PeakOil is You
THE Uranium Supply Thread pt 4 (merged)
Re: Uranium Supply
by Tanada » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 08:26:57
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'F')rom just over a year ago:Energy Watch Group warns: Depleting uranium reserves dash hopes for atomic energy supply.
Yup, they were wrong November 29, 2006 and they are still wrong on January 3, 2008.
Claiming that something is running out with no facts or figures the industry in question agrees with seems rather silly doesn't it? Two and a third pages fraut with errors about Uranium are then followed by two and a half pages about the coal shortage.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
- Tanada
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Re: Uranium Supply
by sch_peakoiler » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 10:19:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Claiming that something is running out with no facts or figures the industry in question agrees with seems rather silly doesn't it? Two and a third pages fraut with errors about Uranium are then followed by two and a half pages about the coal shortage.
')Claiming that something is running out with no facts or figures the industry in question agrees with seems rather silly doesn't it? Two and a third pages fraut with errors about Uranium are then followed by two and a half pages about the coal shortage.
you should understand, however, that the reality is slowly sliding away to the antinuclear side right now.
We produce some 40 000 tons of uranium for a fact, and consume some 67000 tons, for a fact as well. We know for a fact that secondary supplies like HEU last till approx. 2013 (5 more years). We know for a fact that construction of a new mine from scratch to the first pound of U3O8 takes some 10 years. We know for a fact that if we calculate exploration to those 10 years we are at 15 years. There is no "looming supply gap" - we live in a "supply gap" right now.
And the answer of the opposite side is like "move along, nothing to see here, seawater uranium and granite mines, move along".
I would say that in a situation like this the pro-nuclear side should be coming with hard facts as to new mines coming online, new uranium sites discovered recently, old phosphate mines restarting uranium operations, and all these should be supplied with numbers.
But instead we see an accident at cigar lake with 7000 tons less for several years to come.
In this situation, people who tend to think rationally and not to "believe" something start to pay more attention to the antinuclear side. Because the reality, as I already told, starts to slide in that direction.
There is no information on new uranium finds or new mines having been opened. It is so to say "old uranium in the new paperback".
In this information vacuum one will tend to attain the information which is available - and this factual information does not favor nuclear power.
There is no knowledge that is not power.
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sch_peakoiler - Tar Sands
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Re: Uranium Supply
by Dezakin » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 11:17:16
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_uranium_mines
Of all the existing mines, most are planning some expansion of their operations. I dont see an immediate crisis of any sort.
In addition there is going to be a very large surplus in enrichment capacity over the next 5 to 10 years if gasseous diffusion plants aren't immediately retired. If the price for enriched uranium goes up, you can just spend more SWU. Even if all uranium production came to a halt, there are huge stocks of depleted uranium with .25-.3% U235, enough to last global demand for several decades.
Of all the existing mines, most are planning some expansion of their operations. I dont see an immediate crisis of any sort.
In addition there is going to be a very large surplus in enrichment capacity over the next 5 to 10 years if gasseous diffusion plants aren't immediately retired. If the price for enriched uranium goes up, you can just spend more SWU. Even if all uranium production came to a halt, there are huge stocks of depleted uranium with .25-.3% U235, enough to last global demand for several decades.
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Dezakin - Heavy Crude
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Re: Uranium Supply
by sch_peakoiler » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 11:35:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'h')ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_uranium_mines
Of all the existing mines, most are planning some expansion of their operations. I dont see an immediate crisis of any sort.
Of all the existing mines, most are planning some expansion of their operations. I dont see an immediate crisis of any sort.
The difference is that the mines are PLANNING, whereas the supply gap EXISTS already. That is why as time goes by the word PLANNING slowly ceases to provide an adequate answer to the uranium shortage claim.
A forecast as in "X tons uranium more in Y years" would be an answer, for example. But not "Mine X is planning to think about substantially expanding operation in next years".
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')In addition there is going to be a very large surplus in enrichment capacity over the next 5 to 10 years if gasseous diffusion plants aren't immediately retired.
Do you have any infos as to how many SWUs exactly are being built? or is it just a guess?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') If the price for enriched uranium goes up, you can just spend more SWU.
I know this. But as of today we do not seem to be awash in SWUs. We have just about 50 million, which are used up to about 80%, right? If you can provide numbers on how many SWUs will be built in 5 to 10 years then we will be able to calculate how much extra uranium could be extracted from depleted tails.
There is no knowledge that is not power.
