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Refining margins watch (was Tesoro)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Tesoro's earnings fall 80 percent

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 26 Dec 2007, 12:44:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude Oil 96.11
HO 2.666
RBOB 2.458

Ref Margin 12.1055 $/bbl
Ref Margin 0.2882 Cents/Gal


Update:

Notice that what is happening now is completely different than what was happening last fall, when the crude oil price nearly hit 100.

At that point, crude went up, but the products stayed fairly cheap. As we all know, the frequent viewers of PO.com were questioning what was happening on this.

Now, however, the products have pretty much followed the crude price. Today, in conjunction with the crude price increase, the finished products are up about 7 cents a gallon.

The refinery margin is still over $12. down a little from the other day, but still respectable.

So, at least for the time being, any crude oil price will cause finished products inflammation, and the public will be more sensitized to it, especially in about two weeks when the credit card bills hit.

Also note, that by the end of January, we will go into a period of low gasoline demand, so it will be interesting to see if we return to the same scenario we had during the fall.
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Re: Tesoro's earnings fall 80 percent

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 09:08:20

Kerkorian

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')irk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. will pay $684 million for a 35 percent stake in Delta Petroleum Corp. in a deal that will help Delta speed drilling activities in the Rocky Mountains. Denver-based Delta said the agreement will also provide funding for possible acquisitions. Its board unanimously approved the agreement allowing Tracinda to acquire 36 million shares. The $19-per-share purchase price represents a 23 percent premium to the company's closing stock price on Friday.


It looks like our man Kerkorian was really determined to get into the oil business.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The million-dollar question is, what does Kerkorian see that the rest of Wall Street doesn't?" David Tameron, an analyst at Wachovia Capital Markets LLC in Denver, said in a telephone interview.

Before yesterday, "it was suspected Delta was going to be forced to do some kind of equity offering or sell some assets to fund drilling, or else cut its 2008 budget," Tameron said.


The Toronto Star
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Re: Tesoro's earnings fall 80 percent

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 12:07:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ontinuing its focus on its most profitable assets, Valero Energy Corp. has told its employees that it could sell its refineries in Memphis, Tenn., and Krotz Springs, La.


skip

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Valero is disposing of those refineries that need to be upgraded to handle heavy sour crude," Gheit said. "Valero will be a company with strictly heavy, sour crude refineries. If you want to hit a bull's eye, this is where you should go. It's where the money is made and where the future is. Anything else is a diluted version of the pure play."

The ability to refine heavy crude oils benefits Valero, the nation's largest refiner, because heavier grades of crude oil sell for less than light, sweet crude oils. Gheit said refining margins could be tight this year.


Valero considers selling 2 refineries
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Re: Tesoro's earnings fall 80 percent

Unread postby pup55 » Sat 05 Jan 2008, 14:48:44

Update: We have not checked up on this for a day or two.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude Oil 97.91
HO 2.6835
RBOB 2.511

Ref Margin 11.6817 $/bbl
Ref Margin 0.2781 Cents/Gal


We are back under 12, off about a penny per gallon. But, this $2.51 will mean pump prices of about $3.15 within the next couple of days.

I don't know if you are a Cramer fan, but he was on just the other day talking about WNR. He agrees that refining margins are a lot more favorable, but he suggested to wait until they actually put a good quarter in the books before going long on the refiners.

Edit: Here is the clip:

They are still about a month away from their quarterly report, so it will be interesting to see how the improved refining margins treats this group.

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Re: Tesoro's earnings fall 80 percent

Unread postby pup55 » Sat 05 Jan 2008, 18:21:49

Conoco Interim Update

Cramer noted this announcement in the above clip.

Conoco earnings are due the 23rd. They are still kind of gloomy about refining margins, particularly in the middle of the country. A lot of this is based on how their reactors are set up.

The Valero announcement is illustrative of some forward thinking. We remember from the famed Refinery Downtime thread that these guys were among the worst for downtime. Maybe they are seeing the light.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
Valero Delaware City 181,500 103455 20,691 Reduced Output 17-May
Valero Houston 130,000 74,100 74,100 Plant shutdown 5-17 17-May
Valero Sunray 170,000 96900 30,000 catalytic cracking unit 24-May
Valero Houston 130,000 74,100 40,000 had to re-shut down half plant 4-Jun
Valero Krotz Springs 80,000 45,600 25,000 cracking unit down 4-Jun
Valero Ardmore 83,640 47,675 26,000 cracking unit 15-Jun
Valero Corpus Christi 142,000 80,940 26,980 15-Jun
Valero Ardmore 83,640 47,675 47,675 two weeks of unanticipated repair 7-Jul
Valero Delaware 181,500 103,455 25,864 reduced rate 10-Jul
Valero Port Arthur 325,000 185,250 70,000 coker problems 16-Aug
Valero LA 144000 82080 49248 power problems 4-Nov
Valero Port Arthur 325000 185250 74100 fire 6-Nov
')
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Re: Tesoro's earnings fall 80 percent

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 10 Jan 2008, 13:46:24

Update:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Crude Oil 93.67
HO 2.5542
RBOB 2.3618

Ref Margin 10.1317 $/bbl
Ref Margin 0.2412 Cents/Gal



This downdraft in crude pricing has negatively affected the refinery margins. We are now down to about 10, we were over 12 for awhile.
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Re: Tesoro's earnings fall 80 percent

Unread postby Mechler » Thu 10 Jan 2008, 13:55:37

Thanks, Pup. I've been slaughtered on my WNR buy, but I'm going to ride it out until around June. I'm banking on a gasoline situation like we had last spring.

I don't believe a recession is going to decrease demand enough to keep prices down for long.

Anyway, I'm interested in how this will all play out.

Until then, I suppose the refiners will continue to suffer until there are crude supply builds and RBOB draws.

Edit: Maybe this thread should be renamed to Refining Margins or something...
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Re: Tesoro's earnings fall 80 percent

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 10 Jan 2008, 14:21:33

Reuters via 321energy

This will cheer you up:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers will pay record prices for gasoline this spring, with national monthly pump costs peaking near $3.50 per gallon when the busy driving season begins, the government's top energy forecasting agency said Tuesday.


I think the thread originator or a moderator can change the thread title.
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Re: Tesoro's earnings fall 80 percent

Unread postby qwanta » Fri 11 Jan 2008, 18:04:26

TSO down another 6% today. I guess it's getting dragged down with the rest of the stock market.

Still in it for the long term, but these corrections are tough sometimes! Those times when you feel like throwing in the towel are said to be the best time to buy; but it takes nerves of steel I must say...
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Re: Tesoro's earnings fall 80 percent

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 11 Jan 2008, 18:22:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')SO down another 6% today.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s a leading independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products, Tesoro, through its subsidiaries, operates seven refineries primarily in the western United States with a combined crude oil capacity of more than 660,000 barrels per day (bpd). The seven refineries are located in:


* Anacortes,Wash.
* Mandan, N.D.
* Kapolei, Hawaii

* Martinez, Calif.
* Kenai,Alaska
* Salt Lake City, Utah

* Wilmington, California



Company Website

The last several refining projects that have come through have cost about $20,000 per MBPD.

Based on this, TSO should be "worth" at the very minimum $13 billion. Current market cap is about $5 billion. So, this situation will not go on much longer.
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Re: Tesoro's earnings fall 80 percent

Unread postby oilluber » Sat 12 Jan 2008, 20:26:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')SO down another 6% today.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s a leading independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products, Tesoro, through its subsidiaries, operates seven refineries primarily in the western United States with a combined crude oil capacity of more than 660,000 barrels per day (bpd). The seven refineries are located in:


* Anacortes,Wash.
* Mandan, N.D.
* Kapolei, Hawaii

* Martinez, Calif.
* Kenai,Alaska
* Salt Lake City, Utah

* Wilmington, California



Company Website

The last several refining projects that have come through have cost about $20,000 per MBPD.

Based on this, TSO should be "worth" at the very minimum $13 billion. Current market cap is about $5 billion. So, this situation will not go on much longer.


The US energy stocks are unloved, despised and trashed by
wall street. Yet they have the best value in terms of earnings , valuations to the rest of the market.
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Re: Refining margins watch (was Tesoro)

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 12 Jan 2008, 21:28:04

Renamed thread for you guys as per suggestion above.
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Re: Refining margins watch (was Tesoro)

Unread postby pup55 » Sun 13 Jan 2008, 23:17:13

Since AP nicely changed the title to this thread, let us do some calculations:

Here were the prices and refinery margin a year ago this week:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Crude Oil 51.88
HO 1.4804
RBOB 1.3905

Ref Margin 8.6732 $/bbl
Ref Margin 0.2065 Cents/Gal


And here is what they are right now:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude Oil 92.5
HO 2.54
RBOB 2.315

Ref Margin 10.1165 $/bbl
Ref Margin 0.2409 Cents/Gal


So, what this says is that even though the oil price has gone up by 78% in the last year, the refinery margins have only improved by about 16%, proving once again that either the crude oil market is overheated, or gas is too cheap.

Interestingly, our pet stock TSO is trading at about 37 as of Friday, but a year ago was trading at 31, so the stock price is about 19% higher, or roughly a function of the refining margins.

Funny how this stuff works out.

Now, can you guess what will happen when the demand for unleaded starts to pick up in the spring?

Here is what happened last year on May 1:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude Oil 62
HO 1.8899
RBOB 2.24

Ref Margin 23.6986 $/bbl
Ref Margin 0.5643 Cents/Gal


So if the past two years are any indication, we should see these margins improve noticeably by Feb 1

Warning: this post is for entertainment purposes only. I am just some guy on the internet. Do not take investment advice from anyone who has a job.
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Re: Refining margins watch (was Tesoro)

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 14 Jan 2008, 00:37:18

With margins so low (comparatively) It almost makes you wonder if someone or some entity is not putting pressure on or actually subsidizing the refiners to keep the margins at their lower end.

Makes you go hmmmmmm.

I think gas is just too cheap. The price needs to be allowed to rise as a control. If it's being manipulated somehow its the wrong thing to be doing. I find it rather hard to believe refiners are allowing the money to just be left on the table right now. Its going to be very interesting to see what happens to the price of gas come spring time!
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Re: Refining margins watch (was Tesoro)

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 14 Jan 2008, 01:00:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'W')ith margins so low (comparatively) It almost makes you wonder if someone or some entity is not putting pressure on or actually subsidizing the refiners to keep the margins at their lower end.

Makes you go hmmmmmm.

I think gas is just too cheap. The price needs to be allowed to rise as a control. If it's being manipulated somehow its the wrong thing to be doing. I find it rather hard to believe refiners are allowing the money to just be left on the table right now. Its going to be very interesting to see what happens to the price of gas come spring time!


Crazy conspiracy theorist. You sound like that nutty Roccman, and Threadbare. :lol:
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Re: Refining margins watch (was Tesoro)

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 14 Jan 2008, 22:13:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK (AP) -- Frontier Oil Corp. led refining stocks higher Monday after a FBR Research analyst upgraded the stock, citing Frontier's operations and an attractive price.

Frontier shares rose $1.04, or 2.9 percent, to $36.20. Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose $1.03 to $93.72 a barrel by late morning on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was still down significantly from highs late last year.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')BR analyst Eitan Bernstein upgraded Frontier to "Outperform" from "Market Perform", saying the company has "consistently been one of the industry's top performers" due to its Midwest assets and heavy-crude processing ability.


Yahoo

TSO up nearly two clams today, the whole refinery group higher.

I wonder if Eitan Bernstein is a frequent viewer of this thread?
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Re: Refining margins watch (was Tesoro)

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 19:15:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude Oil 91.52
HO 2.54
RBOB 2.305

Margin 9.5341 $/bbl
Margin 0.227002381 Cents/gal


Bad day in flat rock for the Refiners. We are down under 10.

TSO gave back what it made yesterday.
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Re: Refining margins watch (was Tesoro)

Unread postby qwanta » Fri 18 Jan 2008, 18:19:07

TSO up 8.44% today, VLO +3.66%. Maybe the beginning of a new trend?

P/E ratios really low, I think VLO was getting close to 5!
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Re: Refining margins watch (was Tesoro)

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 18 Jan 2008, 20:08:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude Oil 90.57
HO 2.507
RBOB 2.303

Margin 9.84024 $/bbl
Margin 0.234291429 Cents/gal


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')/E ratios really low, I think VLO was getting close to 5!


Good explanation

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onocoPhillips is expected to report a 5% boost in net income Wednesday as the first U.S. oil major to weigh in with its fourth-quarter earnings, but the fatter bottom line seems unlikely to disperse bearish sentiment in the sector as Wall Street looks at prospects for 2008.


Mkt Watch

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')E ARE UPGRADING SHARES OF Holly Corp. from Equal Weight to Overweight. We view Holly Corp. shares as attractively valued and poised to benefit from what we expect will be improving refining margins during the spring.


Barrons

No other exciting news. You must be right. Finally these guys are beaten down enough.
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Re: Refining margins watch (was Tesoro)

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 00:08:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude Oil 87.62
HO 2.443
RBOB 2.26

Margin 10.60498 $/bbl
Margin 0.252499524 Cents/gal


Update:

We are back over $10, and should see some signs of life from this group. Most were pummelled in the recent downdraft.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Talk of U.S. refiners cutting back operating rates at refineries east of the Rockies should help help boost margins on oil products, traders said on Tuesday.

Last week, West Coast independent refiner, Tesoro Corp. (TSO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it began cutting output from its plants in Janaury because of a slump in profit margins. Stock of gasoline and diesel there are at record high levels, analysts said.


Reuters
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