[Aaron]

Year Cost (gas) at the time

1919 $0.25

1929 $0.21

1939 $0.19

1949 $0.27

1959 $0.31

1969 $0.35

1979 $0.84

1989 $1.02

1999 $1.17

2009 $____

[sciencegirl]

What ??? is this per gallon, per litre, or per cup ???



or something different ?

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sciencegirl', 'W')hat ??? is this per gallon, per litre, or per cup ???



or something different ?

[roccman]

$75.00/gallon

(would be consistent with what we currently pay for a 16oz starbucks)

[eastbay]

$5.00

[Zardoz]

It looks like the 35 cents a gallon price in 1969 was the sweet spot. That appears to be the cheapest it ever was, which just happens to coincide with the peak of the "golden age" of American muscle car mania, when you could stroll into a Dodge or Ford dealer and order a 500 HP monster that would get something like 8 MPG.

2009 prediction: $5.50 a gallon for regular gas.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '$')75.00/gallon

[Narz]

I'll go w/ an average of between $4 and $4.50.

Edit : By the way, I am assuming these prices are for Jan. 1st, 2009. If there are for the year as a whole I'll up my estimate to between $4.25 and $5.25 (possibly near $6, maybe higher, by the end of the year).

[highlander]

OK, I'll play too. There are areas i the US where gas has been above 4.00 for a while (I don't visit them, so you folks that routinely see the over4.00 prices please chime in)
Average US prices will be over 4 by 9/11/08. 5.00 by 5/30/09 and 6.00 by 12/31/09. My biodiesel will still cost less than 1.50/gal by 12/31/09 (if the FEDS still let me make it, otherwise, it's down copperhead road for me)

[dinopello]

Between $4.68 and $9.36

[Kingcoal]

According to what I've read, the late nineties was the cheapest gas ever when adjusted for inflation. I think in 2009, we'll have $4.50/gal and a lot of panicking people. What complicates the situation is the waning ability to export inflation. Welcome to the new non-negociatable way of life.

[lawnchair]

With all the shenanigans of the dollar, it'd make more sense to measure gallons of gas against kumquats.

I guess I'll predict it'll average $4.25 or so in '09, with a tropical-storm-watch $5. A number of states will, on a 'temporary emergency' basis, suspend fuel taxes altogether to stem the backlash, floating junk bonds and/or letting the roads rot.

[kmann]

$3.75 nominal averaged for the whole year

[steam_cannon]

All joking aside if things keep plugging along, a reasonable estimate would be:

2008: $3.20 to $3.60 per gallon

2009: $3.60 to $5.22 per gallon

And of course if things don't keep chugging along smoothly, higher estimates come into play. 2009 gas prices like $8.22 could easily be possible if the petrodollar gets dumped.

Predicting crude prices

2000--$10/bbl
2002--$20/bbl
2004--$40/bbl
2006--$80/bbl (Rounded)
2007--$100bbl
2008--??
2009--??
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '2')000--$10/bbl
2002--$20/bbl
2004--$40/bbl
2006--$80/bbl (ok it missed this by a couple cents--big deal)
2008--?? Do the math!

http://www.peakoil.com/nextopic27482.html

[PhebaAndThePilgrim]

Good day from Pheba, from the farm:
Somebody please help me figure this out. I am looking for some figures or charts that compare what the U.S. has been paying for gasoline compared to what global price of a barrel of oil is.
For some reason 100.00 per barrel with a gasoline cost in the midwest of 2.89 per gallon seems out of kilter.
My husband tried to explain to me that since home heating oil is in demand now, gasoline is at a surplus in the U.S. Thus, the lower price. he also stated that the tanking U.S. dollar has something to do with it.
Thanks, Pheba.

[xarkz]

3.5$. ill guess that the recession will prevent the price from surging much higher than it is now, for some time.

[dinopello]

Pheba,

Click here for 3 year price chart

then check the box that says "show crude oil price" and you will get gas prices and oil price on one chart. The price tracks until about July of this year and then oil takes off and leaves gas. It does seem unusual.

[lawnchair]

Again, it totally depends on perspective.

Between 1919 and 1959, a gallon of gasoline cost somewhere a little below one shiny silver quarter (SSQ). Pretty damn steady about it, too.

Today, a shiny silver quarter is worth about $2.75. Not too far off a gallon of gas. Averaged through the last year, though, and gas has been somewhere over the SSQ.

In the late 90s. a shiny silver quarter got you $0.89. Not quite a gallon of gas, except during price wars, but not far off, either.

In the first year of the Bush admin, an SSQ got somewhere closer to $0.75. Half a gallon of gas or so.

Thinking that gasoline is actually more useful than silver, transient, and depleting, one would expect it to eventually be worth a fair bit more than one SSQ.

Not sure what it proves, other than the dollar has resumed it's path toward the dustbin of old unloved fiat notes of yore.

[steam_cannon]

With the crude oil price chart I posted earlier, I fitted an exponential trend line since it seemed the best fit and the price growth numbers look exponential. Extrapolating that out 10 years may not be appropriate, but just to see what that would look like here is it.


Crude $8000 per barrel in 2020? Even without modifying that equation I mentioned earlier, $75 per gallon could happen long before that (though not next year without other factors coming into play). And hey, maybe in a few years wind farms and corn fuels will make crude irrelevant.

This chart is not likely to be too accurate a few years out, but I think it illustrates the concern many of us have about the rapid changes we will face due to exponential growth and the changes that are likely to happen in the near future. It should be interesting...