[solarpoweredlasers]

Ok.. so it was after a few drinks at a poker game and I got into a bit of a light argument with my father who's fairly into cars. He was basically scoffing at the idea of not being able to drive his high powered cars/trucks in ten years. To a point thats fair. He's not poor (not rich either though, upper middle i'd say), and demand destruction, recession, more fuel efficient engines etc might have given him some breathing room, but I persisted.. and in the spirit of poker.. (I can't actually remember who suggested it..) but I bet him $1000 he won't be driving a V8 in 2018 as his daily run around car... to the shops.. long distance etc. (Just to ensure he couldn't claim a sunday drive as "still driving one")

so.. was it a safe or stupid bet?

p.s. You can tell I'm not an uber doomer, I don't think society will have contracted to the point of citizens in rich countries not driving cars in ten years.. I think you will have a fair few of your prius/ev type things on the road at the very least even if there might be 100 million less guzzlers on the road by then..

p.p.s. I can always hope for hyperinflation to turn $1000 into a beer coaster.

[Revi]

Pretty good bet I'd say. We'll be lucky if we're driving anything in the next decade. How much have gas prices gone up in the past decade? That's just the beginning. I think that the middle class will be walking, biking and taking the bus. The poor will just be walking and the rich will be driving whatever they want.

Right now around here rich kids are burning up $50 a day in gas on their snowmobiles while old men gather cans with a bicycle.

[dinopello]

It's a great bet! You and your Dad will get a big laugh at it in 2018 when you are picking fleas off the dog for dinner.


Ha, I don't believe that, but I do think you have a very good chance with this bet. I would concede to him if everyone was driving around in flying gas-turbine powered cars (not a V-8, but...)

[seldom_seen]

I agree Revi.

Except maybe the part about the rich driving whatever they want. If most everyone besides the rich are displaced from their cars. I think we will have a very angry and volatile group of former drivers.

To the point that when they see a rich person driving they may become even angrier...throwing rocks...firing bullets...slashing tires, creating roadblocks. Driving could possibly become a very dangerous pursuit for those with the means to continue driving.

We also won't have the money to keep up the road system without all the vehicle taxes, fees, tolls and such. So even if the rich can still afford to drive, they may not have a road system to drive on.

Throw in a few severe storms, hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes and large chunks of the interstate highway system could be taken out without the means to repair them.

Here in the PNW we have an extensive network of logging roads all over western Washington and Oregon. The severe storms we've had over the past few years have been washing out many of these backcountry roads and bridges, and they aren't getting repaired.

[TheTurtle]

I think you made a very good bet. Except that I doubt your father will have $1000 of disposable income with which to pay off.

[solarpoweredlasers]

- Personally if the **** doesn't htf, I'm holding out at least for government regulations banning gas guzzlers - CAFE standards and the like can only be put off by the car industry for so long.. although thats just for new cars...

There's a chance he could claim a hollow victory if he gets hold of the v8 equivalent of a prius, but thats against the spirit of the argument and the stipulation of driving a "v8" and the inherent gas usage as a daily car rather than electricity around town and gas for longer trips.

I'll agree that we probably won't have the inflation adjusted equivalent of $1000 for something as frivolous as a bet handy around then. Although I am trying to promote peak oil invesments within the family. I don't even think I've got the time I need to get on top of things like the mortgage.. ( I'm hoping for 3-5 years of preperation)

[solarpoweredlasers]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'I')t's a great bet! You and your Dad will get a big laugh at it in 2018 when you are picking fleas off the dog for dinner.


Ha, I don't believe that, but I do think you have a very good chance with this bet. I would concede to him if everyone was driving around in flying gas-turbine powered cars (not a V-8, but...)

[peaker_2005]

The only way in which it may be a foolish bet is that if you're wrong, you won't see any money. If you're right you likely won't either because he probably won't have $1,000 (or if he does it'll be worth the equivalent of 1c).

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheTurtle', 'I') think you made a very good bet. Except that I doubt your father will have $1000 of disposable income with which to pay off.

[jasonraymondson]

I was going to say... what will 1000 actually be worth in 2018? Will it buy a bag of ramen?

[peaker_2005]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'I') was going to say... what will 1000 actually be worth in 2018? Will it buy a bag of ramen?