atlantic coast of North Carolina does for hurricanes. But in this case, I do entertain the thought of very long duration problems. Thus my desire to come up with a "genverter", which would be a propane powered generator that charges up a battery bank, to run the house. Pretty much identical to the G.M. Volt as far as how the system works.

Most of my efforts are on the community level. The Local Future charter group in Middleville is off to a good start, as is "The International Conference on Peak Oil and Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability" for May 30, May 31 and June 1, 2008 in Grand Rapids.

http://localfuture.org/articles/conference.htm

As to the land, my parents own 80 acres in rural north-west Michigan, so I just have to convince them to give or sell me a small slice, so I can start planning and building the unique model zero energy home. Makes its own heat, cold, and electricity, without the use of PV, wind, bio, or hydro.

http://valuesystem.livejournal.com/21416.html
http://valuesystem.livejournal.com/12785.html

Yes, it will be a lot of soil augmentation to start. I just hope we have time to make this transition, not just for my family, but for all of us.
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sun 03 Feb 2008, 11:46:27

Especially, with the banking problems that now exist, I wonder at the wisdom of keeping anything in a safe deposit box.
If the bank closes or goes under, just how easy will it be to access those boxes?
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby Michigan » Sun 03 Feb 2008, 11:55:16

Yes, I realize that. My hope is that we'll see the signs a few days, or at least a few hours, in advance. My bank is very solvent, and very small, so there should be other bank failures that preceed its own, and we'll be out-a-there before then. Plus, my wife did not want me keeping any gold in the house, so that's the way it goes.

The bigger issue with bank closures is that they will NOT allow you to take out all your money at once on demand, if you have quite a bit on hand. During one test of this that I did in the fall, they squaked at an $7,000 cash withdrawl, and stated that $10,000 was the absolute cash withdrawl limit, but they got to pick all the denominations for that, and only that much with manager approval, based on cash reserves at that branch.

So, for those of use with larger sums in our demand accounts, it makes it a bit... difficult... to imagine making a full withdrawl if that unfortunately and grim day ever comes.
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby billp » Tue 05 Feb 2008, 21:43:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') wonder at the wisdom of keeping anything in a safe deposit box


History

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eware anyone prematurely calling a bottom.

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." - Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted" - E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect." - Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year." - U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929

"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about." - Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us." - Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..." - Harvard Economic Society, June 28, 1930

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression." - Harvard Economic Society, Nov 15, 1930

"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible." - Harvard Economic Society, Oct 31, 1931

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed...and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." - President Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1933



cheers
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby Michigan » Tue 05 Feb 2008, 22:26:33

Yes, and then gold was illegal to be held in the USA by individuals for something like 50 years. The moral, get out when possible.
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Tue 05 Feb 2008, 23:07:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Michigan', '
')-- Aaron Wissner
Hey, Aaron Wissner, you got a moment of fame, didn't you? Congrats. :-D
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Re: WSJ: Article on Peak Oil (ok, it is really about doomeri

Unread postby Michigan » Tue 05 Feb 2008, 23:31:53

So it seems. :-)

I was really hoping for a TV talk show to call and invite me out, but I guess that will have to wait for some other occasion... lol

The main thing now is to get "The International Conference on Peak Oil and Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability" set. I'm trying to get some nationally known speakers, and if I can manage that, then everything else will fall into place.

http://localfuture.org/articles/conference.htm

Cheers to all,

Aaron


...
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