[roccman]

So for years now we have heard mad max vs gentle adaptation slide down the right side of hubbert's peak. Heck there might even be an existing poll here - (hey Pops a little help if there is).

I have two young children - so I would like no more than a slow adaptation slide; however I have planned for a bone crushing thud.

What say you - is Laura up for the fight?

For those who need definitions:

The Bone Crusher can be defined as a catalyst that happens very fast - like a 911 event - that causes widespread panic...martial law will be rolled out - think LA Riots or Katrina. The outcome is "The Road" by McCormac.

Laura Ingalls can defined as a steady powering down of resource and energy use to a point where an equilibrium is reached. There is enough food and water to go around - little waste - and a collective desire for people to share and pull on the rope at the same time. The outcome is small communities of people employing permaculture intensively, trade emerges...think Little House on the Prairie.

[jasonraymondson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'S')o for years now we have heard mad max vs gentle adaptation slide down the right side of hubbert's peak. Heck there might even be an existing poll here - (hey Pops a little help if there is).

I have two young children - so I would like no more than a slow adaptation slide; however I have planned for a bone crushing thud.

What say you - is Laura up for the fight?

For those who need definitions:

The Bone Crusher can be defined as a catalyst that happens very fast - like a 911 event - that causes widespread panic...martial law will be rolled out - think LA Riots or Katrina. The outcome is "The Road" by McCormac.

Laura Ingalls can defined as a steady powering down of resource and energy use to a point where an equilibrium is reached. There is enough food and water to go around - little waste - and a collective desire for people to share and pull on the rope at the same time. The outcome is small communities of people employing permaculture intensively, trade emerges...think Little House on the Prairie.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'h')ey Pops a little help if there is...

[AirlinePilot]

Ok, I voted for the Bone crusher.

Truth is stranger than fiction.

One side of me is saying yes problems are coming and I tend to lean heavily to what Pops is saying. Its somewhere in the middle. If you had put that in the poll I probably might have voted for it.

But then the reality side of me gets hold and says:

SNAP OUT OF IT!

Someone is going to block the straits of Hormuz with a nuclear debris pile within the next few years. Or one of our cities is going to melt in a flash and mushroom cloud, etc. etc.

Mankind is too unpredictable for sweet little Laura.

So I picked the Earth Shattering Kaboom.

[dinopello]

Depends on what your local community is like. Both in terms of what resources you have access to (food, water, ports, climate mitigation etc) but even more importantly what your social and government structures are like. Is there a high level of individual involvement in government at the local level, are there accepted and mature communication and community decision making mechanisms at the local level, do people trust their local leadership (usually only true if the previous are true), etc.

If none of these are the case in your local area then I think there is a high likliehood of turmoil and an every man for himself type of panic leading to violence in the event of even relatively small disruptions. If your community is very strong in these areas there is a high likliehood that it can weather fairly large challenges.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'I')f your community is very strong in these areas there is a high likliehood that it can weather fairly large challenges.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'I')f your community is very strong in these areas there is a high likliehood that it can weather fairly large challenges.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'E')ven with the friendliest of neighbors there arises issues on which they disagree, disputes over proper courses of actions etc. ...

[PrairieMule]

Well to some degree both, I think the majority will get the bone crusher.

Those that have remote land have better odds for a powerdown.

[Ferretlover]

I still think it will vary, depending on what happens and where...
Yesterday morning, here, it was -21 degrees and with the windchill, -35 degrees. I think a great many of our problems with the zombie hordes will subside in the winter months.
But, the elderly, those with large numbers of small children, the seriously ill, the unprepared--it is going to hit them first and hardest.
Barring one or more nuclear incidents, there are too many variables to give just one outcome an overriding predictability, which is why we try to understand all the possible outcomes of the different situations.
Of course, I could be wrong....

[Nicholai]

It's not going to be the same from place to place. China will be the most organized when push comes to shove. They're not multicultural, they have one dominant dialect and are VERY accustom to dictatorial rule and obedience. The population question and pollution problems do put them in an awkward position, but these are people who are highly motivated, highly obedient, and completely content with taking orders.

America and Canada are different stories. I see places like the maritimes doing quite well. They've lived fairly locally for the past 300 years and, if you've ever met someone from Newfoundland or Cape Breton, they're the friendliest, most delightful people in the world. They still retain their local fishing economy and they've done so for centuries.

Places like Toronto or Vancouver won't be the same. Highly condensed population with linguistic, racial, religious and economic differences. I mean, it's just asking for trouble. Jobs and consumerism are the only things keeping these people together.

Just like during the Great Depression, all countries and regions faired differently. Places with a high population density will likely be given food rations and strong government intervention, giving the impression that these are the places to be. I'm highly skeptical.

I've found a farming community that relies on permaculture for survival and grows their own food. The area has a low population density and a great source of unpolluted fresh water. Lots of farmland, lots of wood and a long ways from any tank or military installation. These will be the places to be.

I pity Bangladesh, Japan, Vancouver, Toronto, New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Hong Kong and the like.

Some areas will have a slow crash, otherwise will break into chaos quite quickly. It will vary from region to region.

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'I')t's not going to be the same from place to place. China will be the most organized when push comes to shove. They're not multicultural, they have one dominant dialect and are VERY accustom to dictatorial rule and obedience. The population question and pollution problems do put them in an awkward position, but these are people who are highly motivated, highly obedient, and completely content with taking orders.

[WildRose]

I couldn't pick one or the other, rocc. The example you gave for the Bone Crusher could happen, and could cause a marital law scenario, etc., but I guess I still think there's a lower probability of something like that happening soon. Perhaps further down the road, when the US has significantly less oil available and is struggling for energy resources, a sudden event like that would be more likely. But, I suppose anything is possible.

That said, the Laura Ingalls option seems likely in areas with lower population like small towns, farming communities, areas with lots of water, adequate rainfall, not too harsh a climate. I'm wondering how changes in the economy will play out, particularly in the US and Canada. If the economic changes were quick and severe, I would predict a lot of unrest, especially in large cities. I imagine millions of people accustomed to our NA way of life, which is quite luxurious, suddenly having to adjust their lifestyle downward, how many notches? High unemployment would make a lot of really unhappy campers. I'm hoping for gradually less of everything, so that people have time to adjust and there may be more room for cooperation and positive change, even in the cities. I think most of us are happy to help our neighbors and will do so as long as we're able, but I dread any scenario that would force us to fend only for ourselves.