[PeakOiler]

It's called the Cassandra Syndrome

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n Greek mythology, Cassandra (Greek: Κασσάνδρα "she who entangles men") (also known as Alexandra) was a daughter of King Priam and Queen Hecuba of Troy whose beauty caused Apollo to grant her the gift of prophecy (or, more correctly, prescience). However, when she did not return his love, Apollo placed a curse on her so that no one would ever believe her predictions.
...
While Cassandra foresaw the fall and destruction of the city of Troy (she warned the Trojans about the Trojan Horse, the death of Agamemnon, and her own demise), she was unable to do anything to forestall these tragedies. Her family believed she was mad, and according to some versions, kept her locked up. In versions where she was incarcerated, this was typically portrayed as driving her truly insane, although in versions where she was not, she is usually viewed as remaining simply misunderstood.

[TheTurtle]

I split threadbear's and JPL's discussion of shamanism off into its own thread in the Psychology forum. Please continue that discussion there and keep this thread focussed on the OP's question.

Thanks.

[patience]

My best success in convincing people to look into PO has been offering it as an opportunity to business people. I've suggested that our farmer customers lokk at producing their own soy-diesel. And everyone likes to save money, so conservation efforts go down well in that way.

Any approach that offers empowering solutions works better than one only inspiring fear, which leads to feelings of helplessness. No one wants to be a victim, but craftiness sells well!

[namenick]

newfie- Thanks for that from Diamond. He's always worth reading and it sort of answers the question. Sort of because China can raise their standard of living considerably without becoming consumers to the scale that we are in Canada and the US.

Diamond says: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or example, per capita oil consumption in Western Europe is about half of ours, yet Western Europe’s standard of living is higher by any reasonable criterion, including life expectancy, health, infant mortality, access to medical care, financial security after retirement, vacation time, quality of public schools and support for the arts.

[Pixie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('namenick', '
')Has anyone done any work on determinging how much the top 1 billion consumes for instance?

[namenick]

Thanks for your attempt Pixie but your charts seem to be taking the wrong approach considering that they mention China and China has over 1 billion people to start with. A totally different approach to making the estimate is required where we looked at the top billion consumers and tried to find out how much oil they use. It would be hard to do but I'm comfortable in just assuming that the top billion would consume a pretty high per centage.

The point has been made pretty well by Diamond.

[Pixie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('namenick', 'T')hanks for your attempt Pixie but your charts seem to be taking the wrong approach considering that they mention China and China has over 1 billion people to start with. A totally different approach to making the estimate is required where we looked at the top billion consumers and tried to find out how much oil they use. It would be hard to do but I'm comfortable in just assuming that the top billion would consume a pretty high per centage.

The point has been made pretty well by Diamond.

[Ardalla]

I had some success last week talking to a guy at work about PO. I explained about conventional and unconvental oil and the aprox date of their max world production. I then mentioned NGL and how that will increase until around 2011.

I then explained that we are losing 6-8 mbd/year from depletion of existing fields, but only adding 2-3 in new production. The reason we are not in a crisis already is NGL is keeping us relatively stable at present. That cannot continue because NGL is usually the tail-end production of any existing field and will begin to decline shortly.

[namenick]

Pixie- I didn't say your lists mentioned China, I said your charts did.

I don't see any need to start a new thread every time there is a small deviation from the topic. All discussions do that as you will notice.

[ki11ercane]

I have had bad luck in trying to explain it. so far:

1. Oil is renewable and they will find more of it in places it has been depleted if they go back and check.

2. When THSTF I will simply jump off a building.

3. God will save us when He drops the population back down to 500,000,000 after The Rapture and we'll all be ok (well, the 500,000,000 left of the 6.5 billion here).

Seriously, no joke.

I truly believe now as the first post indicates, you'll be #1 Cool Guy when everyone "realizes" after it's too late that you have prepared which as I have said previously I believe is more of a danger to you than not. If you're preparing for yourself and family, 100 other "new friends" will quickly decimate your years of preparation and then your screwed.

I truly believe when it's "go time" maybe only 1% of the total world population will be prepared for whatever the future holds for itself for society and how it will look "tomorrow." Maybe rational thinking on a global scale will up that to 2%, but mass media and society's desire to deny a reality we have never considered in our lifetime or even in the lifetime of our parents/grandparents will probably wipe that extra 1% out.

Sorry to say but we're surrounded already.

[patience]

Break through!

Explaining what people can do to help solve their immediate problems has worked for me. I advised one young fellow that gas prices were headed straight up, that trade-in values of guzzler vehicles would drop, and that we were facing a serious economic problem, so position yourself accordingly. I pointed out that housing was going down, which would affect his mfrg job in woodworking.

He listened, having already felt the pinch of higher consumer prices, he soon traded off his new truck for an efficient car, and his wife's car for an older one they could pay off. He's reduced his debt level quite a bit. Then, he came by one day to tell me his company had just lost a contract that was 20% of their business, plus a cash default, when that customer went bankrupt due to slowing home sales. He was a bit pale that day.

I have established credibility with him now. Maybe it helped being an old guy that he more or less believed anyway, a sort of "elder" position for me. Dunno, but having made a couple good calls, did it. Now I can talk about the rest of my thesis. It helps that this guy is very bright, and feels heavy responsibility for his family.

At this point, my concern is going too fast, and putting him on emotional overload. I think we must , most importantly, offer solutions people can grasp easily before dumping too much in their lap.

[namenick]

ki11ercane- Would it be wrong to assume that people such as yourself would prefer to either jump off of tall buildings or turn to god for help, as opposed to finding other solutions for the problem of PO and diminishing supply?

Or to put it another way, is god going to come to the rescue before the majority have to change from driving SUV's to electric mopeds? Is it even possible to get to work 30 miles away from home on a moped and then get home again after a hard day at work?

Wouldn't that be maddening! The Chinese people already do it and they don't get mad.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'M')y best success in convincing people to look into PO has been offering it as an opportunity to business people. I've suggested that our farmer customers lokk at producing their own soy-diesel. And everyone likes to save money, so conservation efforts go down well in that way.

Any approach that offers empowering solutions works better than one only inspiring fear, which leads to feelings of helplessness. No one wants to be a victim, but craftiness sells well!

[ki11ercane]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('namenick', 'k')i11ercane- Would it be wrong to assume that people such as yourself would prefer to either jump off of tall buildings or turn to god for help, as opposed to finding other solutions for the problem of PO and diminishing supply?

The people I mentioned in my list were either close friends or business associates. One of them was a 20 something buried in mass consumerism, and the other was a Mennonite who as part of his belief structure believes that the planet is 6000 years old and oil is a gift from God and the reason why it is depleting is because we are sinners.

The 3rd was my father, convinced that Peak Oil is a conspiracy and Oil is a renewable resource, not non-renewable.

Or to put it another way, is god going to come to the rescue before the majority have to change from driving SUV's to electric mopeds?

Absolutely not!

Is it even possible to get to work 30 miles away from home on a moped and then get home again after a hard day at work?

Absolutely!

Wouldn't that be maddening! The Chinese people already do it and they don't get mad.

[namenick]

George Bush doesn't believe in global warming or PO and neither does Canada's Stephen Harper. They both pretend that they do but they're just treading water in the expectation that both problems will go away. For that reason I think that any attempt to break through will be expending more energy than it will be saving. Perhaps kidnapping the both of them and putting them in a cage in a zoo would be a better project.

But on a less serious and lighter side, until people start feeling the crunch by being denied what they have in abundance there is little hope IMO of breaking through. Who has even come close to that yet as even gasoline for our cars is still as good a deal as it was back in the 60's? I paid 50 cents a gallon in the early 60's and probably made about $4000-$5000 a year. Now I pay about $5.00 a gallon and make way more than ten times what I made in the 60's.

[skyemoor]

Whenever I show someone "A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash", it never fails to make to life-changing impression. Getting them to watch it may be tricky, but now all you simply have to say is "this movie from last year that predicted the current high oil prices has more to say about future pricing trends. Everyone I've loaned it to found it extremely interesting".

If you can't get them to the TV, then have them watch the Robert Hirsch interview, accessing the Hirsch bio page first.

[Shadizar]

I have had no luck in informing friends or family. In college I made a presentation on peak oil. All I got was blank stares. My family has been less than enthusiastic.

I've decided to pursue alternative energy as a career. I have a degree and I am "educated."

I am going with the installation angle however, it seems to me the most lucrative and most fun.

My family and friends think I've lost my mind. Perhaps they are right. I don't think so. I've lost any hope of them understanding me or peak oil. There is no point.

-Shadizar

P.S. It sounds bad, but its just the way it is.

[Revi]

Shadizar, I think you are on the right path. Alternative energy installation will have a bright future, whereas hooking yourself the the fossil fuel behemoth is a sure loser.

I have tried to make my family aware of peak oil, but they don't want to hear any of it. They told me to be quiet and my wife even has told me not to talk about it. My colleagues don't want to hear anything about it. Meanwhile we have installed solar hot water, backup pv lights and a woodstove. We got a woodlot from which we cut the wood that heats our house, and we make maple syrup every spring.

The economy is tanking around here. I don't even tell anyone about peak oil any more. It's too late. If I did, I'd tell them:

It's here.

The wolf is at the door.

[Newfie]

Shadizar and Revi,

I hate to be a wet blanket but, geeze, listen to yourselves.

First you bemoan that you can not convince anyone of PO.

Next you plan on selling them stuff.

This is sort of like setting up a tailor shop in a nudist colony.

If you can't convince them of PO then how in the world are you going to convince them to buy PO related products?

Look, 30 years ago I got into mass transit because I was sure, positive, convinced that after the gas crunch people would see the light and conserve oil and not let OPEC run our country. I have made a living, a good living at it but it is still a struggling industry. I am filled with shock and awe at the amount of denial we have and the emotional momentum in our system.

There is little rational explanation for the way humans act, humans are much more emotional than we like to think.

So, go easy on the plans. I commend your motives and ambition. I am concerned that you will be disappointed.

Best of luck.