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THE Warren Buffett Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby pup55 » Sun 20 Jan 2008, 20:01:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is not impossible, that there may be persons disposed to look with a jealous eye on the introduction of foreign capital, as if it were an instrument to deprive our own citizens of the profits of our own industry; but perhaps there never could be a more unreasonable jealousy. Instead of being viewed as a rival, it ought to be considered as a most valuable auxiliary, conducing to put into motion a greater quantity of productive labor, and a greater portion of useful enterprise than could exist without it."


Hamilton

This from the jerk whose picture is on the $10. He also favored running up huge deficits, and enlarging the size of the central government for the same reason.

I think Jefferson, whose picture is on the nickel and the $2 bill, was dead against it. However, he knew a bargain when he saw it, and decided to run up the debt to buy the Louisiana Purchase.

This is an old argument.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby Jason_h » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 00:05:46

People have complained about foreign investment for a while. I remember back in the 80's with the Japanese investments everyone was running around screaming that we were "selling the country." Instead, people should recognize that the foreign investment is indicative of the strength of the US economy and the fact that these countries know that they can earn a greater return in the US economy than in their own countries.

In addition, while people are focusing on these cash infusions in the financial companies, you need to look at the foreign inflows in comparison to the overall economy. Between Q3 2006 and Q3 2007, the US economy grew by over $700 billion. The vast majority of that growth was due to domestic sources, not foreign capital inflows.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 02:17:25

How much did the federal debt grow over the same amount of time?

This massive debt is going to destroy what we think of as the United States.

I'm afraid to guess what will replace it.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 02:37:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'H')ow much did the federal debt grow over the same amount of time?

This massive debt is going to destroy what we think of as the United States.

I'm afraid to guess what will replace it.


Image

It's bad but not hopeless.

Moreover, the debt is in our own currency so it will NOT be like Argentina.

Even more important, lots of that debt is being financed cheaply so interest payments as a % of GDP are much lower than in the 1980s.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 14:38:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')It's bad but not hopeless.

Moreover, the debt is in our own currency so it will NOT be like Argentina.

Even more important, lots of that debt is being financed cheaply so interest payments as a % of GDP are much lower than in the 1980s.


Last time there was sky high debt the US had just "won" a world war and was the equivalent of 50% of the global economy, wages and prosperity were rising on a broad based social level Oh... and there was lots of high quality oil and cheap energy to found.

I think it is pretty hopeless.

Mind you under Bill Clinton the US did reign in some debt by the looks of that chart.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 21 Jan 2008, 16:38:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '
')I think it is pretty hopeless.

Mind you under Bill Clinton the US did reign in some debt by the looks of that chart.


Look again, the low point is decidedly the Ford and Carter administrations, not the Clinton debacle.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby greenworm » Thu 14 Feb 2008, 19:56:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')B is a shark


Not only that but his name is Warring Buffett, who bought gold after 911? Right. Why would he travel with an arsenal if he was on the up and up, do you really think this man carries his billions with him? :lol:

Got blue pill? I sure could use it, I want to go back to being a sheep, comatose in front of the tv with barely a synapse firing. Ah, the good ol daze.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby KaiserCesar06 » Thu 14 Feb 2008, 22:33:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '
')Mind you under Bill Clinton the US did reign in some debt by the looks of that chart.


Also mind you that the chart is portraying debt as a percentage of gdp. During the 90's we had some high growth rates without a recession, which tends to also cause a budget surplus. Even without using the extra cash on hand to pay down the debt, the line on that graph is going to go down during that time period.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 19:08:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'L')ol....amusing logic.
You Americans develop a ravenous appetite for consumption, you emgorge yourselves into national bankruptcy and then blame those you go with begging bowls to for bailing you out!
Now you have reached unprecedented depths of delusion as a nation!
You have to remember you are talking to two different audiences here. On one side you have the American mortgaging and latter selling his assets so he can live like there is not tomorrow. One the other side, you have the American who can see this process for what it is and is trying to sound the alarm. Don't confuse the two. I would imagine most Americans on this board would fall into the latter category.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 23:09:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', ' ')A family member close to me said Mao screwed up China. I thought true he didn't do it any favors but it's not like China was a happy happy capitalist country and then Mao showed up



Mao killed over a 100 million Chinese through totalitarian repression and the famines created by his ill-fated attempts to have the Chinese government seize and operate all agriculture in China.

Is Mao's responsiblity for the most deaths in human history what you meant by him "not doing any favors" for China? :)
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 18 Feb 2008, 06:49:50

I find it interesting that the debt was lowest during the stagflation of the 1970s.
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Re: Interesting perspective from Warren Buffett on U.S> f

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 18 Feb 2008, 08:07:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I') find it interesting that the debt was lowest during the stagflation of the 1970s.


That's because credit was VERY hard to get and expensive to use. 20% plus down mortgages were common, applying for a Credit Card took a serious credit check and was not automatic as it is today, you had to prove you were a good risk! So many things were different in reguards to how you could spend credit that it really was a different economy from what we have today.
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Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Anybody See Warren Buffet on CNBC?

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 18:37:27

Predicts:
1. Ethanol will be a disappointment

2. Dollar weakness is a long term problem

3. Oil won't be cheap any time soon

4. Food production will be a problem going forward

I hate to say this, but it almost seemed to me like talking about these things made him glad that he was old. He made these observations without any suggestion of a solution. Buffet should get an honorary doomer ribbon or something.
:)
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Re: Anybody See Warren Buffet on CNBC?

Unread postby idiom » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 18:41:13

Dude decided to give all his money to Bill Gates.

Must be a seriously depressed Doomer.
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Re: Anybody See Warren Buffet on CNBC?

Unread postby joeltrout » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 19:23:27

In the morning guest appearance he also said he "believes we are in a recession".

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Re: Anybody See Warren Buffet on CNBC?

Unread postby greenworm » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 20:29:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ude decided to give all his money to Bill Gates.

Warring Buffett and Build Gates? I hate to break it to you, but that was probably planned a long time ago based on a creepy eugenics tree.
That's nothing. These clowns got together to build the doomsday vault. Makes you wonder why. If it don't, then your not paying attention. :lol:
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Re: Anybody See Warren Buffet on CNBC?

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 20:38:30

So the translation is:

1. Get a good Biicycle!

2. Buy Only GOLD!!

3. Get Another Bicycle!!!

4. Start a Garden. Grow your own food!!
Last edited by SILENTTODD on Tue 04 Mar 2008, 21:23:53, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Anybody See Warren Buffet on CNBC?

Unread postby davep » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 20:46:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'S')o translation is:
1. Get a good bicycle!
2. Buy Only GOLD!!
3. Get Another Bicycle!!!
4. Start a Garden. Grow your own food!!

And take your pick from commodities options, despite what people are saying (but make it three or more years hence if possible).
What we think, we become.
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Re: Anybody See Warren Buffet on CNBC?

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 21:44:35

On the special last night, he actually did everything except quote Simmons and utter the phrase PO:
Energy consumption growing with population
Current fields in decline
Limited ability of new discoveries to keep up with declines and supply growth.
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Re: Anybody See Warren Buffet on CNBC?

Unread postby centralstump » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 10:39:35

He also said, "My children will have a better life than me."

He is not a doomer.

He does understand the problems before us. He made some changes to his portfolio about the turn of the century. While being laughed at by all the super smart boys on wall street, he quietly dropped retail and increased his holding in Oil, Natural Gas, local utilities, and Trains.

His increase in Insurance holdings is the one that doesn't gel. Someone will have to explain that one to me.
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