[crossthread]

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/id ... dChannel=0

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')uggesting the era of "plateau oil" is nearer than many in the business have admitted.

[sparky]

.

A common misunderstanding is to talk of oil as it was one thing ,
the present supply problem is the crashing supply of good oil , light low sulfur , beautiful stuff
the peak is well past for this grade , as it is for the coal equivalent gorgeous anthracite
what we have now is not so flash , heavy oil , full of H2S which is corrosive , explosive , toxic and stink of rotten eggs ...yuukkk ,
putting this in a catalytic reformer and you stuff your catalyst !!
Some expensive massaging is needed to make the stuff nice ,also being heavy it doesn't have so much of those C7 , C8 , C9 cuts to make gasoline easily , it need a fair bit of steam or catalytic cracking ....more costs

this is the plateau stuff , and we better like it because soon that's all we will have left ,
it's not so energetic , need more energy to get it and more energy to use
the coal equivalent is brown coal ,

during the down slope , the stuff used will be tars , bitumen , slops and oily rocks , wrung to get the last drips , dug or obtained at great cost
any rubbish which can be massaged as a fuel , and give a positive return on energy spend getting it ,
the coal equivalent is peat

as we journey along the consumption curve the energy obtained from a nominal barrel will in fact decrease


Hubbert was spot on , an people are dancing on the edge of the one hundred year depression

.

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[KevO]

Thanks for posting. This is without doubt the post of the year so far and should win 'the most significant peak oil is really, really real post you dickhead deniers award' since PO.com began.

I'm quoting from the original link here - what beautiful prose this is..
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ONDON (Reuters) - Oil at $100 a barrel should give exporters every incentive to pump more, but their difficulty in doing so shows the world is struggling to sustain production.

A growing number of leading industry figures -- the CEOs of Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) and ConocoPhillips (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) among them -- now question mainstream forecasts for supply, suggesting the era of "plateau oil" is nearer than many in the business have admitted.

While global oil demand is projected to grow to more than 100 million barrels per day later this century, some argue it may not be possible to boost flows beyond the current rate of some 86 million bpd.

Supply still falls short even after so-called unconventional oils extracted from tar sands and converted from natural gas are taken into account, said Sadad al-Husseini, a former top official at state oil giant Saudi Aramco.

"Today's oil prices are high because there are limited new supplies," Husseini, who ran exploration and production at the Saudi state oil company from 1986-2002, told Reuters. "There's a history now. We're several years into level production."

[kokoda]

Plateau oil sounds so much better than peak oil.

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'P')lateau oil sounds so much better than peak oil.

[timbo]

Oh happy day. NOT.

Time for the resource wars to kick into high gear

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'P')lateau oil sounds so much better than peak oil.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'P')lateau oil sounds so much better than peak oil.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')usseini says high prices will only sustain a production plateau of 85 million bpd for up to a decade. From then he sees the start of a long, gradual decline sinking the world's supply of oil and natural gas liquids to about 78 million bpd by 2030.

[sparky]

.

thuja " Peak Oil will become the top campaign topic, along with the recession, in the summer of 08- "

Oooohh nooo ! ..... denial all the way ,
the recession ..yes , high gas price .. yes , blame being spread by the bucket from oil sheiks to greedy speculators and multinationals ... of course

It is a fundamental tenet of the democratic system that the good folks who vote are blameless victims

If you want people to face up to their sins , It's not politic , it's religious revelations ,
It probably will come to that eventually but it will be way down the track

.

[thuja]

OK OK so maybe I'm being a tad optimistic-

People will scapegoat more than they want to look at real issues-

still- this one is going to be harder and harder and harder to deny...already the WSJournal, The Economist, Time and the Finacial Times are pciking up on it...I say we reach MSM awareness this year and it spreads to general awareness in 08- just a prediction...probably will be wrong...

[sparky]

.

Yep , the third quarter of 2007 saw peak oil accepted by the best stream of economist
As a great big freight train turning the bend , they had some time tables ,
the prospect was a distinct possibility in a theoretical sense but now
they can hear it, see it ,smell it and feel the ground vibrating under their feet , the precise timing is unimportant
Think of earthquake prediction ,
running down Santa Monica boulevard screaming "it's coming " is not going to help much
best case enough people believe you to start a panic that is the last thing you want ,
the best way to be useful is to make the top of any administration understand exactly what is coming , so that they are braced for the shock ,
it will not help much but it will make the decisions eventually taken synchronized with events and will make a small vital difference for a lot of people at the most critical of time .... the plunge


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[Twilight]

A severe enough recession could deflate peak oil momentum nicely. The new line would be that oil has not peaked, demand was destroyed, supply will hit new highs once demand returns with an economic recovery, and so on. Don't count your chickens just yet, there could be a setback of two years or more.

[shortonoil]

Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') severe enough recession could deflate peak oil momentum nicely. The new line would be that oil has not peaked, demand was destroyed, supply will hit new highs once demand returns with an economic recovery, and so on. Don't count your chickens just yet, there could be a setback of two years or more.

[sparky]

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Both right IMHO ,
Bold statement .." there is never going to be a shortage of oil , it's just that people will not be able to afford it ! "
free market work even when people are starving , an Indian guy got a Nobel prize analyzing the economics of a famine ,
he demonstrated that there always was food , it's just that some people couldn't buy enough of it

As for oil demand It has happened before , following the warning of the oil shock of 73
demand went down and messed up the beautiful symmetry of hubbert curve ,
only shallow people need to regret it ,
I have this whimsy of a super symmetry where even the dents of the 70ies recession will be duplicated

.

[KevO]

one for the deniers


thanks to shortonoil


cut it out, glue it to your cereal box
We peaked, we peaked

HELLO!

[SpringCreekFarm]

I'm getting alot of satisfaction hearing the local ( CHCH Hamilton ) news reports that we'll be paying more for fuel in the future and that food will cost more and and and.....other shit.

Problem is being right about peak oil to your peers is kind of anti climactic. (sp?)

[FoolYap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpringCreekFarm', 'P')roblem is being right about peak oil to your peers is kind of anti climactic. (sp?)

[SpringCreekFarm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoolYap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpringCreekFarm', 'P')roblem is being right about peak oil to your peers is kind of anti climactic. (sp?)