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FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby Tyler_JC » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 16:35:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '1')1% is outta sight ! But companies will often cut their dividend if the yield gets above a certain number like 10% so you rarely will sustain that.


Most of the time if a company is not doing good then it will hold it's dividend constant or decrease the dividend payout. Thus reducing the dividend.

If a company is doing well then the stock price goes up thus reducing the dividend yield also since it is a percentage value. The dividend amount might be the same or actually increase but the yield would decrease because of the higher stock price.

11% is extremely rare and is usually temporary. Stocks prices either go up or the company could do a stock split.

Vice Versa, now is a good time to buy solid companies that do pay dividends because you will have a low cost basis and when the companies begin to do better in the future then your yield will go up considerable but this is for the mid to long-term investor. Not for the short term or afraid investor.

joetrout


Posters have forgotten what I was talking about already.

A 75% decline in the DJIA would lead to an average dividend yield of 11% for the Dow 30 stocks.

A great dividend is one that pays out a yield equal to the 10 year note. That means that even if the stock doesn't move, you still cover your opportunity cost.

I just don't see stocks falling below that point.

The current ten year yield is 3.5%.

That implies a "fair price" for the DJIA of around 9,800 assuming that investors believed that stocks were going nowhere for ten years.

That would be a 30% decline from the peak of 14,000.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby LoneSnark » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 16:54:17

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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby Armageddon » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 17:01:09

At what point will countries stop accepting dollars for oil ?
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby Concerned » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 17:01:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')aven't there been some huge cash infusions into the major banks from places like Singapore, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi? I would also note this:


These people are not stupid. They are advised by often western professional fund managers, they are not going to waste hundreds of billions propping up bankrupt western banks.


western professional fund managers and these people are not stupid.

I'll reserve my opinion at this stage.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby bodigami » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 17:13:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NTBKtrader', 'I') bought gold stocks when gold was around $400 however those stocks have not seen the appreciation that gold has had.


Which stocks ? I lost the context.

Last time gold was 400 looks to me like mid-year '04. You could now sell for what 800 or 900 ?

Had you bought Apple stock in Mid '04 (an obvious tech) you would have paid 20/share.

Apple is currently 155/share (this is after the plunge), it had been trading at 200/share.

Note: I did not buy Apple stock, but my next door office mate did and keeps bringing this up to me when I try and convince him how screwed we are.

So Gold has a 2X return since '04 and Apple an 8X return.

Am I missing something ?

My BBT is up today but my GE is getting slammed. Rail is holding steady. I expect all be be down at weeks end once the cocaine, I mean interest rate cut wears off.


Even Apple, which has one of the greatest ROI (IMO actually deserved), is falling. The tech stocks are wild and merciless, they can go up fast but they can also fall to oblivion in a heartbeat.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby bodigami » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 17:13:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '(')...)


Isn't 11% a reasonable dividend rate? If you own a store it would be reasonable to make that amount over your invested capital? Besides that, profits might fall or even turn into losses during a recession.


It depends on growth expectations, if there is no growth or negative growth expectations, I would argue yes 11% is a reasonble yield for all but the most solid blue-chips.


What's a blue-chip?
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby SchroedingersCat » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 20:42:30

Does it matter that the banks reserves are now negative? As in they have borrowed form the Fed to cover all their reserve requirements and then some? I saw a mention of this over at TOD and had to look for myself:
AGGREGATE RESERVES OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS

Check out the second chart: Not seasonally adjusted. 8O
Total Non-borrowed Required
39989 -1387 38278

This has not happened in the last 50 years that the Fed's post data for. Not even close.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby patience » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 22:27:59

YEAH! It means the banks are insolvent. No reserves of their own. And from a Tickerforum thread, The FDIC has to FIRST pay the FHLB, if they have leins on an insolvent bank. Most of the big banks do have FHLB money, so depositors are out of luck.

These banks are BROKE. Dead banks walking. And I see people debating what to do with an IRA? I'd rather have 60% to 80% than 0%.

So, we got insolvent banks, little to no FDIC protection, (FDIC is hiring to deal with 300+ banks going under next year-rumor from and "insider"), and J6P tapped out. An impotent FED, whose job is to protect banks, not the sheeple. And we have really stinking stock fundamentals.

Okay, I'm not buying any gold, or gold stocks. Roosevelt proved how secure gold is, and the past month proved to me how secure banks and stocks are. I ain't no rocket scientist, nor money guru, so, I'm just gonna buy groceries and tools and stuff. You folks have fun in the markets, and best of luck to you. I think you're gonna need it.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby Armageddon » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 23:28:45

The Fed will print as much money as it needs to and keep the banks propped up. This thing won't tank yet. A slow painful death is the plan. $5.00 gas, $4.00 bread and $6.00 milk by the summer.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby LoneSnark » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 23:55:10

^ Can we quote you in a few months?
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby Armageddon » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 00:03:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '^') Can we quote you in a few months?



Absolutely, barring a staged terror attack in the US, a US attack on Iran or a huge hurricane in the GOM this summer, then all bets are off.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby Pretorian » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 01:10:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he Fed will print as much money as it needs to and keep the banks propped up. This thing won't tank yet. A slow painful death is the plan. $5.00 gas, $4.00 bread and $6.00 milk by the summer.


I wish. I pay $7 for milk and $5-6 for bread right now.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby Pretorian » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 01:13:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'A')t what point will countries stop accepting dollars for oil ?


Mongols from Golden horde were issuing bronze dirhems instead of silver ones, and inscription on them clearly said--" accept this coin, or else..."
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby Armageddon » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 01:23:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he Fed will print as much money as it needs to and keep the banks propped up. This thing won't tank yet. A slow painful death is the plan. $5.00 gas, $4.00 bread and $6.00 milk by the summer.


I wish. I pay $7 for milk and $5-6 for bread right now.


I am paying $ 2.69 for gas, $2.29 for bread and $3.99 for milk, so if my predictions are correct, that would be one hell of an increase. BTW, where are you at ?
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby SchroedingersCat » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 02:16:46

I'm sorry. Perhaps my last post wasn't clear. All of the banks that fall under the supervision of the Federal Reserve are as of last week supposed to have about 39 billion dollars in reserve. They have -1.4 billion. Up until Dec 2007 they were hanging on. As of now, they not only don't have these reserves, they are in the red. All the reserves the banks are supposed to have are instead actually borrowed from the Fed. Those 'anonymous auctions' the Fed set up a couple months back? That was so no one would know who was in the hole. Now it doesn't matter: they are all in hock.

That story about Citibank limiting ATM withdrawals? They didn't have a security problem -- they have no money! None of the banks have money. The Fed is the only bank in the US right now. The rest are insolvent. My guess is all the write downs the banks took because of the worthless debt on their balance sheets would probably add up to about 40 billion. What happens when more write downs are required?

This has never happened. Can't wait for the next report.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby yesplease » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 04:26:33

How do you know all banks are insolvent, isn't the nonborrowed reserve the sum of all lending institutions? By that I mean couldn't some be solvent and others could be pretty far up shit creek, with the net being the nations toe in the water?

Back in the USSA... :lol:
Last edited by yesplease on Wed 23 Jan 2008, 04:36:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby Bas » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 04:33:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', '
')What's a blue-chip?


The big established companies like GM, Ford, the big banks etc; named after blue poker chips which are worth a lot/most, or so I've read.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby mkwin » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 06:44:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')Posters have forgotten what I was talking about already.

A 75% decline in the DJIA would lead to an average dividend yield of 11% for the Dow 30 stocks.

A great dividend is one that pays out a yield equal to the 10 year note. That means that even if the stock doesn't move, you still cover your opportunity cost.

I just don't see stocks falling below that point.

The current ten year yield is 3.5%.

That implies a "fair price" for the DJIA of around 9,800 assuming that investors believed that stocks were going nowhere for ten years.

That would be a 30% decline from the peak of 14,000.


Equity returns, due to their increases risk, especially in a recessionary environment, have to have a far higher return to investors than the risk-free rate. The opportunity cost should be the base plus a margin of 400+ basis points to reflect the increased risk of holding the asset. A 7-9% dividend in a no growth/recessionary environment is about where its going to be. On this basis, the S&P500 could fall below 500 points.
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby Ferretlover » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 10:37:52

That Mastercard commercial ("Gallon of milk: $125.
Groocery shopping when you're not hungry? Priceless!") was aired again last night.
Gee, what do you think Mastercard is trying to tell us?......
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Re: FED Cuts rates by 75 basis points

Postby shakespear1 » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 13:06:51

Someone at MC is getting a "Wall Street Root Canal" and subconsciously reflecting it in their decision to make such a commercial.

:x SICK !!!!
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