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THE US Fossil Fuel Stockpiles Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby dust_farmer » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 08:03:28

EMR definietly falls into the high risk / reward catagory but in the long term I think those companys that have producing assets may be ones to buy.

Decent farm land is not going to get any cheaper as there has been some major changes in demand in the last few weeks as a big monster has jumped on to the scene in the last few weeks. A company called Glencore based in switzerland has started advertizing to lease land on the west coast and mid/upper north here in south australia and they want land. They are looking at 100,000 acres on the west coast as well as another 100,000 in the mid/upper north and that is just going to throw a solid floor under land prices. I also believe they are looking for land in other states as well.
Last edited by dust_farmer on Mon 21 Jan 2008, 23:13:01, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby solarpoweredlasers » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 22:44:46

I wrote a long reply last night but the bloody forum ate it.
Bit of a shitty day today, good time to buy some with solid fundamentals.. only real question is whether you can get them cheaper tomorrow or the next day ;)
Bleck.. lost a fair bit of profit but i'm long on most stuff so until I start losing actual money i'm not really worried. I bought more CVN today.. probably could get a better price tomorrow but not too worried. Their oil isn't going anywhere.
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby dust_farmer » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 23:32:01

thinking of buying some woodside or maybe some electisity generator company of some decription in the near future but I don't think there is any reason to rush as all the stock markets are going down at the moment and when they stop falling it's going to be a slow climb back up.
It's almost funny watching the sharemarket at the moment as I deal with sheep and cattle every day and the share market just looks like another bunch of herd animals at the moment. By that I mean passive leaders and active followers. everyone are watching every one else and following their lead, and no one thinking for them selves.
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby solarpoweredlasers » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 00:37:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dust_farmer', 't')hinking of buying some woodside or maybe some electisity generator company of some decription in the near future but I don't think there is any reason to rush as all the stock markets are going down at the moment and when they stop falling it's going to be a slow climb back up.
It's almost funny watching the sharemarket at the moment as I deal with sheep and cattle every day and the share market just looks like another bunch of herd animals at the moment. By that I mean passive leaders and active followers. everyone are watching every one else and following their lead, and no one thinking for them selves.


Yeah, no real need to buy today unless there is an ann imminent. Plenty of buying opportnity this week and next no doubt.
yes herd behaviour... "When a large group of people gets together the collective IQ drops below the IQ of a single individual"
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oil price still around $90

Unread postby alokin » Sat 09 Feb 2008, 01:09:42

Some analysts predicted a much lower price for crude with the sow down of the economy. But since month sth oil price is more or less stable around $90.
That must mean that we are declining yet.
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Re: oil price still around $90

Unread postby heroineworshipper » Sat 09 Feb 2008, 01:25:14

$90 oil is a recession. $150 oil would have been break even. These are dollars, not Euros.
People first, then things, then dollars.
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Re: oil price still around $90

Unread postby LoneSnark » Sat 09 Feb 2008, 02:40:59

A slow down does not mean much. To see what the actual new low is going to be we need an actual recession in America with 7+% unemployment.

Hell, just a slow down in China should be enough to draw a similar new low.
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Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby lexicon » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 17:59:24

Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends
March 14, 2008
editor@sirchartsalot.com

Cleaning up the mess that Mr Greenspan left behind was never going to be easy. Banks and brokers around the world face more than half-trillion dollars in write-offs as a consequence of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, which is spreading from the US property market and roiling global stock markets. It’s toppled the US economy into a recession and the tremors are also rattling Asian stock markets.

Roughly $7 trillion has been wiped from world stock markets since the beginning of the year amid fears of a severe US economic recession and financial institutions reporting more mega losses. “The market crisis will preoccupy us well into 2008,” he said German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck on Feb 15th. “The financial risks securitized by banks contained packaged explosives,” and he accused rating agencies of having a conflict of interest in the role they played in the process.

So far, the Bernanke Federal Reserve has pumped more than half-a-trillion dollars into the markets with open market operations and special emergency lending schemes, to help cushion the blow to the US economy and stock markets. However, there’s evidence that the Fed’s prescription for dealing with the sub-prime debt crisis, is actually making matters much worse, and leading to “Stagflation.”

As the Fed’s rate cuts and massive money injections filter through the financial system, it weighs heavily on the US dollar, and in turn, a weaker dollar inflates huge bubbles in the global commodities markets. Fund managers have already poured an estimated $200 billion into commodities across the board, as a hedge against the explosive growth of the world’s money supply, competitive currency devaluations, and the negative interest rates engineered by central banks.

more...

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/dor ... 31408.html
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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby joeltrout » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 19:41:07

The title is very misleading and makes people think peak oilers are wacko.

The stock markets being rattled is solely due to the subprime mortgage/credit issues. NOT global oil shocks.

Oil for the rest of the world isn't that expensive. I saw a chart on FastMoney that showed oil has followed the value of the euro against the dollar tick for tick since oil hit $85/bbl.

Oil is expensive for US consumers and overall supply/demand is tight but so far no shocks for the globe just the US.


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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby Valdemar » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 20:36:44

Because the US economy isn't important to the global economy, yes?
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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby heroineworshipper » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 22:23:17

Sort of like most of the money in the M3 figure has been getting shifted around & around between dot coms, real estate, & oil.
People first, then things, then dollars.
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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby DefiledEngine » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 02:25:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The stock markets being rattled is solely due to the subprime mortgage/credit issues. NOT global oil shocks.

Oil for the rest of the world isn't that expensive. I saw a chart on FastMoney that showed oil has followed the value of the euro against the dollar tick for tick since oil hit $85/bbl.


Surely, a rise of a several hundred percent in oil prices in just a few years should have an impact on the economy, no?
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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby joeltrout » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 02:35:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '
')
Surely, a rise of a several hundred percent in oil prices in just a few years should have an impact on the economy, no?


I believe it does but if the subprime/credit issues never happened then I think the stock markets would continue the course that they were taking back in aug & sept when oil prices were high also.

The subprime/credit issues is the reason the Fed is cutting interest rates which in turn weakens the dollar which in turn makes oil less expensive to the rest of the world even though oil is more expensive to the US.

Look at the times the foreign markets have tumbled over the last 5 months. It is due to news from the financial world. None of the drops have been due to oil. Right now oil is a small player compared to the US losing trillions of dollars in home value and wallstreet losing their shirts.

I do however believe with the lose of home equity and home value for the average american...fuel prices will considerably take what little extra income most americans have. Americans had a negative savings rate in 2005 but they could rely on the value of their house at that time to borrow money. But not now and not for a couple of years at the very least.

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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby joeltrout » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 02:43:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', 'B')ecause the US economy isn't important to the global economy, yes?


The ill effects of the US economy spilling over into the global economy has nothing to do with oil.

It all revolves around the subprime/credit issues and the Fed having to lower rates and the dollar dropping.

Those are the actions rattling the markets. Oil prices going up over $85 is a result of the Fed cutting rates and the foundation ($85 and below) is due to supply/demand, political turmoil, etc...

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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby GreyGhost » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 03:10:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'N')one of the drops have been due to oil. Right now oil is a small player compared to the US losing trillions of dollars in home value and wallstreet losing their shirts.


This is a major misunderstanding, that is seen in bankers, economists, investors, and traders on every forum I've seen. They think this is all about finance and economy.

The simple facts that are forgotten are:

Economic activity requires energy.
Therefore, economic growth requires energy growth.

The economy is sputtering during the last 6-12 months, after the longest boom ever. This happens at the same time as the growth in energy production is suddenly no longer growing. Put the two together and you have the perfect example of cause and effect. No energy in => no economic growth out.

More importantly the modern financial system is based on growth. If there is no growth, why invest? The whole things makes no sense anymore.
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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby KevO » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 05:42:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreyGhost', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'N')one of the drops have been due to oil. Right now oil is a small player compared to the US losing trillions of dollars in home value and wallstreet losing their shirts.


This is a major misunderstanding, that is seen in bankers, economists, investors, and traders on every forum I've seen. They think this is all about finance and economy.

The simple facts that are forgotten are:

Economic activity requires energy.
Therefore, economic growth requires energy growth.

The economy is sputtering during the last 6-12 months, after the longest boom ever. This happens at the same time as the growth in energy production is suddenly no longer growing. Put the two together and you have the perfect example of cause and effect. No energy in => no economic growth out.

More importantly the modern financial system is based on growth. If there is no growth, why invest? The whole things makes no sense anymore.


I agree. It's OIl going from $35 to $80 in 2 years that actually caused as in was the undercurrent/crumbling foundation of the sub prime crisis. We can't imagine what's coming. And all this as Saudi starts to run out :shock:
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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby katkinkate » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 08:56:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '.')....

I agree. It's OIl going from $35 to $80 in 2 years that actually caused as in was the undercurrent/crumbling foundation of the sub prime crisis. We can't imagine what's coming. And all this as Saudi starts to run out :shock:


Nobody's running out yet.
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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby centralstump » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 09:17:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lexicon', 'F')und managers have already poured an estimated $200 billion into commodities across the board, as a hedge against the explosive growth of the world’s money supply


This statement bothers me. Isn't the subprime mortgage problem basically a comeplete collapse of the money supply? Every mortgage that defaults is "money" that doesn't exist anymore. Every bank that is scired to loan money is a cummulative drop in the supply of money. Aren't moves by Bernake, however silly, just propping up a money supply that is shrinking like my winkie in January?

Maybe I'm confused.
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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby joeltrout » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 12:38:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '
')
I agree. It's OIl going from $35 to $80 in 2 years that actually caused as in was the undercurrent/crumbling foundation of the sub prime crisis. We can't imagine what's coming. And all this as Saudi starts to run out :shock:


So you don't think the fact that millions of people borrowed more money then they could pay back is a problem?

So you don' think that Adjustable Rate Mortgages raising the interest rate to an unaffordable rate for homeowners is a problem?

So you don't think that homeowners not being able to refinance (due to lose of home value or stricter requirements) to a lower rate is a problem?

This is where I think you have your head in the sand and WANT to blame everything on raising oil prices/peak oil.

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Re: Global "Oil Shock" Rattles World Stock markets

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 12:45:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heroineworshipper', 'S')ort of like most of the money in the M3 figure has been getting shifted around & around between dot coms, real estate, & oil.


Wait a second, I thought we got rid of M3 a while back, sort of Orwell/1984-style.

We're not supposed to talk about M3 anymore.
:)
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