[mattduke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'H')m, a true inflationary depression would be weird - "consumers" (we're not citizens any more) keeping their wallets in their pockets as long as possible...

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'P')uplava is a gold bug. He's just talking his book. Good luck to him but gold will peak soon then drop like a stone over the next two years....

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'P')uplava is a gold bug. He's just talking his book. Good luck to him but gold will peak soon then drop like a stone over the next two years....

[MC2]

You might want to do that. Don't toss it after two months, in case it's more like six.

Gold bugs, lol, worse than carpet lice.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'Y')ou might want to do that. Don't toss it after two months, in case it's more like six.

Gold bugs, lol, worse than carpet lice.

[MC2]

"Sold" to you.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', '"')Sold" to you.

[MC2]

I've bookmarked the thread. Inflationists are going to be in for a rude surprise.
Commodities don't do well in depressions, folks....

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'I')'ve bookmarked the thread. Inflationists are going to be in for a rude surprise.
Commodities don't do well in depressions, folks....

[MC2]

Karl doesn't "get" Peak Oil. That's OK. He gets commodities. Listen, Gold was up today, mostly on the false rumor of a surprise Fed cut that made the waves.... Cut may happen yet. But the deal with Gold is, what goes up must come down. It's primarily a play on global insecurities and potential disruptions. There are better trades. If one is going to play that route, better have a fast trigger finger on that sell button when the time comes, because it can overnight down 20 per cent, no problem.
I think there are better trades out there, but if you love gold, silver, et al, have at it.
I'll buy index puts on the peaks, myself...

[FoxV]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')You may like this site:

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www

Karl Denninger believes what you believe and talks all kinds of smack WRT goldbugs.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')You may like this site:

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www

Karl Denninger believes what you believe and talks all kinds of smack WRT goldbugs.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'G')old bugs, lol, worse than carpet lice.

[MC2]

Cube, there are easier ways, and they're much less risky than waking up one morning to find your holdings down 20 per cent. Then 20 per cent the next morning.

Gold IS a commodity, as is Silver, Copper, Platinum, winter wheat etc....

If Roccman can time it perfectly, he can make some money - most people can't do that, though. There's not a lot of warning when a bubble pops, and this is a huge bubble.

It also goes to the heart of the debate over whether this is an inflationary or deflationary period we're entering. We shall see.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'C')ube, there are easier ways, and they're much less risky than waking up one morning to find your holdings down 20 per cent. Then 20 per cent the next morning.

Gold IS a commodity, as is Silver, Copper, Platinum, winter wheat etc....

If Roccman can time it perfectly, he can make some money - most people can't do that, though. There's not a lot of warning when a bubble pops, and this is a huge bubble.

It also goes to the heart of the debate over whether this is an inflationary or deflationary period we're entering. We shall see.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'C')ube, there are easier ways, and they're much less risky than waking up one morning to find your holdings down 20 per cent. Then 20 per cent the next morning.

[MC2]

Cube, if you believe gold is going to 2000, then the markets are going to more than double. This is the hyper-inflationary scenario. Buy long-dated Calls on the indexes and clean up.

If you believe the market is headed lower, buy inverse index ETFs, make select short plays on specific stocks (financials, anyone?), and, oh yeah, don't forget to short GLD. When the gold bugs figure out they're on the wrong side of the trade, you collect. I think metals have a ways to go, as the political hedging is still in play, plus the fears about inflation (which will prove to be ungrounded), but the top will be in fairly soon.

Here's what I expect: next time the Fed cuts, we'll see a spike to maybe 1100. AFter that, be on watch out. Sooner or later, the deflationary nature of what's coming is going to sink in...

[MC2]

Well, I hate to say I told you so...

GLD - down 1.7 per cent

SLV - down 4.5 per cent

SDS and DXD up 3 per cent or so...

Does this mean the run-up in metals is over? I don't think so, they will probably go higher, as the Fed will cut rates, but this is the kind of thing that can and will happen along the way back to normal prices for these commodities. Gold will settle somewhere around 5 - 600 within a few months or so.

[Tyler_JC]

I think gold is going to hold its own for a while.

But if we see start seeing economic contraction in the emerging markets...SELL.

India and China are major importers of the shiny stuff and if their incomes aren't rising fast enough to buy an ever increasing stockpile of the shiny stuff, it's time to get out.

My guess is a drop of 20% or more and then a doubling. (to $1500 by 2010?)

It is extremely difficult to time this stuff. Just be careful. Don't bet the rent money in the market.

Buying gold at this point is like throwing a stack of twenty dollar bills on black at the roulette table. Could be great, could be lousy.

[qwanta]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'G')old will settle somewhere around 5 - 600 within a few months or so.