[TheDude]

A Quantitative Assessment of Future Net Oil Exports by the Top Five Net Oil Exporters

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')y Jeffrey J. Brown and Samuel Foucher

There is increasing concern worldwide about global oil supplies, especially in the context of a global oil production peak. However, what really matters to oil importing countries is world net oil export capacity, and we are deeply concerned that the top five net oil exporting countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE (United Arab Emirates), collectively accounting for about half of current world net oil exports, in aggregate are going to show an ongoing decline in net oil exports, continuing an aggregate net export decline that began in 2006.

Some recent net export decline rates in other countries, such as Indonesia and the UK, have been quite severe.

Indonesia exported 780,000 bpd (Total Liquids) in 1996. Eight years later, Indonesia was a net oil importer.

In a similar fashion, the United Kingdom in 1999 was a major net oil exporter, exporting more than one million barrels per day (mbpd). Seven years later, the UK was a net importer.

[Twilight]

Export Land . . . that strange phenomenon where oil exporters grow their economies.

It is a good read, comes strongly recommended.

Most energy exporters (outside of Africa) are industrialising, more and more of their energy is consumed domestically. As producers of huge energy surpluses, so far they have seen no need for world market pricing of energy within their borders. In the ME Gulf, cheap energy is treated as a perk that comes naturally with their position. Soaring prices have compensated for any effect rising domestic consumption might have had on revenues. Few countries have seen real incentives to conserve. In the meantime, the very countries that depend on imported energy are sending equipment the other way, equipment with which producers consume more. You don't need to be a peak oil doomer to see which way this trade ends.

Sometimes stating the obvious is revolutionary.

[steam_cannon]

Great find, you are "The Dude"!

It's really a shocking thought that we will be losing exports from Mexico soon. Then probably the Mexican government will face instability as their tax oil base evaporates. Then we may have a further crisis of unemployed immigrants pouring over the boarders.

Should be interesting...

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'I')n the meantime, the very countries that depend on imported energy are sending equipment the other way, equipment with which producers consume more. You don't need to be a peak oil doomer to see which way this trade ends.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'G')reat find, you are "The Dude"!

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'V')ielen dank, mein herr. You too, Walter. Both yuz plus Pup got my vote for poster of the year.

[Pixie]

I noticed this article, too, and found it to be about the most informative I have seen on the subject of peak oil in a long time. It helps me clarify my expectations for the future. Basically, the USA-Canada unit will achieve energy self-sufficiency by about 2030--BECAUSE NO ONE WILL BE SELLING!!!

How much will we be producing? Far less than we do now. Also, we have passed the North American peak for natural gas. We're still fixed for coal for a few decades, so that and the Canadian oil sands will probably be all we've got.

[Twilight]

I agree, the message here is that current oil importers will need to arrange an exclusive deal, colonize a producer, or get used to using less than they produce now. Not only will this game be interesting in itself, it will be doubly spiced up in coming as a complete surprise to the players.