[namenick]

First of all, here's really good currency converter.

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.html

Note that it includes oil (Brent crude) because of my and others urging of Prof. Antweiler. It also includes the three precious metals. In order to use it most efficiently you will need to type in on the main page, 2007 in place of 2006 and 2008 in place of 2007. Then comparisons of currencies can be made for a longer perios of time and right up to today's.

I wanted to bring everyone's attention to the USD as compared to the Euro. You will note that the USD has held in the area of the high 60's with the Euro for quite a while now and even made a significant recovery in the last few days. But today it took a big drop again and I'm wondering if this is going to be the beginning of something important happening. Consider that the magic number of .666 represents another magic number of $1.50 and the significance can be appreciated. Also consider that one of the biggest threats to the US today is the possibility of the world switching to the Euro for oil transactions. (the oil bourse)

Pedictions anyone?

I'll just mention that today there is news circulating on the apparent fact that Bush's first efforts to save the economy and prop up the dollar seem to be failing. Beside that is the fact that people in the US seem to be starting to understand that their wars and foreign policy brought about by Bush and his neocon gang of thugs is at the cause of most of the problems. And unfortunately they appear to have no way to turn to get themselves out of the mess. No candidate is promising to do anything much different at the present and simply for the obvious reason that the US needs to stay in Iraq and win it's war for oil. To me it's all become too obvious now that I hardly entertain arguments to the contrary.

For the American people who see their country going to hell in a handbasket, what to do, what to do? Ron Paul is a complete dope and way too extremist in his meanderings on libertarianism to take seriously, but who would end the foolishness for them? A totally new candidate coming out of the woodwork? Al Gore as an independent? Has the situation gotten that bad that the American people would totally upset the status quo two party system apple cart? Maybe not quite yet but let the dollar get closer to .60 on the Euro and the oil bourse begin to take place and anything's possible.

It's also worth mentioning that all the positive hype of the Iraq war going well is starting to look like it's reversing. Already there are 30 US millitary dead in Iraq and the number could be hitting 40 by month's end. http://icasualties.org/oif/US_chart.aspx (4 more on monday) This is mostly important to Americans because it's perhaps the last hope of shining a positive light on the Bush admin. and their accomplices. If the war continues on the downward trend for Bush then the Repubs lose any momentum they ever had and they lose the middle ground which could perhaps support them if they saw a successful war effort. Yet they know the Dems aren't going to do it for them either!

Hoping for some ideas on this and some predictions. Wishful thinking or otherwise?

[scienceteacher]

Thanks for the fx link.

Predictions:

Oil 150+ Buy USO, DBO
Gold 1250+ Buy GLD DBP GDX
Silver 20+ Buy SLV SLW HL PAAS CDE

Inflation 10-12% DBC, DBA, DBB

Dow 9500 Short with SRS, SKF, SDS, DXD TWM

Dollar - collapse continues Buy Euro, Yen Remnimbi

Pray!

[americandream]

The problem is simple. The US has lived beyond its means, greed got the better of business ethics to the degree that these clowns were selling toilet paper to make a buck and consequently have not only destroyed the last remnants of trust, but left us with an iceberg of unknown and only slowly emerging bad debt...yes folks, who knows what's yet to emerge in the news?

In addition, idiot countries such as China and India are trying to emulate the American way of life by what, selling widgets to the over stretched American consumer. Duh!

Add to that the narcissistic lunacy of post holocaust Jewry and their feverish attempts to redeem their shame at the hands of the Germans by rediscovering their martial prowess in the ME and via Neo-Con zealotry, and you have a world in the thrall of some B rated horror movie.

Hopefully, some of us will be able to rise above this collective madness and collect our wits.

[ohanian]

Check out oil (brent crude) compare with Egyptian Pounds

From 1st Jan 2001
To 31st Dec 2007

[namenick]

Ohanian- I did just that and it appears the Egyptian Pound has increased 5 fold and more.

science teacher- That's got to be good advice but maybe it's too obvious now. Gold especially is now going to be a risky one. Maybe everything hinges on the US getting some kind of hope with a new candidate for pres who can bail their asses out of Bush's mess. Btw, I am led to understand that China has more gold than anyone and is buying it up like crazy. Yes/no?

americandream- I appreciate your sentiments as regards Israel but I would just state it a little differently. They are backed by the US and so they know that they can continue to expand the settlements and finally push out the Palestinians completely. I'm surprised that they haven't made more territory gains than they have. But if the proposition gets to expensive politically for the US then they are going to be in some trouble. They have absolutely no intention of ever giving up any territory IMO and it's all a cruel hoax for Olmert to pretend that they are. At least it buys time though and that's better than nothing. It's a catch 22 for the US because they know that to support Israel is going to be the cause of future terrorist attempts against them. How much does the US government care if a few thousand good citizens get whacked? Probably worth it to Bush or his successor if the payment in oil dividends is there to make up for it.

And I would just add, I think that the US support of Israel is not for Israelis as much as it is for the US. The US needs the Israelis as a proxy in the ME and an excuse to defend it. If the US had no interest in the oil they would drop the Zionists like a hot potatoe, regardless of the screams of anguish which would come from the lobbyists.

[MrBill]

The only workable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that I think stands a chance of actually working...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The Lord thy God has warned you and warned you, but you have, in your hatred and selfishness, chosen to turn away from Him," read a press statement from God, delivered by seraphim and cherubim acting as His earthly agents. "Prepare now to face His wrath and be drowned beneath the cleansing waters of His righteous rage. Children of Israel and Palestine, you who would not repent your sinful ways and live together as God's children, prepare to face your doom under the unstoppable deluge of the Lord's retribution."

[steam_cannon]

That's some nice scripting and programming!

Being able to compare changes in the dollar to Euros or Oil looks very useful! Lots of things have been happening...


The dollar has lost almost 30% of its value -- and that is just relative to other currencies, which are also being systematically devalued by their central banks.
http://www.honestylog.com/root/2006/11/ ... ing_w.html



http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/edito ... /0416.html

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '[')url=http://www.theonion.com/content/node/27915]God Re-Floods Middle East[/url]

[namenick]

steam_cannon- From your honestylog link:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a deflationary environment, the dollar becomes strong, as demand for dollars grows as assets come down in value. People want to get their hands on cash, as cash buyers are a scarce commodity, and those with cash are just as likely to wait on a purchase, as the asset they're considering is losing value with each passing day in this deflationary environment. In a deflation, dollars goes up in value as just about everything else sinks.

[namenick]

Mr. Bill- I think what makes the Onion's religious humour such good comedy is the fact that it is based on what many people see as prophesy. Same with Colbert's schtick.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('namenick', 's')team_cannon- From your honestylog link:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a deflationary environment, the dollar becomes strong, as demand for dollars grows as assets come down in value. People want to get their hands on cash, as cash buyers are a scarce commodity, and those with cash are just as likely to wait on a purchase, as the asset they're considering is losing value with each passing day in this deflationary environment. In a deflation, dollars goes up in value as just about everything else sinks.

[namenick]

steam_cannon- It's just my own way of seeing it but I realize there is a very large school of thought which don't subscribe to my ideas in the least. Sometimes a good debate is a learning experience and that's probably the main reason why I bother to post on this forum. Hopefully it's not just preaching to the choir because there's not much to be gained from that other than a reinforcement of our own ideas. Who among the majority of the people here wouldn't want to be proven wrong on the catastrophe many of us see coming?

[evilgenius]

Yes, I think deflation is going to make oil cheaper in US dollars. The thing is the dollar is going to get strong enough so that relative weakness of other currencies will price them out of oil and leave more for the US and those still rich enough to keep buying it.

First they deflate domestically. Then they lure the sovereign wealth funds and take their money. That causes a sort of reinflation but only domestically and only amongst the upper and the less threatening parts of the middle class. When the ME and Brazillians and such find out that China is the one and only for TPTB they are going to go apeshit. When the S really HTF (a year or two) it will be such a setback that the US will be so broke that they won't be able to afford to fight back.