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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby JBinKC » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 10:05:10

45 % oil and gas stocks
20% metals stocks (3/4 industrial 1/4 precious)
15% cash
10% agricultural stocks(fertilizers and food producers)
5% energy technology stocks (solar superconductors)
5% other sectors foreign telecom and banking


65% of my portfolio (including cash) is a foreign company



This is excluding my bug out residence and raw land investments (fully paid for).
Last edited by JBinKC on Sun 13 Jan 2008, 10:14:02, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby patience » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 10:11:57

Seeking to understand your view on this, MMasters, how do you see the money being routed? What I've read said the Central bank's "slosh", or, loaned short term funds, are barely enough to keep the financials' nose above water, and are being held to meet reserve requirements as investment assets go bad.

The problem then is a lack of ability of the CB's to get the money loaned out to consumers to spend and stimulate trade, etc.

Do you then see a routing to some point, such as commodities, gold? My "porfolio" is cash, headed for hard goods, 95%. The balance is operating money. I would change my mix if I see the situation differently.
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby evilgenius » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 10:45:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'H')i Evilgenius,

I've been trying to find some high yielding food stocks and some growing companies. Do you mind giving me some names of companies or trade symbols?

Thanks


sure,

I hold amnf and babb. Amnf is a pink sheet that gives me a little over 6% and more because it has a history of paying special dividends. Babb is an East Coast chain that pays me over 8% and also has a history of special dividends. Amnf is growing, but not too fast, I think within reason. Babb is a solid company that likes growth but isn't after it as much as returns. Both stocks trade under a dollar most of the year. Both stocks have prices that oscillate within a 10% range and can usually be gotten at the low if you are patient. Amnf recently increased its dividend from .0125 a quarter to .015 because they have seen increasing sales.

Aside from dividend yielders I keep my eye on, but don't own, cedc, stz, and vco because they import into high value regions and do business in low value dollars. Cedc and vco have done well - but stz, even with some of the best cheap American wines, can't seem to break into the European markets. Their stock performance reflects that poor management.
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby pup55 » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 11:03:50

In 401K:
Federal Bond Funds 33%
International mutual funds 33%
other 33%

Out of 401K:
bank CD's in FDIC insured local banks 33%
Energy mutual funds 33%
Real Estate/Residential and other unknown probably about 33%
garage sale bikes $10

Liabilities:
mortgage: approximately 25% of the above real estate value

When everything bottoms out, I will move the federal bond stuff into something that will make money, and cash the CD's and do the same thing.
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby mmasters » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 13:15:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'S')eeking to understand your view on this, MMasters, how do you see the money being routed? What I've read said the Central bank's "slosh", or, loaned short term funds, are barely enough to keep the financials' nose above water, and are being held to meet reserve requirements as investment assets go bad.

The problem then is a lack of ability of the CB's to get the money loaned out to consumers to spend and stimulate trade, etc.

Do you then see a routing to some point, such as commodities, gold? My "porfolio" is cash, headed for hard goods, 95%. The balance is operating money. I would change my mix if I see the situation differently.

Basically the people behind the big banks of the world collectively decide who gets funding in general and create bubbles accordingly. They have a network of market players in various big banks financial institutions and hedge funds to drive chosen initiatives. Sure, there's a lot of high level money sloshing around but there's also a certain amount not being returned to the central bank's unlimited account. Anyhow another clue is how little the general public has access to agricultural commodities - there's only a couple funds you can invest in. Whereas in an area like technology you have thousands and thousands of funds. Surely there will be an explosion of commodities funds once the party gets going bigtime.

As an added bonus, in a global deflationary crunch essential commodities are likely to hold up probably better than anything due to their very nature of being essential!
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby topcat » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 13:50:30

Small & mid-cap funds = 5%
Large-cap fund = 5%
International/Emerging funds = 10%
Bond funds = 18%
PM explorers & producers = 20%
Cash/money markets/CD's = 36%
PM's = 6%
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby patience » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 14:07:20

MMasters, Okay, then the plan is to bubble up housing, let the bubble implode, and liquidate the credit shackled consumer, confiscate the assets. Later, inflate again, rinse, repeat...

I think I like my hard commodities. This is a retirement thing for us po' folks. Not in the markets, as a trader, this is just CYA as the financial world burns. We're spending on stuff for our own use, cutting energy needs to the bone, solar heat and electric, wood heat, greenhouse, garden, and a farm repair shop biz. Maybe buy a bigger stock of steel for the shop soon. Scrap is back up to $190/ton, a good indicator of price increases coming. Thanks!
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby threadbear » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 14:33:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'M')Masters, Okay, then the plan is to bubble up housing, let the bubble implode, and liquidate the credit shackled consumer, confiscate the assets. Later, inflate again, rinse, repeat...

I think I like my hard commodities. This is a retirement thing for us po' folks. Not in the markets, as a trader, this is just CYA as the financial world burns. We're spending on stuff for our own use, cutting energy needs to the bone, solar heat and electric, wood heat, greenhouse, garden, and a farm repair shop biz. Maybe buy a bigger stock of steel for the shop soon. Scrap is back up to $190/ton, a good indicator of price increases coming. Thanks!


Patience, Look at it this way. You've done ALL the right things. Investments in gold commodities, etc... can be made in lieu of purchasing home and land, and owning it outright. Precious metals are a great way of extending or just preserving purchasing power, particularly if a person is nervous about holding too much cash. It's also a good idea for those who think buying into a slowly deflating real estate/land bubble isn't a good idea right now, but don't want to see any savings they have in cash inflated away.
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby Starvid » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 16:38:07

1/3 in oil and gas, mainly the supermajors. One driller and one US nuclear power utility.

1/3 in global and Swedish stocks, both in the form of funds and direct stock holding (the Swedish stocks have gone to Hell, but well, I don't need the money soon so it doesn't really matter).

1/3 in bonds and defensive hedge funds.

Image
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby eastbay » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 18:45:25

We had a group laugh in the house at that hilarious cartoon Starvid!!

Great find!!

On that note, sometimes I think all the care we take in preparation will only offer us a few months, maybe a bit more, head start on the mob.

Maybe a few months is all we'll need...
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby cube » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 18:45:42

Woah so many diversified portfolios, I guess mine is going to look very out of place:

20%....................cash savings (US dollars)
80%...................."trading" commodity futures contracts
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby mattduke » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 21:12:55

energy equities ETF
energy futures ETF
precious metals mining ETF
physical precious metals bullion
offshore precious metals bullion
alternative energy equities ETF
agriculture equities ETF
agriculture futures ETF
water equities ETF

assorted individual picks in nuclear, pm, oil, tar sands
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby drew » Fri 18 Jan 2008, 00:50:28

Sold the CEF.A, bought more BCE

Now near 50% Canadian dollars.

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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby shakespear1 » Fri 18 Jan 2008, 06:47:15

50% in BPZ Oil
5% GLD
5% DBA
25% Vestas
15% CAMCO (driving me nuts)

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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby MrBill » Fri 18 Jan 2008, 12:14:25

I love that cartoon, Starvid. I was looking around trying to find it again. Thanks for re-posting it! ; - )

I am so lazy I don't even keep track of my portfolio. Just off the top of my head I own mainly euros, Canadian dollars and Sterling - about two thirds - as opposed to one third US dollars. Most of that is in cash or time deposits. I am afraid of inflation, but I am more afraid of high asset prices.

I have owned several mutual funds since the 90s. One is a Canadian oil & gas fund. Another is an Asian growth fund. Both have done very well, but I am not adding anything new to those positions. Just let them run.

My core trading position is mainly in integrated oil & gas companies as well as oilfield services. However, I took profit on many of those late last summer/early fall. Ditto for my DAX companies. Some of those companies had an excellent run in 2007, so I locked-in some profits and took some money off the table. My current trading position is less than one-third of what it was.

I am now planning to selectively start buying some battered down financial stocks that have lost up to 50% of their share value in the past year. They now look quite cheap and may lead the next rally. However, I am taking only half-bets. So that I can be a scale down buyer if need be. The lesson I learned after the dot com bust was that stocks can always go lower even if they are down 75-90% already! ; - )

The rest is in farmland and real-estate. Also long-term purchases that I hope to add to eventually with more rental units. I made the mistake of selling too early in London and then got locked-out of the property market after 2001. That was a big mistake as central banks dropped rates and the governments stimulated the economy. The rest was asset price inflation history.

However, I either pay for everything cash or I pay it off quickly. I paid off about 60% of my apartment I bought last year already. I will pay the rest off this spring. I hate debt!

I will not short anything. Too risky. Undermining governments and second guessing central banks is fun in the FX markets, but shorting equity is dangerous because TPTB are actively planning to support the very markets that desperately need to correct lower to their real value. And they can stay solvent longer than I can. They can even use my own taxes for their nefarious plans! B@$t@Rd$!!

But my most important investment has been in my education, life-long learning, eating healthy, staying in shape and enjoying my life! Have a great weekend! ; - )
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby mkwin » Fri 18 Jan 2008, 12:51:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'c')ommercial real estate holding company........................... 80%
Canadian cash...................................................................13.%
gold................................................................................... 7%

Am increasing gold to 15%, and reducing cash by 8% next week.


My god threadbear what are you doing with all your money in real estate?
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby Starvid » Fri 18 Jan 2008, 13:37:51

I've been worrying a bit about the supermajors, the intergrateds.

What if higher oil prices just result in host governments pocketing all the increased revenue either because of current production sharing agreements or through plain stealing?

What if governments feel they don't need the supermajors anymore, that they can get all the help they need from the service companies?

Any thoughts?

MrBill, someone else?
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby MrBill » Sat 19 Jan 2008, 04:35:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'I')'ve been worrying a bit about the supermajors, the intergrateds.

What if higher oil prices just result in host governments pocketing all the increased revenue either because of current production sharing agreements or through plain stealing?

What if governments feel they don't need the supermajors anymore, that they can get all the help they need from the service companies?

Any thoughts?

MrBill, someone else?



Resource nationalization is a fact of life in the oil business. Russian just raised export taxes on crude to record levels even though crude peaked in price and is now 10% lower. The integrated majors will have a tough time. The oil service companies that can work along side national oil cos. are a better bet. However, as governments find they cannot run these oil cos. efficiently, and as production peaks and declines, there will likely be another round of inviting experienced firms in to help shore up production and therefore export revenues. I believe that process is now underway in Libya after that country was closed to multi's for years. Mexico also needs to do something drastic to replace the revenue from PEMEX that is falling fast. They rely on PEMEX cash for something like 40% of their federal budget. Oops! But your investment time horizon is to buy low and sell high. Obviously major oil cos. will not be replacing their reserves indefinitely, so the goal is not to be permanently protected from higher oil prices and shortages long in the future, but how to profit from high crude prices in the next 12 mos. to 5 years. There are sadly no guarantees in life! ; - )
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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby drew » Sat 19 Jan 2008, 16:22:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
')My god threadbear what are you doing with all your money in real estate?



I was kinda wondering the same myself when I read it but Threadbear is a fellow Canuck and may still be immune to the housing meltdowns of other nations. I know that my region's market is very very healthy.


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Re: Share with us the shape of your portfolio

Postby threadbear » Sat 19 Jan 2008, 16:41:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'c')ommercial real estate holding company........................... 80%
Canadian cash...................................................................13.%
gold................................................................................... 7%

Am increasing gold to 15%, and reducing cash by 8% next week.


My god threadbear what are you doing with all your money in real estate?


I know it looks loony, but it's a waterfront commercial loft/office/warehouse space, purchased about 18 years ago and paid off about 6 years ago. It's not fancy, is at the lower end of the price spectrum in one of the best neighbourhoods in Seattle. It represents about 80% of our income and we couldn't possibly generate that kind of yield in a relatively safe, tangible asset anywhere else.
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