[Aaron]

Interesting: Jim Puplava and Financial Sense
found this on a financial investing site Financial Sense

[Theo]

Wow, that is very extensive!

[Dvanharn]

I'm bookmarking this website, Aaron - lots of good stuff to digest over time. I wonder how we all missed this guy! Here's some more of his writing from another page at the site.

Dave

Powershift - Oil, Money, & War by Jim Puplava



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he next war has just begun. The era of peace and stability that we have come to know is over. We are entering an era in history, not of peaceful economic competition between nations, but a time of warfare between tribes, ethnic groups, religions, and economic systems. This war will be unlike other wars. There will be no major battlefields. Armies won’t line up to face each other and do battle. The war will be taken to the cities and suburbs as well as the skies. It will be fought with car bombs, small explosives, light armaments, and listening devices. It will be a war of men killing each other at close quarters. Battles will be replaced by skirmishes, bombings, massacres and genocide. It will be fought by regular armies against small groups known as terrorists, guerrillas, bandits and robbers. War will, for the first time in the West, become personal.

[jato]

I've been on his site quite a while. I listen to the weekly web-radio broadcasts. Heinberg, Savinar & many others have been interviewed on his program. Good stuff!

[trespam]

Yes, www.financialsense.com is part of my daily reading. As well as www.prudentbear.com, www.safehaven.com, and Morgan Stanley, in particular Stephen Roach.

[marek]

As if PO were not enough to create a stagflationary environment, the China-Mart-driven trade deficit, the real estate bubble and government debt will have to be "inflated away."

Jim Puplava's Financial Sense Online



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat comes next is a period of disinflation as the economy weakens and the markets falter. After that the Fed will begin another credit cycle. Instead of recovery, we will enter into a stagflationary environment that eventually gives way to hyperinflation. There is simply too much debt and it will need to be inflated away. We are now ending the period where the end game plays itself out. Eventually foreign central banks will lose their appetite for U.S. debt. Many smaller central banks have already indicated they intend to reduce their Treasury exposure from Malaysia, Russia, and South Korea to OPEC. As more central banks jump on board this trend, it could eventually lead to a creditor's strike. A creditor’s strike will force the Fed into action. The Fed would then reduce interest rates and extend credit directly to the government. This means it will end up monetizing federal government debt. The result will be rising inflation and currency devaluation eventually leading to reduced living standards and labor strife here in the U.S.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/1014.html]THERE IS NO PLAN "B" (link)[/url]

“The oil crisis is very, very near. World War III has started.
It has already affected every single citizen of the Middle East.
Soon, it will spill over to affect every citizen of the world.”
Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, Vice President of the National Iranian Oil Company

[rogerhb]

Ain't that the truth.

[rkerver]

I learned about Jim Puplava' abundant good advise on this forum. I suppose he's popular here because he is peakoil literate and includes financial analysis that accounts for the coming seismic shifts in the finanacial markets that will result from a total world energy deficit (oil, natural gas, clean coal, uranium and renewables combined). He's at it once again:
Today's WrapUp by Jim Puplava - Cheap After All These Years

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')color=darkblue]Energy experts only disagree as to its timing. While the experts disagree as to the timing of Peal Oil, they all agree it’s on the horizon. The current discussion is on mitigation. What should be done now to mitigate the peaking of world oil production? Studies indicate that effective mitigation will cost hundreds of billions of dollars and will take decades to implement.... Since mitigation of this problem or crisis—depending on how soon it arrives—takes time and money, we should be starting to activate “Plan B” today. Possible alternatives include the following:
* Fuel efficient transportation (Mass transit, trains, hybrids, diesel)
* Heavy oil (Shale)/ oil sands
* Coal liquefaction
* Enhanced oil recovery
* Gas-to-liquids
* Alternatives nuclear, wind, solar conversion[5]

One suggestion would be to convert our present system of generating electricity over to nuclear, wind, solar, and clean coal freeing up much needed oil for our transportation system and natural gas for agriculture. Whatever method of energy that is used to mitigate peak oil, there is going to be enormous costs and long lead times to put them in place. The longer we fiddle and dither the worst the eventual crisis when it finally arrives. In the words of Dr. Robert L. Hirsh “If mitigation is too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will have to be achieved through massive demand destruction( shortages), which would translate to extreme economic hardship.“ .... we have no ”Plan B” and we need to start working on one real soon before it is too late.[/color]

[Doly]

I tend to agree with Simmons on this one: there is no plan B, all we have is plan C, which is trying to bridge things until we develop a practical alternative source of energy (or a practical combination of alternative energies).

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��The oil crisis is very, very near. World War III has started.
It has already affected every single citizen of the Middle East.
Soon, it will spill over to affect every citizen of the world.”
Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, Vice President of the National Iranian Oil Company

[aahala]

Did I miss something? What was Plan A? Was that where the world would
consume as quickly as possible all finite resources we could find?

[strider3700]

Yes and we'd never run out because as price goes up we'd figure out a way to make/get more because it was worth it.

Plan A is basic standard economic insanity.

[rkerver]

Plan A is the one where the volgons crash land near Houston with a zero-energy metaconverter ...

[roccman]

3rd hour

A quick summmary:

2008 will be "like an oreo cookie." First quarter will be volatile
and very rough. The Fed will rescue us one last time so the 2nd and
3rd quarters will be good. He could see the DOW going to 15,000 or
higher. He believes $ will go into commodities and tech and energy
stocks. However, by the 4th quarter "inflation will return with a
vengeance."

2009 the Fed will be raising interest rates to combat inflation, but
they'll be too late and political maneuvering will further damage the
economy so that by 2010 we will be in a hyper-inflationary depression.

[sicophiliac]

That seems to be a touch pessimistic for me, given we had a oil crunch in the 70s and we didn't officially hit a depression. From what I understand we are supposed to get an extra 5 million barrels per day of oil production online this year? Assuming that happens it might postpone the economic collapse by maybe a year or so if inflationary pressures are subdued. With the exception of that I would suspect 2010 to look pretty rough as by then we should have an undeniable and obvious shortage in oil supply. Combine that with all the debt from Mr Bush's little field trip in Iraq, big tax cuts and all the consumer debt taken out of the late housing boom and yes stagflation will be the economic reality. 2010 for a depression... ? maybe but I think it'll likely be another 2-3 years before things really get ugly.

[MC2]

Puplava is a gold bug. He's just talking his book. Good luck to him but gold will peak soon then drop like a stone over the next two years.

It's not going to be hyper-inflationary, for the reason that it can't be. It will be deflationary, with costs remaining historically high in some commodoties, like oil, but demand destruction will be inevitable as the world is seized in a massive economic coronary thrombosis.

[I_Like_Plants]

Hm, a true inflationary depression would be weird - "consumers" (we're not citizens any more) keeping their wallets in their pockets as long as possible and spending only on necessities, things like gasoline, milk, bread, beans, potroast, etc. Said necessities would have to still go up in value, say $3+ gas, $2 plus loaf of bread, $2.50 for a surprisingly little stack of tortillas, etc. Even powdered milk might go up to $13 and change for a large box. A set of picture hangers (made in China and only 5 in there) might be $3.79 at the hardware store - much cheaper to make your own. You might see more people going to thrift stores to buy old shit from the 1970s because it's far cheaper, and actually better stuff, than you can get now.


Um, wait a minute.... this is what's going on now!

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'P')uplava is a gold bug. He's just talking his book. Good luck to him but gold will peak soon then drop like a stone over the next two years.

It's not going to be hyper-inflationary, for the reason that it can't be. It will be deflationary, with costs remaining historically high in some commodoties, like oil, but demand destruction will be inevitable as the world is seized in a massive economic coronary thrombosis.

[MC2]

Schiff is another gold bug, and a hyperinflationist. He gets about half the picture, but the other half will ruin everyone who follows his advice.

Gold, also, is NOT money. It's a commodity, and commodities take the long one up the poop chute during deflationary depressions...