[mkwin]

My background is in commercial real estate and I think it could possibly be a good investment post-peak. There will, however, be an almighty crash in values before then. Why don't you realise your gain and reinvest the money in the usual kind of things until peak oil happens then buy loads of real estate at rock bottom prices?

I plan to buy land and warehouses around railway stations and other transport nodes and residential if there is a post-peak property crash. By this time the yields will be far more attractive than they are now and if inflation becomes a problem rising rents can offset it to a certain extent if you have prime property. It will also be excellent in a deflationary problem, as the relative value of the income stream will be constantly increasing.

So yes, I understand where you are coming from but holding or buying real estate at the top of one of the world most excessive bull markets might not be the best course of action.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'M')y background is in commercial real estate and I think it could possibly be a good investment post-peak. There will, however, be an almighty crash in values before then. Why don't you realise your gain and reinvest the money in the usual kind of things until peak oil happens then buy loads of real estate at rock bottom prices?

I plan to buy land and warehouses around railway stations and other transport nodes and residential if there is a post-peak property crash. By this time the yields will be far more attractive than they are now and if inflation becomes a problem rising rents can offset it to a certain extent if you have prime property. It will also be excellent in a deflationary problem, as the relative value of the income stream will be constantly increasing.

So yes, I understand where you are coming from but holding or buying real estate at the top of one of the world most excessive bull markets might not be the best course of action.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.')..
Resource nationalization is a fact of life in the oil business.
...

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.')..
Resource nationalization is a fact of life in the oil business.
...

[seahorse]

Freeze interest rates? Who will buy our bonds?

[drew]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'F')reeze interest rates? Who will buy our bonds?

[drew]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'S')o yes, I understand where you are coming from but holding or buying real estate at the top of one of the world most excessive bull markets might not be the best course of action.

[seahorse]

Drew,

I don't know. I would be careful, but I tend to be overly cautious. There is a good article out today that says China and the world cannot decouple from the slow down in the US. So, I can't help but think the slowdown here will affect you up there.

Yahoo News

[drew]

Thanks Seahorse. Just needed to have someone echo my thoughts I guess.

As for the property, it always blows me away when I watch those house flipping shows and the boneheads don't seem to get the level of risk they are taking on. In my case I could afford the venture only by flipping or renting out. I simply dont earn enough to do anything else.

As for the structure of the house (that I know of) the risks/costs are excessive water damage from a long leaking roof (crappily reshingled by sons last year), a complete rework/gut of the electrical, possible (likely) leaky foundation which may require weeping tile/sump, completely new kitchen and baths.

This is my brief assessment and I actually know what I'm doing to a limited extent. These risks combined with the potential of a huge downturn are what I'd be gambling with.

Drew

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'T')hanks Seahorse. Just needed to have someone echo my thoughts I guess.

As for the property, it always blows me away when I watch those house flipping shows and the boneheads don't seem to get the level of risk they are taking on. In my case I could afford the venture only by flipping or renting out. I simply dont earn enough to do anything else.

As for the structure of the house (that I know of) the risks/costs are excessive water damage from a long leaking roof (crappily reshingled by sons last year), a complete rework/gut of the electrical, possible (likely) leaky foundation which may require weeping tile/sump, completely new kitchen and baths.

This is my brief assessment and I actually know what I'm doing to a limited extent. These risks combined with the potential of a huge downturn are what I'd be gambling with.

Drew

[drew]

Hey Mr Bill, what are you doing here, it's sunday! Or are you at work?

Thanks for the concern....

Dont worry though, about me paying too much, that's not my nature.

I wouldn't buy it for any more than 150. My property is worth 3 and half as a guideline. I am on 3/4 of an acre, the property in question is about 9/10ths the size. Way cheaper structure though; wood maybe 1200 sq feet vs my 1700 all brick home. The property across the road has no lawn (maybe 10~15 feet of land around it) and sold for 200 k last year. The lot alone next door is worth 100k.

The risks are very very real even assessing the above. My minimum acceptable gain would be a purchase at 150, 50 k in reno costs and a resale for 250. Seriously, I should send you a photo, the place is a dump.

Drew

[threadbear]

Cautious by nature, wins in the end, Drew. Stay cautious--as a matter of fact, try cautious with a touch of paranoia!

[drew]

Oh I've had the paranoia for a while now. That's psychedelics for ya.

thanks for the caution!

Drew

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', '.').Thoughts on flipping/renting it out anyone? There are zero signs of a slowdown in our housing market (yet).

[drew]

thanks Zardoz, I looked!

Yikes!

Damn, I couldn't time the passing of my neighbour right either......


Drew

[eastbay]

Zardoz... emulation is maybe the highest compliment. I just posted that link last night on the housing bubble thread...

It does make for some entertaining reading, doesn't it? It's a story repeated all over California... and across much of the nation.

[MrBill]

Not sure what a LIRA is? An RRSP? But at this point in the cycle with some rough waters ahead of us, I would be looking at low-cost tracker funds spread across different asset classes and bonds for capital preservation. Not very sexy, but defensive. More a Granny than an Elly May! ; - )