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Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Do you want oil production to peak, sometime in the reasonably near future?

Yes I do
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No votes
No I don't
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Total votes : 196

Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 22:08:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skyemoor', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilmanChoke', ' ') I repeat my query, if we have a 300 year supply of something, doesn't that qualify as sustainable for all intents and purposes?


I'll repeat my answer;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ustainable Energy definition: Energy that can be produced economically and safely for all time without impacting the environment and well-being of future generations. http://www.cotswold.gov.uk/nqcontent.cfm?a_id=1484


If it is hydrocarbons you are talking about, then the widespread use of these unduly impacts the environment and hence are not sustainable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilmanChoke', 'P')lease, one of you go invent a 1000 year or 100000 year sustainable, cheap energy supply.


No invention necessary. Wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, wave, etc are sustainable. Cheap is a relative word; don't forget we consider external costs as well. $100/barrel oil is not cheap.


I'll give you the same objection you gave me: Where's your *timetable* for shutting off the fossil fuels/nuclear and switching over to 100% sustainable energy?
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 22:16:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')'ll give you the same objection you gave me: Where's your *timetable* for shutting off the fossil fuels/nuclear and switching over to 100% sustainable energy?
The timetable is not as critical, if one isn't looking to maintain business as usual. Since renewable energy is the only viable sustainable energy, it is the only long term supply strategy we should adopt. If we want to avoid complete chaos as we move down the energy slope, some serious public education is needed, in order to enable a move to a non-growth economy.

For a fair way of managing oil decline, the Oil Depletion Protocol, along with some form of Tradeable Energy Quotas seems sensible.

Pain is unavoidable but attempts to continue growing the energy supply will lead to more pain, even if it starts later.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 22:18:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skyemoor', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'F')urthermore, nitrogen fertilizer can be produced without any fossil fuel at all, using hydroelectricity, wind or nuclear power. Nitrogen comes from the air, not from natural gas. For details, see:
PEAK OIL AND FERTILIZER: NO PROBLEM

Please inform yourself better so that you don't perpetuate lies.
You never address scale.


Nor timeframe to change over the current natural-gas based ammonia production infrastructure. Nor what to do about all the hydropower that is currently tied up with baseload electricity generation.


We will switch from the current natural-gas based ammonia infrastructure when it becomes economic to do so -- i.e. when imports become too expensive, or it becomes cheaper to use coal, or nuclear. We don't live under the Soviet system where these transitions are scheduled by apparatchiks without reference to prices.

And who said that fertilizer has to be produced with hydro? It can be, but it will more likely be produced with coal, and then nuclear.


Again JD- I think you miss the point that preparations for large scale changes must take place well in advance of a crisis.
You have given no reason to believe there will be a nitrogen fertilizer crisis. If you are so sure such a crisis will occur, tell me why and when.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 22:36:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')'ll give you the same objection you gave me: Where's your *timetable* for shutting off the fossil fuels/nuclear and switching over to 100% sustainable energy?
The timetable is not as critical, if one isn't looking to maintain business as usual.

What a load of B.S.! LOL. You're clearly dodging the issue and trying to maintain a double-standard. Sorry I'm not buying it. You're the one who says we need to plan 30 years ahead to head off the crisis. So where's the *plan*, man? I want dates, and schedules.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince renewable energy is the only viable sustainable energy, it is the only long term supply strategy we should adopt.

Who appointed you as the spokesman for everybody? You're not the king. We live in a democracy where policy is ultimately decided by the electorate. Maybe the majority will do what you say they should. And maybe they'll just trample all over you because, deep down, they care more about their cars more than the environment. Personally, I think it's the latter. I'm a realist.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 22:59:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'Y')ou never address scale.

Tony, I am more than willing to do a hundred page thread with you on the topic of scale at any time. I only have one condition: that you formulate the problem of scale for me -- tell me what human beings won't be able to do -- in one sentence.
Replace fossil fuels for all of their uses, on scales that business as usual would dictate, on a timescale that mitigates the impact of fossil fuel declines and that doesn't impact our habitat for the worse.


I've replied in a new thread:
Link
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 22:59:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')'ll give you the same objection you gave me: Where's your *timetable* for shutting off the fossil fuels/nuclear and switching over to 100% sustainable energy?
The timetable is not as critical, if one isn't looking to maintain business as usual.

What a load of B.S.! LOL. You're clearly dodging the issue and trying to maintain a double-standard. Sorry I'm not buying it. You're the one who says we need to plan 30 years ahead to head off the crisis.
No I didn't say that. Must have been someone else.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince renewable energy is the only viable sustainable energy, it is the only long term supply strategy we should adopt.

Who appointed you as the spokesman for everybody? You're not the king. We live in a democracy where policy is ultimately decided by the electorate.No-one appointed me king, I was merely stating the obvious. If you believe that non-renewable energy sources can be maintained indefinitely, then maybe you can put your name forward for Grand Miracle Worker. Nature has the final say over what people would like to be the case.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'M')aybe the majority will do what you say they should. And maybe they'll just trample all over you because, deep down, they care more about their cars more than the environment. Personally, I think it's the latter. I'm a realist.In what way are you a realist? Is it realistic to expect peoples desires to be met indefinitely, or is it realistic to expect natures limits to ultimately be the deciding factor?
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Lighthouse » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 23:10:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '.')..., or is it realistic to expect natures limits to ultimately be the deciding factor?


Tony, nature does not have any limits, nature does not have any rules. Nature does not care if the hunter gets the beast or the beast gets the hunter. In the end both end up as compost.

There is no waste in nature either.

And humans are part of nature. It does not matter how detached we might see ourselves. Btw we are not the only species, which consummates more than the environment can offer.
I am a sarcastic cynic. Some say I'm an asshole. Now that we have that out of the way ...
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 23:14:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '.')..., or is it realistic to expect natures limits to ultimately be the deciding factor?


Tony, nature does not have any limits, nature does not have any rules. Nature does not care if the hunter gets the beast or the beast gets the hunter. In the end both end up as compost.

There is no waste in nature either.

And humans are part of nature. It does not matter how detached we might see ourselves. Btw we are not the only species, which consummates more than the environment can offer.
I agree. The limits I refer to are limits with regard to what humans try to demand of the rest of nature.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 23:17:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'Y')ou have given no reason to believe there will be a nitrogen fertilizer crisis. If you are so sure such a crisis will occur, tell me why and when.


When NG supplies in North America begin to decline - in about three/four years, by most reckoning. If we haven't built more LNG terminals or opened up massive amounts of unconventional gas where do we turn? Albeit fertilizer is a small amount of NG consumption, and could be subsidized/rationed. And you are correct that we could import more from China's coal-fed fertilizer stocks.

One thing you might investigate is the feasibility of switching over the current US NG fertilizer apparatus to use some other energy source. The Natural Gases aren't delivered on trucks, it's a bunch of tubes! To paraphrase Ted Stevens (R-AK). Are rail lines located near NG facilities? How much would switching over feedstocks cost per year, will the equipment work with both coal and NG, how much of an impact would this have on coal consumption? And so forth. Contribute something productive.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilmanChoke', 'K')ind of like the first Nukes, where the possibility existed for setting off a global chain reaction. That must have been a butt clencher day in NM for those in the know!


Really reassuring example there! That was Oppenheimer, Teller, Fenyman chattering their teeth. To be fair the Permian-Triassic extinction (95% species wiped out) also had the Siberian Traps lava flows and multiple bolide impacts going on, too. Still - you want us to muck around with something that might wipe out say 33% of all life if it went wrong? I'm for an international test ban on drilling into the methane hydrates, sorry. It's such an obscure issue I'll never have my way. Think I'll move to Point Barrow!

You should take these responses you get here as they come. Some people are very snippy or ideologically driven. It happens. Few bother to look at things from a businessman's perspective, either. I say - know your enemy! It's how the rest of the world is thinking. The ideal goal would be to make your favorite meme of Sustainability ridiculously lucrative. You don't care exactly how you make that killing, do you?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince renewable energy is the only viable sustainable energy, it is the only long term supply strategy we should adopt.


Who appointed you as the spokesman for everybody? You're not the king. We live in a democracy where policy is ultimately decided by the electorate.


Which has also been posited as a barrier to effective action on climate change - same holds true of energy transitions.

Kind of a bizarre statement - what non-renewable energy supply is viable on the long-term?
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 23:29:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')'ll give you the same objection you gave me: Where's your *timetable* for shutting off the fossil fuels/nuclear and switching over to 100% sustainable energy?
The timetable is not as critical, if one isn't looking to maintain business as usual.

What a load of B.S.! LOL. You're clearly dodging the issue and trying to maintain a double-standard. Sorry I'm not buying it. You're the one who says we need to plan 30 years ahead to head off the crisis.
No I didn't say that. Must have been someone else.

Oh sorry. I guess that was thuja. So you're of the opinion that planned governmental action is not necessary, then?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince renewable energy is the only viable sustainable energy, it is the only long term supply strategy we should adopt.
Who appointed you as the spokesman for everybody? You're not the king. We live in a democracy where policy is ultimately decided by the electorate.No-one appointed me king, I was merely stating the obvious. If you believe that non-renewable energy sources can be maintained indefinitely, then maybe you can put your name forward for Grand Miracle Worker. Nature has the final say over what people would like to be the case.
The statement "we *should* only adopt sustainable energy" is a totally different proposition from "non-renewable energy sources cannot be maintained indefinitely". The second is an obvious fact that everyone agrees with. The first is your personal opinion, which virtually everyone disagrees with.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'M')aybe the majority will do what you say they should. And maybe they'll just trample all over you because, deep down, they care more about their cars more than the environment. Personally, I think it's the latter. I'm a realist.In what way are you a realist? Is it realistic to expect peoples desires to be met indefinitely, or is it realistic to expect natures limits to ultimately be the deciding factor?
I'm a realist because I don't think people will give up non-sustainable energy simply because you think they should. Sermons about the powers of Mother Nature don't affect that point.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby thuja » Wed 02 Jan 2008, 00:25:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')'ll give you the same objection you gave me: Where's your *timetable* for shutting off the fossil fuels/nuclear and switching over to 100% sustainable energy?
The timetable is not as critical, if one isn't looking to maintain business as usual. Since renewable energy is the only viable sustainable energy, it is the only long term supply strategy we should adopt. If we want to avoid complete chaos as we move down the energy slope, some serious public education is needed, in order to enable a move to a non-growth economy.

For a fair way of managing oil decline, the Oil Depletion Protocol, along with some form of Tradeable Energy Quotas seems sensible.

Pain is unavoidable but attempts to continue growing the energy supply will lead to more pain, even if it starts later.


As much as I am a proponent of sustainable energies, I don't think we will be able to politically mandate a reduction in consumption below the likely decline in production level that will take place after the peak.

That means we will simply have to adapt to, not outpace, oil depletion.

Radical conservation and energy efficiency, coupled with continued fossil fuel usage as we transition to alternative energies is the best bet in my mind. We have lost the time to try and reduce consumption before the depletion sets in.

This is why Bali is worthless as well. Any attempt to reduce emissions will simply pale in comparison to the likely depletion rates, and thefore emission rates that are coming down the pike.

Its adaptation, not mitigation...
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 02 Jan 2008, 00:50:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'S')o you're of the opinion that planned governmental action is not necessary, then?
Certainly not. We need to figure out a way to get to using resources only at their renewal rate, without unmanageable adverse consequences. The government will have a big role to play, since market forces are unlikely to do what's needed. Initially, governments should ensure a massive education programme takes place, to educate the public about the end result of our current way of life.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince renewable energy is the only viable sustainable energy, it is the only long term supply strategy we should adopt.

Who appointed you as the spokesman for everybody? You're not the king. We live in a democracy where policy is ultimately decided by the electorate.
No-one appointed me king, I was merely stating the obvious. If you believe that non-renewable energy sources can be maintained indefinitely, then maybe you can put your name forward for Grand Miracle Worker. Nature has the final say over what people would like to be the case.

The statement "we *should* only adopt sustainable energy" is a totally different proposition from "non-renewable energy sources cannot be maintained indefinitely". The second is an obvious fact that everyone agrees with. The first is your personal opinion, which virtually everyone disagrees with. People disagree with it because of their irrational desires. If renewable energy is the only viable long term strategy, we should adopt it, though what the people will accept (in the short term) is a different matter. Hence the need for massive education of the public.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')'m a realist because I don't think people will give up non-sustainable energy simply because you think they should. Sermons about the powers of Mother Nature don't affect that point.I agree. My realism comes from the fact that nature doesn't care what people want. People will have to give up non-sustainable energy anyway.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 02 Jan 2008, 06:51:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')You have given no reason to believe there will be a nitrogen fertilizer crisis. If you are so sure such a crisis will occur, tell me why and when.

If you want to worry about fertilizer, think about phosphorus then nitrogen btw.

I agree that chemical industry could find at least in principle a way around nitrogen fertilizer.
Solar (or hydro or nuclear) electricity--->hydrogen--->ammonia--->nitric acid.

However once rich phosphate ores are exhausted, you will no longer be able to provide phosphorus fertilizer of high bioavailability, so yields from industrial agriculture will fall 2-4 times.

BTW, I doubt we can reprocess phosphorus in the fashion like Chinese did in the past, unless we return to agrarian systems.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Judgie » Wed 02 Jan 2008, 07:35:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'I') voted yes.

We have the technology and the wherewithal to change.

- We can use solar and other alternatives like wind. Microwave technology from space would be amazing.
- We can use modern safer nuclear reactor designs as well as the breeder reactors they are working on making commercially viable.
- We can work less hours like the French do and hunter gatherers of old did.
- We can recycle and build things so that they last and not simply throw away to be replaced every 5 years.
- We can share this rich sustainable life with all mankind. e.g. nano solar is now cost competitive with coal. When it scales up it will provide clean energy for all humanity.

What can we do collectively if we stop breeding and move our military budgets to cutting edge energy technology?

You can take the pessimistic view or the optimistic view. I think humans will change in ways that will surprise people. Sure it might take a few wars, bird flu and population reduction (die off) but I can see a better world. Mind you I could also see a much worse world but you got to hope for the best, it's not like the current world situation is all peachy.


Could not agree more. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Jenab6 » Wed 02 Jan 2008, 23:44:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jeezlouise', 'O')il-Finder: I think this is a BS question. Oil production will peak sooner or later (or already has) regardless of what we want. I get the feeling that what you really meant to ask was:

"Do you want to see the violent destruction of civilization within your lifetime so you can participate in it, because you are a minsanthropic doombat?"

Personally, to that, I'd have to say no. But there are plenty of non-doomers on this board who will answer your original question with a "yes" because they'd rather get whatever ill effects of the production backslide over with now, rather than put it off until the world's population is even larger and, as such, the total suffering might be greater.

Those two are not really mutually exclusive. I, myself, am somewhat of a misanthropic doombat. I rejoice that fools, great and small, will die because they can no longer use fossil fuels to defray the cost of foolishness.

I feel glee over the fact that comfortable people who, because of their social position or wealth, felt smug and superior, will soon feel mortal terror instead.

I want the stupid-heads of the world to fall shrieking into hell, while I munch my apples, nibble my shelled walnuts, snack on wild-lettuce salad, and read all the best fantasy novels.

I want to know that all the people who got the better of me in the games of office politics are now inescapably victims of a dieoff that I had wisdom enough to save myself from.

I want all the people who Were Warned, but assumed that they Knew Better, to learn--to have their minds forcibly centered on the fact--that, no, they didn't.

I desire to have the Last Laugh.

However, I also prefer a short, sharp shock of a few years to a long, drawn-out bloody drag of several decades. And I prefer a smaller dieoff sooner to a larger one later.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby peripato » Thu 03 Jan 2008, 00:36:52

With the explosive rate of growth in population and industrialism, and the effect it's having on the environment, all of it driven by, or reliant on, heaps of cheap oil, then why wouldn't you pray every day for peak oil and an early collapse? At least this way perhaps some of the worst consequences of overshoot and global warming can be averted. The only thing worse than peak oil is no peak oil.
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 03 Jan 2008, 08:43:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', ' ')I, myself, am somewhat of a misanthropic doombat. I rejoice that fools, great and small, will die because they can no longer use fossil fuels to defray the cost of foolishness.

I feel glee over the fact that comfortable people who, because of their social position or wealth, felt smug and superior, will soon feel mortal terror instead.

That is a bit simplistic view.
Certainly large number of these peoples will face total ruin, but many of them will use their wealth and influence while it is still there to invest massively in land, natural resources etc.
These will become some sort of seeds of emerging "aristocracy" of the future.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') want to know that all the people who got the better of me in the games of office politics are now inescapably victims of a dieoff that I had wisdom enough to save myself from.

Again, read above.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever, I also prefer a short, sharp shock of a few years to a long, drawn-out bloody drag of several decades. And I prefer a smaller dieoff sooner to a larger one later.

I agree with that view.
It would be kinder to environment.
However my gut feelings are that, at least in US, collapse will be decades long process entailing authoritarian state, following resource wars etc.
It may even proceed (but not necessary will) to global atomic war.
In any case economical collapse, hunger, disease, crime, other forms of social pathology will finish off a party at the end, but it will take time to get there.

Meantime you will enjoy Mexican life standards for a while (and Mexican "invasion" too...).
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby KMO » Sun 13 Apr 2008, 13:15:59

I thought a lot about the fallout from this poll. I think some friction arose from the fact that the poll doesn't really give people the opportunity to justify their 'yes' or 'no' choice.

People could choose 'yes' either because they want to see the human cancer purged from Gaia's flesh or because they want to re-localize community and find a workable human place in the ecological balance of the earth. Both categories of people get lumped in together with this poll.

Similarly, people who chose 'no' because they love Global Corporate Capitalism and want to keep it going get lumped in with anti-globalization types who hate trans-national corporations but still don't want to initiate a "Malthusian Correction."

I blogged about it here:

http://kmo.livejournal.com/344293.html

And created a poll of my own which you can find on my website:

http://www.c-realm.com

Stay well.

-KMO
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 02:33:45

The avalanche has already begun. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?

Unread postby madison » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 21:09:12

Yes, I do want peak to happen and I expect it to be horrible.

However, the longer it is pushed into the future, the more people there will be in existance - and how many additional billions will suffer then?

The sooner peak oil, resource depletion, climate chaos and all the other woes to come start the ball rolling, the sooner we will get to something similar to a sustainable life for the survivors. If it comes sooner, hopefully our planet will be not completely destroyed for the survivors who are left.

But really, it's not a fair poll. Who WANTS disaster or chaos or death and suffering? It's going to happen whether you want it to or not. My opinion matters not a whit to the planet!
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