[dennyinthegarden]

I've noticed something about my fellow humans, particularly family that may not tend to think like me: they don't seem to really want to listen or understand. Just over a year ago my sister and husband bought a Durango... I advised them not to and explained why. They went ahead and bought it. Last month they traded it in and lost a lot of money. Over and over again I have these I told you so experiences in regards to issues such as PO.

Seems to take awhile for the reality to sink in.

It occurred to me today that perhaps it might be helpful to draw out the details of 3-4 potential scenarios for the next 10 years in the hopes that the folks I'm close to might take it a bit more seriously. Sometimes numbers and details can help people visualize more than a more generally described reality. So, with that in mind I've set out to create a series of 3-4 speculative scenarios to help folks visualize the potential realities of PO.

My first thought is simply to ask:
What might happen in 10 years and where do we want to be? I'm thinking here specifically about just something concrete that people can directly relate to, namely, gas prices. From this I'd hope to create and/or discuss all of the other details of how PO might play out.

My estimates/rations may be way off... likely are but it's a start. The variables listed thus far are just the most obvious. Lots of variables not addressed such as the effects of increased demand or demand destruction. I don't want it to get overly complicated but don't want to over simplify either.... too much and people sometimes run away.

So, with that, anyone want to take a look and offer correction/opinions?

Best case
Things in Iraq get better
Things with Iran get better
General conditions in Middle East get better
Oil production continues flat

Assuming the above gas likely to rise an average of .25 - .50 a year and oil $10 a year for the next 5 years. After that assume .50 or more per gallon of gas and $10 - 15 per barrel of oil.

End of 2006= $2.90/gal gas, $75 / barrel of oil
End of 2007=$3.25/gal gas, $85-90 / barrel of oil
End of 2008=$3.60/gal gas, $95-100 / barrel of oil
End of 2009=$4/gal gas, $105-110 / barrel of oil
End of 2010 $4.50/gal gas, $115-120 / barrel of oil
End of 2011=$5.10/gal gas, $125-130 / barrel of oil
End of 2012=$5.70/gal gas, $135-145 / barrel of oil
End of 2013=$5.30/gal gas, $145-155 / barrel of oil
End of 2014=$6/gal gas, $155-165 / barrel of oil
End of 2015=$6.70/gal gas, $165-175 / barrel of oil
End of 2016=$7.80/gal gas, $175-185 / barrel of oil

Worse case
Things in Iraq continue to worsen
Things with Iran get worse
General conditions in Middle East get worse
Oil production continues flat, begins 2011 decline

Assuming the above gas likely to rise an average of .70 - 1.00 a year and oil $15 a year for the next 5 years. After that assume 1.20 or more per gallon of gas and $15 - 20 per barrel of oil. Of course should something drastic happen in the Middle East or in the U.S. or South America/Mexico, sudden and very large rises should be expected.

End of 2006= $2.90/gal gas, $75-80 / barrel of oil
End of 2007=$3.60/gal gas, $90-95 / barrel of oil
End of 2008=$4.30/gal gas, $105-110 / barrel of oil
End of 2009=$5/gal gas, $120-125 / barrel of oil
End of 2010=$5.80/gal gas, $135-140 / barrel of oil
End of 2011=$6.70/gal gas, $150-155 / barrel of oil
End of 2012=$7.70/gal gas, $165-170 / barrel of oil
End of 2013=$8.70/gal gas, $185-190 / barrel of oil
End of 2014=$9.70/gal gas, $200-215 / barrel of oil
End of 2015=$10.90/gal gas, $215-235 / barrel of oil
End of 2016=$12.10/gal gas, $235-255 / barrel of oil

Worst Case...

[ColossalContrarian]

I'm still really new to the whole PO thing but I'll take a shot at my personal BEGINING OF THE END predicted scenario...

Middle East issues won't improve until late 2008 - even that's being optimistic IMO. Don't think it matters though. Bush and company have a trick up their sleeve to keep oil production going on the short term regardless of turmoil throughout the region. As long as oil flows, Bush and Company's MISSION ACOMPLISHED!!!

$85-$90 a barrel at the end of 2006
$100-$105 end of 2007
$130-$140 end of 2011 -I'm thinking China will run really, really hot economically over the next 5-10 years

That’s about as far out as I can predict...

[NugBlazer]

You are not alone. Just about every single member of this forum has a story of friends and family who just don't want to face reality.

When trying to breech the subject with someone new, I usually start off with Matt Savinar's site, LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net. I tell them to take a look at it, then I wait. A week later, I ask them what they thought about it. IF....

1) ...they have some interest, even a little, then I start pointing out things that exist today that are direct signs of PO -- things that corroborate the info on Saavinaar's site. One of the most obvious is gas prices. There is a part of the website where Saavinar talks about how the price of a barrel of oil has risen from just $11 in 1998 to $50 at the time the site was written (2004), and he predicts that oil will cross $100 a barrel in the next 5-7 years. What I've found really compels people is when I tell them that oil has now already crossed $75 a barrel. It is strong evidence that Saavinaar's prediction is going to come true! It is already happening! People really seem to take that bit of info to heart, and from there it becomes easier to get them to take PO seriously.

2) ...they completely disregard everything on Saavinar's site, then I just give up on them. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.

[Waterthrush]

Denny, I'm curious - has your relatives' experience made them more receptive to the idea of Peak Oil?

[MC2]

Having personally weathered (in a new Toyota Corolla, 35 mpg) the mini-oil crash of 1979-81, here's an angle you might consider. All these SUVs and large pickup trucks that people are using for personal transportation are going to be worth bupkuss in a couple of years. I remember seeing mint late-sixties muscle cars like a Buick GS-455 I almost bought going for a few hundred in 1980. Restored examples of these machines today are selling for 20,000 and up. But no such market speculation will ever redeem the ugly people movers that have become so popular.
Simply put, if it doesn't beat 30 mpg, it won't be selling in a few years. Expect possible legislated sanctions against "gas guzzlers" as well. But the economic pressures wielded by 5.00/gallon and up gas will accomplish most of the work here.
By the way, I think most of the pricing estimates posted above are far too lenient. I'm looking for 4.00/gallon by the end of 2006, and probably well over 5.00/gallon by the end of 2007.

[duke3522]

Most of my family also continue to be in denial. My wealthy brother (man are topless bars cash cows) is getting ready to buy this. I guess so he can get even less mpg than his fully loaded suburban.

But my brother and his family have little, if any, motivation to conserve. He tells me that the price of gas really won’t effect him until the price goes above $10. And that is only because he figures $10 gas will dry up business at the bars.

[Fergus]

Untill pple are ready to hear it, they wont listen. Why bother, Go about your business and let them ask what You are doing? Only when you have their interest will they listen.

[dennyinthegarden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Waterthrush', 'D')enny, I'm curious - has your relatives' experience made them more receptive to the idea of Peak Oil?

[dennyinthegarden]

Thanks to those who have commented thus far. I wanted to add, to be clear, what I'm really hoping for is comment on the numbers directly. I think there's room for a worst case scenario that takes the worse case numbers a step further. I doubt there will be a need for any kind of better case scenario... perhaps something like "best case fantasy land"?

What about the numbers already there? Particularly the ratios in terms of barrel of oil and gas cost per gallon.

[pup55]

Hello, dennyinthegarden, welcome to the forum.

You have to ask yourself what the effect will be of a devaluation of the dollar. I think your numbers make sense based on a relatively strong dollar, but if the dollar goes down by some amount relative to something of value, your estimates will have to be adjusted.

Example: at $75 per barrel now, a 20% dollar devaluation would make the price $90 per barrel, without the supply or demand effects being any different than they are now.

So, you have to ask yourself Will the US try to protect the dollar (and the fatcats who are holding them) by raising interest rates? If you think they will allow the dollar to fall, then your estimates are optimistic. If you think the US will defend the dollar by raising rates, it could easily cause a recession that could cause a pretty major price decline.

Anyway, you can't keep people from making stupid decisions, even if you warned them in the first place. The question is, do they now come to you with newfound respect for your prognosticative powers, since you were right back then?

[Ludi]

So far for me it's been either pointless or actively counterproductive to try to alert friends and family to PO and what it might mean to our lives. So I mostly don't give in to impulses to try to inform them. It wouldn't make any difference as they will make no changes in their lives.

I'm very happy for those who have been more successful in telling folks about this issue.

[dennyinthegarden]

yeah, regarding inflation, thanks... great info. i keep that in back of my mind but it's a factor that probably warrants being closer to the front! as for them, family, coming to me with any kind of increased respect, perhaps a little. truth is, i've been on a 4 month vacation from family interactions (and human generally)... sometimes the frustration builds to such a point that i just have to have a bit of space to maintain my sanity. i work from home so it's often easy for me to go weeks without getting in a car.

ludi, i tend to agree with you... though i often have the urge to share... what makes it difficult is that, if one is close to extended family, is knowing that there is likely to be an impact back upon me if they do not plan. between 2 siblings and their spouses we have 5 kids in the family. i fear that when the time comes and they are caught ill prepared, it'll be next to impossible to watch their ship go down.

maybe that's the way it works... maybe they'll learn the hard way so to speak. but it's usually not that clean, you know? it's always difficult to step back and respect boundaries when there is the chance that their lack of preparation will, in time, have a direct effect on my life and my own circumstances. i know that when that time comes, if asked for help, i'd likely do my best. perhaps not... perhaps i'd turn around and say, you made your bed now deal... but i generally don't do that. so, you see, i'm really thinking of myself and trying to lessen the mess that, in the near future, i'll likely be drawn into.

boy am i glad i made the decision to live simply, and have no kids. sure i'm missing out on a lot of good but when the time comes, i can't imagine the responsibility... and dealing with the betrayal... parents that are not doing everything now... who go along as though nothing is wrong, when the time comes and they have to look their kids in the eyes and apologize... no way. no thanks.

if you ask me (and you kinda did lol) bringing children into THIS world is child abuse... just the act of having them. perhaps the ultimate act of child abuse.

[JPL]

For my 2 cents worth, maybe it's like living in Poland in 1939.

You see the Nazi tanks building up on the border. Some panic, some dig their gardens, some flee, the rest go into denial.

Some talk, others don't or can't. And then the guns sound in the distance. Suddenly, everyone knows THEY are coming...

JPL

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dennyinthegarden', 'i') fear that when the time comes and they are caught ill prepared, it'll be next to impossible to watch their ship go down.

[dennyinthegarden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dennyinthegarden', 'i') fear that when the time comes and they are caught ill prepared, it'll be next to impossible to watch their ship go down.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dennyinthegarden', 'n')ope, did not mean to imply that... not at all. just that what i see coming will not just be some sort of quaint little house on the prairie.

[misterno]

I came from a country where gas sells for $11/gl and the minimum wage is $2/hr. And nobody complains.

People drive smaller cars with stick shift and diesel engines, eat less meat and live in smaller high rise apartments and they do just fine and this is not a third world country BTW.

If you take into account the wage difference between this country and USA and factor in to the gas price, that means Americans will live easily till gas hits $44/gl. (wage difference is 4 times)

So I don't understand what all this hype for... Just sell your SUV, move to a small apartment and live like the rest of the world eating less meat and travel less. And if you do not want to cut back then stop complaining. Because it is your problem.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', '
') Just sell your SUV, move to a small apartment and live like the rest of the world eating less meat and travel less. And if you do not want to cut back then stop complaining. Because it is your problem.

[FoolYap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'A') lot of people in the US will sell their first born before they get rid of their SUVs.