by Flowerr » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 08:37:19
Nah. there are no conspiracies dude. Take your medicine.
I love it when he says, that large "exposure of frauds is actually good for a bank these days."
hokay.
oh here is a rough transcript, some words may be incorrect but I just plugged it into via voice and it spit this out...
if its wrong tell me.
Super rough transcript with some sentances missing and stuff but the idea is close:
_________________________
Tale of the Fed tape.
where the Fed is going next week, with Christopher zook CAZ investments: Richard Yamarone, Argus Research and CNBC's Stephen Liesman.
All right, yesterday's Fed rate cut putting the spotlight on Fed Chairman Ben Bernenke and how well he has been navigating the central bank through the waters of the credit crises, economic reporter Steve leasman? joins us now with a report.
and where we're going, Aaron, thank you very much, yesterday's announcement it amounts to a sea change in the course of the Fed here, after swinging back and forth for the last six months, I guess you could say it is "hard to port!. All hands on deck", fighting recession. But that's not how it all started here .
Remember the Fed crisis voted on August 7th, the main concern was inflation, and on August 10th, just three days later, the Fed forced to provide liquidity. By August 16th the risk to economy increased appreciably, leading to a 50 point base cat, and by August 17th a 50 point cut in discount rate was given. This was just in the discount window and it took 10 days. Now let's go back to September and October remember that 50 point basis cut happened on September 18th but the Fed said, "we really couldn't judge the risk until October 31st where a 25 basis point cut happened, and the Fed said said " the risk was balanced". Remember it was August 9th when the market hit an all-time high. December 11th, was a 25. Bases cat followed by the announcement of the term Mach's facility and then January 22nd, 75 basis point cut saying the risk was relate to economic growth, the bottom line, the Fed has waffled, about how deeply the credit crunch and the housing market would affect the economy.
Yesterday's statement, a different order of magnitude, there is little short term wiggle room here, in the new Fed take, the biggest danger to the economy is a risk to economic growth. What does that mean? Expect the policies to probably remain in place for months this time. At least a couple meetings here, it won't go back and forth, meaning more and faster rate cuts. More and faster rate cuts with little reluctance. Mark back to you.
so, did they make a Fed didn't make the right call? Will their actions settled down the market,? The edge, with Christopher zouk, pause we wouldn't be surprised if we see every take of yesterday's lows.
Now to Richard yammer on, Argus Research, he believes there's more trouble on the horizon. Do you think there is a position that the Fed knows something that we don't, or are they at least more worried about stuff that we're not knowing about?
Well, at least things we are not privy to. I have a feeling, you do not cut the Fed funds rate by 75 points which is more than any stimulus we got after 911. And then prepared to do another 50 next week to write a potentially sinking economic ship. It is not about economics. And has nothing about the economy is nothing to do about the economy going into recession, these cuts work with long and variable lags, we're not gonna see anything come to come from this for another 12 for 18 months. So a week they can't wait? It's all about the financial market. Trust the, there's nothing to do here about the economic, but to the economic data and we've gotten hits over the last three weeks we're only 22 days into the quarter in know, we've had 56,000 job 56,000 job benefit claims decline actually in the last three weeks. .
It's only about the market, it's about to panic.
Chris zouk, do believe that? I do, I do believe that. And I don't like that fact. The Fed needs manage the economy not manage what the market itself is doing. We don't want to see the market go down a lot, nobody does, but is not the Fed's job to stop it, if that's where it's headed.
Lady reporter: going to sense your, a lot of people are sitting watching saying, when my son goes to do right? There is this panic at that the does that mean you just go ahead and and take your money out of your lost quite a bit about? In the last few weeks? To try to go ahead and buy? I mean, what you do. Chris said.
Chris: Well I mean you have to look at which time horizon is a long-term investor you have to find opportunity in this plan the guests said this a few minutes ago. In other are definite dislocations, and value, that someone with longer-term of 35 years is going to be paid extremely well for going ahead and taking those stocks today as scary as they might be.
Plantae reporter: ok before we get Chris back in here what is the take on this, can give any specific names of stocks?
Agreed specific name would be office Depot, this the consumer discretionary line have led us to climb. The firms believe that that they discounted most, if not all of the risk in the economy, to their business. Office Depot has come down from 40 unchanged to 12 and change. As we see is at least a doubling in the stock into five years and we could make a case even triple this, which will still not take it back to its highs in the next five years.
Richard, what are your new investment thoughts in light of the new reality?
Oh, I don't know, don't shoot me, I'm The economist.
I know you are an economist, but people will say look, is a marked fair value, undervalued?
I think there is something bigger looming. I think, trouble. I mean, obviously, I would believe, trouble. We heard from Bernenke on Thursday, because the Bush stimulus plan on Friday, also a sudden three days later read a 75. CAT and be that the Bush administration wanted to push up, more than a hundred and 50 billion, I'm telling you somebody, somebody went to the Fed over the weekend and knocked on the Fed store and said listen I am big I'm someone big and I have a contagious disease and I slept with the world, you better start doing something.
I disagree with that. I think which have is a typical situation. Everyone has woken up and realize the problem is there. And of those on the show this last February telling you how this was going to be the problem and no way lessened but now all the sudden your mechanic looking at a situation now where we have to focus some of the side of the equation and if it were the recovery is at an area there very opportunities and a time to buy and the time to buy those is when there's panic in.
But since your last appearance in February economist posted a 3.9% increase in GDP and consumers are spending some are in the vicinity around 3% is not weakness is not a recession, is not about the economy.
I'm sorry we have to disagree we love that.