[Graeme]

Leanan has already posted this story on the front page but I thought other members should read this too in case they missed it.

Are we running out of oil?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')evelopments in the oil market in recent years have helped build up a rather pessimistic and widespread perception about the future of oil and the oil industry, which is focused on one common question: Are we running out of oil? The short answer is, "No!" That is the good news.

The bad news is that each additional barrel of high-quality oil to global supply is getting more costly and difficult to find, develop, extract and bring to wherever it is demanded.

If we are not running out of oil, what else should be blamed? Two words: peak oil. The term "peak oil" has begun to enter the common vocabulary thanks to the ongoing, quite heated, debate inside and outside of the oil industry since the turn of the new century. There is no doubt that the debate will continue in the coming years and will probably become part of long-term energy and economic planning.

The peak oil debate has created two extreme camps: On the one hand there are those pessimists (mostly geologists) who argue that peak oil is already upon us or shortly (generally before 2015) will be. Once the peak is reached, this camp foresees skyrocketing prices leading to economic ruin, social and environmental collapse, massive dislocation and even a dying civilization. The most important advocate of this group is the International Association of the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), promoting the message of imminent depletion, often in crisis tones. Several oil companies such as Total, Statoil, the Libyan National Oil Company, ARCO and ConocoPhillips are closer to the opinions of the pessimists.

On the other hand there are those optimists (mostly economists and political scientists) who believe that unconventional sources of oil, technological advancement, market forces and increased investment will enable us to produce more oil or invest substitutes and hence meet increasing demand. They expect a smooth shift to new and better energy resources driven by market forces. Most prominent advocates of this group are the US Energy Information Agency, the International Energy Agency and CERA. They all argue that no peak is visible before 2030 and "above-ground issues" are more important than below ground issues. Several other oil companies, such as ExxonMobil and Eni, are supporters of the optimists.

In the middle stands another camp, called the mitigationists, warning of the risks and potential consequences of approaching peak oil. They suggest looking beyond conflicting forecasts and focusing on the consequences of underestimating the severe consequences of the peak oil problem as well as urging mitigation efforts to begin immediately.

[ohanian]

No but we are running out of excuses!

[Concerned]

The beauty of peak oil is that we will never run out of oil. Never ever ever.

Even mature depleted fields often contain 50% or more of the original oil in place.

Peak oil is such a beautiful thing. I think the frog is starting to notice the water is getting warmer