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Black Wednesday 2008?

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Black Wednesday 2008?

Postby Bas » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 23:28:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter dropping more than 3 percent on Monday, the Nikkei fell nearly 5 percent on opening Tuesday. Across the Korea Strait in South Korea, Seoul's KRX 100 index was down about 4 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened lower, falling 5.0 percent.

The Australian Securities Exchange was down nearly 5 percent, and the Singapore stock exchange was down about 3.7 percent in early trading.

Investors nervously watched for other Asian markets to open -- shares in India's Sensex fell nearly 11 percent -- a four-month low -- on Monday and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 5.5 percent, its largest percentage drop since the Sept. 2001 terrorist attacks.



CNN

The whole world is waiting nervously for the Dow to open, 12 hours from now...
Last edited by Bas on Wed 23 Jan 2008, 10:19:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby Nicholai » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 23:36:14

I went to school today and didn't hear anyone talking about it. I don't even think people know. It's so embarrassing.
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby perdition79 » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 23:39:01

Two days of Asian market losses. Today may be the day for the U.S. markets. Guess it's time to stock up on toilet paper, ammo, and whiskey.
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby Novus » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 23:39:51

I would like to go the more classical term by dubbing this:

The Panic of 2008
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby Nicholai » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 23:56:35

Most scientists and intellectuals have just given up hope while the rest of the population sits dazed by consumerism. When the crash comes, no one will have expected it except the top 1%.
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby mmasters » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 00:18:16

The fed better have some emergency rate cut at market open.
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby I_Like_Plants » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 00:31:23

But a rate cut won't fix it. May relieve things for oh...... 3 hours?
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby lawnchair » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 00:35:08

My question is, what could the ECB, Bank of England, etc do overnight to help? More "digit infusions"?
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby perdition79 » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 00:46:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'B')ut a rate cut won't fix it. May relieve things for oh...... 3 hours?


Absolutely right. Even 100 basis points across the board at 9:30 AM wouldn't help. Bond ratings have been cut, more collateral is needed, banks won't lend money as generously as they have a couple years back. No government-sponsored free money "stimulus package" will work. Asian markets are down 5 percent again today!! This economy is toast.

I go to bed at 4 AM eastern time; when I wake up at noon I expect either violent rioting or bread lines.
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby mmasters » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 01:01:03

Yup, wont do a lot but better to act sooner then later!
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby fireplaceguy » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 01:02:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'B')lack Tuesday 2008
That's the perfect title for this topic.

Although our markets were closed today, the Dow is down over 400 points in electronic trading. I think I'll stick around and watch the open on tv just out of morbid curiousity. Hope I'm wrong, but I suspect we'll test the post 9/11 market lows before this is over...

Does anyone else like gold at 1000 and silver at 20 this week?
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby jasonraymondson » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 01:05:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perdition79', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'B')ut a rate cut won't fix it. May relieve things for oh...... 3 hours?


Absolutely right. Even 100 basis points across the board at 9:30 AM wouldn't help. Bond ratings have been cut, more collateral is needed, banks won't lend money as generously as they have a couple years back. No government-sponsored free money "stimulus package" will work. Asian markets are down 5 percent again today!! This economy is toast.

I go to bed at 4 AM eastern time; when I wake up at noon I expect either violent rioting or bread lines.



I am getting up at 6:00 just so I can watch it all unfold. Then I can laugh in the face of my economics instructor at 12:00 who told us last week that we are not facing a recession. DUMB FUCK -- HOW THE HELL DID HE EVER GET A JOB
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby fireplaceguy » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 02:26:10

Here's the "rest of the story"

There are specialized financial insurers who back the CDO's, CMO's, hedge funds, etc., etc. that we've been reading about lately, and here's the recent market performance of the publicly traded ones:

ACA Capital Holdings Inc. (ACAH) has lost virtually all its value and may be out of business this week unless bailed out.

Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) has lost over 75% in value in the last 30 days, and just lost its AAA rating.

MBIA, Inc. (MBI) also lost over 75% in value in the last 30 days, and is also in danger of a downgraded rating

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) lost about 37% in value in the last 30 days.

Moneygram International, Inc. (MGI) dropped about 75% in the last 30 days.

RAM Holdings Ltd. (RAMR) fell about 80% in value in the last 30 days.

MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) has lost half it's value in the last 30 days.

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) dropped about 55% in value in the last 30 days.

The losses of the last 30 days come on the heels of significant losses last year, so this entire market sector is imploding before our eyes. Investors are bailing because they understand there's no way to cover the massive write-offs these insurers are contractually obligated to cover this year. The capital market is telling us what the media hasn't - that these insurers are technically insolvent! That's troubling because they're the last line of defense between us and a multi-trillion dollar global meltdown...

What we're seeing in the broader markets is the result, and a preview of what awaits if the cookie crumbles...
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby drgoodword » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 02:51:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fireplaceguy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'B')lack Tuesday 2008
That's the perfect title for this topic.

Although our markets were closed today, the Dow is down over 400 points in electronic trading. I think I'll stick around and watch the open on tv just out of morbid curiousity. Hope I'm wrong, but I suspect we'll test the post 9/11 market lows before this is over...

Does anyone else like gold at 1000 and silver at 20 this week?


Not this week. Too much gold and silver will be sold off to cover margin calls.

As for a surprise rate cut tomorrow morning, I'm sure the Fed is tempted. A full 100 bps would certainly result in an upswing, but it may only last an hour (remember Friday?). But even if it kept the market up for the whole day, it would probably be down again by Thursday, and the Fed's big gun would thereafter be seen as being full of blanks.

The craziest thing, as many here at PO have noted, is that the really bad economic news has just begun, and will get worse with every following month. ARMs resets still haven't peaked, and are set to do so later this year. Foreclosures will continue to rise. Bankruptcies will continue to rise. Unemployment will continue to rise. Consumer spending will continue to fall. Housing prices will continue to fall. Some banks will likely outright fail, along with a hedge fund or two (if we're lucky; many more if we're not). Credit will continue to be frozen. More credit cards will become maxed out.

There's a whole year of this kind of bad economic news monsoon left. If markets are this unstable now, what are they going to look like in July? In October? I've been an economic bear now for four years, and I've always believed the collapse would be quick, deep and long-lasting (bubble-related; I'm not even talking about the full-blown peak oil crisis down the road), but I'm surprised how things are turning out this week on the world's markets.
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby jboogy » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 03:46:52

I caught Cramer on CNBC talking about all the insurers going belly up, scary stuff. I watched the news tonight to see if anyone was talking about the other markets tanking and not nary a peep, but I don't subscribe to fox news or msnbc so maybe they said something, anderson cooper was all presidential candidates, ( big surprise ), local news zippo. Link TV had english language German news program " journal " and the markets were the top, big story. Nothin' in this country though, is this a great country or what?
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby gampy » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 03:56:55

The Canadian news channels were all over this.

TSX down 500+

Although I don't think Canada is as exposed as the US or Asia. At least in the short term.
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby Bas » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 04:16:00

update

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 8 percent in early afternoon trading Tuesday as global markets tumbled on fears that a U.S. economic slowdown will lead to a global recession.

Japan's Nikkei index plunged below 13,000 for the first time in more than two years, down 4.5% in afternoon trading.

South Korea's Korea Composite Stock Price Index fell 90.03 points, or 5.4 percent, to 1,592.63.

Australia's benchmark S&P index was down 6 percent.

The Singapore stock exchange was down 4.5 percent, and Taiwan's benchmark Taiex was down 6.6%.

Trading was halted in Indian markets Tuesday as shares plunged on opening, with the benchmark index falling 9.5 percent. Shares in India's Sensex fell nearly 11 percent -- a four-month low -- on Monday.



CNN

looks like India will also be the biggest loser today but then again, the Dow might have to play catchup having missed all the fun yesterday!
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby Zardoz » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 04:24:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '.')..then again, the Dow might have to play catchup having missed all the fun yesterday!

I've seen words to that effect in a couple of news stories. New York is now two days behind the global meltdown.

Any bets on how many times trading gets suspended tomorrow?
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby Bas » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 04:39:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '.')..then again, the Dow might have to play catchup having missed all the fun yesterday!

I've seen words to that effect in a couple of news stories. New York is now two days behind the global meltdown.

Any bets on how many times trading gets suspended tomorrow?


you mean today? possibly once if the losses go over 10% very fast, (this is going to be so "disappointing" if we only see a 5 % drop ; )

Also we haven't seen yet what the european markets will do, it's very possible they might hold up with only a percent or two in losses; we'll know more in an hour or so.
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Re: Black Tuesday 2008?

Postby deeciduous » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 04:51:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'I') caught Cramer on CNBC talking about all the insurers going belly up, scary stuff. I watched the news tonight to see if anyone was talking about the other markets tanking and not nary a peep, but I don't subscribe to fox news or msnbc so maybe they said something, anderson cooper was all presidential candidates, ( big surprise ), local news zippo. Link TV had english language German news program " journal " and the markets were the top, big story. Nothin' in this country though, is this a great country or what?


Is it possible the mercan newsmedia are really idiots?

If murdoch runs them all and he owns a lot of stock maybe he doesn't want a lot of people selling stock tomorrow...

Whatever,you can't cover up a sulphurous piffle too long.
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