Since there is a lot of debate over if other forms of energy can replace fossil fuels and in what rate i intend to make a landing model.
It will enhold these things in various variables (like peak in 2008 and 2015):
- Peak in Oil as the main factor
- The time we can replace oil with gas and coal based on peak of coal.
- Growth rates and staying at current consumption levels of energy substances
- EROEI decrease of fossil fuels
- Efficiency and conservation decrease of energy
- Predicted renewable growth, renewable growth needed to offset decline of fossil fuels (and possibly growth)
- Possibilities of Uranium and as some claim breeder or fusion (if they would work in the timespan according to some experts)
maybe options:
- hydrogen and biofuels
- An unkown energy source (renewable) for the future
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you have any other thing to add, wish to help or can supply some data on things that you THINK that can work (with data) please add them to the thread.
If you want to help contact me at
koppelaar@webmail.co.za
PeakOil is You
The Landing model, data needed (help could also be useful)
First unread post • 17 posts
• Page 1 of 1
The Landing model, data needed (help could also be useful)
by Taskforce_Unity » Tue 18 Jan 2005, 13:05:40
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Taskforce_Unity - Coal
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by Taskforce_Unity » Tue 18 Jan 2005, 13:14:40
Ow another thing
It will be based on Excel worksheets and maybe some SPSS database. Since that's all i am familiar with (i'm not that good in modelling)
It will be based on Excel worksheets and maybe some SPSS database. Since that's all i am familiar with (i'm not that good in modelling)
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Taskforce_Unity - Coal
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by pup55 » Tue 18 Jan 2005, 13:57:36
Cool.
Most all the data I use is from the BP Statistical Review, so no problem.
As for your forecasts, peak predictions and/or decline curves, easily generated from other threads in this section so no problem either.
Don't know about uranium.
But the question is, what will be your "response variable", in other words, once you put in the projections on energy usage, forecasts, rate of transfer between energy sources, EROEI, etc, etc, what will be the output?
Most all the data I use is from the BP Statistical Review, so no problem.
As for your forecasts, peak predictions and/or decline curves, easily generated from other threads in this section so no problem either.
Don't know about uranium.
But the question is, what will be your "response variable", in other words, once you put in the projections on energy usage, forecasts, rate of transfer between energy sources, EROEI, etc, etc, what will be the output?
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pup55 - Light Sweet Crude
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by Taskforce_Unity » Thu 20 Jan 2005, 05:31:57
Response variable will be the time and growth rate needed for alternative energies to be implented. From this you will be able to conclude what kind of landing is possible.
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Taskforce_Unity - Coal
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by pup55 » Thu 20 Jan 2005, 11:54:35
Okay. Got another question (friendly and supportive).
So your real "dependent variable" is "landing".
You will test various alternate energy growth rates (independent variable), over time (independent variable) given some assumptions about expected oil peak and other energy sources (independent variables) to see the effects on "landing" (dependent variable).
What's your measurement of "landing"?
So your real "dependent variable" is "landing".
You will test various alternate energy growth rates (independent variable), over time (independent variable) given some assumptions about expected oil peak and other energy sources (independent variables) to see the effects on "landing" (dependent variable).
What's your measurement of "landing"?
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pup55 - Light Sweet Crude
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- Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
by Taskforce_Unity » Mon 24 Jan 2005, 07:22:02
Tricky question,
It will depend on the amount of conservation and efficiency possible i think.
Didn't figure everything out yet. I usually do that and get more think patterns when i am working on something like it.
I'd say a soft landing is one in which we can keep most of the luxuries we have now by conservation and efficiency, some negative growth and a small contraction of the population. It also depends on the country ofcourse were you live.
It will depend on the amount of conservation and efficiency possible i think.
Didn't figure everything out yet. I usually do that and get more think patterns when i am working on something like it.
I'd say a soft landing is one in which we can keep most of the luxuries we have now by conservation and efficiency, some negative growth and a small contraction of the population. It also depends on the country ofcourse were you live.
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Taskforce_Unity - Coal
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by pup55 » Mon 24 Jan 2005, 17:57:00
Ah, then "landing" might be defined in several ways: population loss, per-capita GDP, maybe even some measurement like life expectancy.
SPSS, in my experience (which was from back in the punch card days) should be good at this. Using the historical data for the independent variables, it will compute for you the equation for each of the above dependent variables. From that, simple to construct a spreadsheet with the forecast oil, coal and gas production, and using the equation that SPSS gives you, project the population, per capita GDP or whatever else you want. You put in different forecasts, and the spreadsheet gives you different estimates of all of the above dependent variables.
The tricky part will be the interperetation, of course.
SPSS, in my experience (which was from back in the punch card days) should be good at this. Using the historical data for the independent variables, it will compute for you the equation for each of the above dependent variables. From that, simple to construct a spreadsheet with the forecast oil, coal and gas production, and using the equation that SPSS gives you, project the population, per capita GDP or whatever else you want. You put in different forecasts, and the spreadsheet gives you different estimates of all of the above dependent variables.
The tricky part will be the interperetation, of course.
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pup55 - Light Sweet Crude
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data dump part 1
by pup55 » Tue 25 Jan 2005, 15:12:13
col
1 year
2 oil production gb
3 global life expectancy yrs
4 population billions
5 global gdp trillion 1995 dollars
6 gas production bcm
7 coal prod tons
8 nuclear trillion watt=hrs
9 hydro milllion ton oil equivalent
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '1900 0.20 35.98 1.55
1901 0.24 36.13 1.57
1902 0.27 36.28 1.59
1903 0.31 36.43 1.61
1904 0.35 36.59 1.63
1905 0.38 36.74 1.65
1906 0.42 36.89 1.67
1907 0.45 37.04 1.69
1908 0.49 37.20 1.71
1909 0.53 37.35 1.73
1910 0.56 37.50 1.75
1911 0.60 37.80 1.76
1912 0.64 38.10 1.77
1913 0.67 38.39 1.78
1914 0.71 38.69 1.79
1915 0.75 38.99 1.81
1916 0.78 39.29 1.82
1917 0.82 39.58 1.83
1918 0.85 39.88 1.84
1919 0.89 40.18 1.85
1920 0.93 40.48 1.86
1921 0.96 40.77 1.88
1922 1.00 41.07 1.90
1923 1.00 41.37 1.92
1924 1.29 41.67 1.94
1925 1.57 41.96 1.97
1926 1.86 42.26 1.99
1927 2.14 42.56 2.01
1928 2.43 42.86 2.03
1929 2.71 43.00 2.05
1930 3.00 43.48 2.07
1931 3.20 43.96 2.07
1932 3.40 44.44 2.08
1933 3.60 44.92 2.08
1934 3.80 45.40 2.08
1935 4.00 45.89 2.09
1936 4.20 46.37 2.09
1937 4.40 46.85 2.09
1938 4.60 47.33 2.09
1939 4.80 47.81 2.10
1940 5.00 48.29 2.10
1941 5.20 48.77 2.14
1942 5.40 49.25 2.18
1943 5.60 49.73 2.22
1944 5.80 50.21 2.26
1945 6.00 50.70 2.30
1946 6.20 51.18 2.34
1947 6.40 51.66 2.38
1948 6.60 52.14 2.42
1949 6.80 52.62 2.46
1950 7.00 53.10 2.50
1951 7.30 53.46 2.59
1952 7.60 53.82 2.64
1953 7.90 54.18 2.68
1954 8.20 54.55 2.73
1955 8.50 54.91 2.78
1956 8.80 55.27 2.83
1957 9.10 55.63 2.89
1958 9.40 55.99 2.95
1959 9.70 56.35 3.00
1960 10.00 56.72 3.04
1961 10.32 57.08 3.08
1962 10.64 57.44 3.14
1963 10.96 57.80 3.21
1964 11.29 58.16 3.28
1965 11.61 58.52 3.35 -- -- -- 26 210
1966 12.62 58.88 3.42 -- -- -- 35 225
1967 13.55 59.25 3.49 -- -- -- 43 230
1968 14.76 59.61 3.56 -- -- -- 52 242
1969 15.93 59.97 3.63 -- -- -- 63 257
1970 17.54 59.85 3.71 -- 1021 -- 78 269
1971 18.56 60.17 3.78 -- 1086 -- 110 280
1972 19.59 60.49 3.86 -- 1135 -- 151 294
1973 21.34 60.81 3.94 -- 1186 -- 203 297
1974 21.40 61.13 4.01 -- 1209 -- 263 324
1975 20.38 61.45 4.09 -- 1209 -- 364 328
1976 22.05 61.77 4.16 --- 1258 -- 433 330
1977 22.89 62.09 4.23 -- 1307 -- 535 337
1978 23.12 62.41 4.30 -- 1351 -- 619 363
1979 24.11 62.73 4.38 -- 1444 -- 640 380
1980 22.98 63.05 4.45 18699 1457 -- 711 387
1981 21.73 63.37 4.53 19009 1484 3831 836 395
1982 20.91 63.68 4.61 19100 1487 3980 917 411
1983 20.66 64.00 4.69 19613 1492 3987 1029 430
1984 21.05 64.32 4.77 20510 1625 4192 1245 444
1985 20.98 64.64 4.85 21254 1676 4421 1482 453
1986 22.07 64.96 4.93 21935 1723 4529 1596 459
1987 22.18 65.28 5.02 22701 1808 4629 1736 467
1988 23.04 65.60 5.11 23735 1891 4735 1893 479
1989 23.36 65.92 5.19 24639 1953 4818 1947 478
1990 23.88 66.24 5.28 25393 2000 4718 2003 495
1991 23.80 66.56 5.37 26004 2032 4538 2098 507
1992 23.99 67.00 5.45 27237 2045 4498 2115 507
1993 24.09 67.09 5.53 27707 2080 4383 2187 535
1994 24.47 67.18 5.61 28562 2101 4460 2227 540
1995 24.82 67.26 5.69 29354 2142 4526 2325 569
1996 25.48 67.35 5.77 30307 2235 4649 2408 578
1997 26.29 67.44 5.85 31337 2239 4654 2392 586
1998 26.79 67.53 5.93 32004 2289 4538 2433 594
1999 26.30 67.61 6.00 32969 2351 4309 2524 603
2000 27.25 67.70 6.08 34268 2433 4306 2583 614
2001 27.19 67.79 6.15 34706 2490 4529 2655 589
2002 27.03 67.88 6.23 35286 2532 4848 2699 593
2003 28.02 67.96 6.30 -- 2619 5119 2646 595
2004 -- 68.05 -- -- -- -- -- --')
1 year
2 oil production gb
3 global life expectancy yrs
4 population billions
5 global gdp trillion 1995 dollars
6 gas production bcm
7 coal prod tons
8 nuclear trillion watt=hrs
9 hydro milllion ton oil equivalent
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '1900 0.20 35.98 1.55
1901 0.24 36.13 1.57
1902 0.27 36.28 1.59
1903 0.31 36.43 1.61
1904 0.35 36.59 1.63
1905 0.38 36.74 1.65
1906 0.42 36.89 1.67
1907 0.45 37.04 1.69
1908 0.49 37.20 1.71
1909 0.53 37.35 1.73
1910 0.56 37.50 1.75
1911 0.60 37.80 1.76
1912 0.64 38.10 1.77
1913 0.67 38.39 1.78
1914 0.71 38.69 1.79
1915 0.75 38.99 1.81
1916 0.78 39.29 1.82
1917 0.82 39.58 1.83
1918 0.85 39.88 1.84
1919 0.89 40.18 1.85
1920 0.93 40.48 1.86
1921 0.96 40.77 1.88
1922 1.00 41.07 1.90
1923 1.00 41.37 1.92
1924 1.29 41.67 1.94
1925 1.57 41.96 1.97
1926 1.86 42.26 1.99
1927 2.14 42.56 2.01
1928 2.43 42.86 2.03
1929 2.71 43.00 2.05
1930 3.00 43.48 2.07
1931 3.20 43.96 2.07
1932 3.40 44.44 2.08
1933 3.60 44.92 2.08
1934 3.80 45.40 2.08
1935 4.00 45.89 2.09
1936 4.20 46.37 2.09
1937 4.40 46.85 2.09
1938 4.60 47.33 2.09
1939 4.80 47.81 2.10
1940 5.00 48.29 2.10
1941 5.20 48.77 2.14
1942 5.40 49.25 2.18
1943 5.60 49.73 2.22
1944 5.80 50.21 2.26
1945 6.00 50.70 2.30
1946 6.20 51.18 2.34
1947 6.40 51.66 2.38
1948 6.60 52.14 2.42
1949 6.80 52.62 2.46
1950 7.00 53.10 2.50
1951 7.30 53.46 2.59
1952 7.60 53.82 2.64
1953 7.90 54.18 2.68
1954 8.20 54.55 2.73
1955 8.50 54.91 2.78
1956 8.80 55.27 2.83
1957 9.10 55.63 2.89
1958 9.40 55.99 2.95
1959 9.70 56.35 3.00
1960 10.00 56.72 3.04
1961 10.32 57.08 3.08
1962 10.64 57.44 3.14
1963 10.96 57.80 3.21
1964 11.29 58.16 3.28
1965 11.61 58.52 3.35 -- -- -- 26 210
1966 12.62 58.88 3.42 -- -- -- 35 225
1967 13.55 59.25 3.49 -- -- -- 43 230
1968 14.76 59.61 3.56 -- -- -- 52 242
1969 15.93 59.97 3.63 -- -- -- 63 257
1970 17.54 59.85 3.71 -- 1021 -- 78 269
1971 18.56 60.17 3.78 -- 1086 -- 110 280
1972 19.59 60.49 3.86 -- 1135 -- 151 294
1973 21.34 60.81 3.94 -- 1186 -- 203 297
1974 21.40 61.13 4.01 -- 1209 -- 263 324
1975 20.38 61.45 4.09 -- 1209 -- 364 328
1976 22.05 61.77 4.16 --- 1258 -- 433 330
1977 22.89 62.09 4.23 -- 1307 -- 535 337
1978 23.12 62.41 4.30 -- 1351 -- 619 363
1979 24.11 62.73 4.38 -- 1444 -- 640 380
1980 22.98 63.05 4.45 18699 1457 -- 711 387
1981 21.73 63.37 4.53 19009 1484 3831 836 395
1982 20.91 63.68 4.61 19100 1487 3980 917 411
1983 20.66 64.00 4.69 19613 1492 3987 1029 430
1984 21.05 64.32 4.77 20510 1625 4192 1245 444
1985 20.98 64.64 4.85 21254 1676 4421 1482 453
1986 22.07 64.96 4.93 21935 1723 4529 1596 459
1987 22.18 65.28 5.02 22701 1808 4629 1736 467
1988 23.04 65.60 5.11 23735 1891 4735 1893 479
1989 23.36 65.92 5.19 24639 1953 4818 1947 478
1990 23.88 66.24 5.28 25393 2000 4718 2003 495
1991 23.80 66.56 5.37 26004 2032 4538 2098 507
1992 23.99 67.00 5.45 27237 2045 4498 2115 507
1993 24.09 67.09 5.53 27707 2080 4383 2187 535
1994 24.47 67.18 5.61 28562 2101 4460 2227 540
1995 24.82 67.26 5.69 29354 2142 4526 2325 569
1996 25.48 67.35 5.77 30307 2235 4649 2408 578
1997 26.29 67.44 5.85 31337 2239 4654 2392 586
1998 26.79 67.53 5.93 32004 2289 4538 2433 594
1999 26.30 67.61 6.00 32969 2351 4309 2524 603
2000 27.25 67.70 6.08 34268 2433 4306 2583 614
2001 27.19 67.79 6.15 34706 2490 4529 2655 589
2002 27.03 67.88 6.23 35286 2532 4848 2699 593
2003 28.02 67.96 6.30 -- 2619 5119 2646 595
2004 -- 68.05 -- -- -- -- -- --')
-
pup55 - Light Sweet Crude
- Posts: 5249
- Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
data dump part 2
by pup55 » Tue 25 Jan 2005, 15:16:12
forecasts based on the verhulst model
year
oil 2008 peak gb
oil 2015 peak gb
nat gas mcm
coal tons
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '2004 28.09 29.35 2757 5,014
2005 28.20 29.73 2815 5,036
2006 28.27 30.07 2871 5,057
2007 28.32 30.39 2926 5,077
2008 28.35 30.67 2979 5,095
2009 28.34 30.92 3030 5,113
2010 28.31 31.14 3079 5,130
2011 28.26 31.32 3126 5,146
2012 28.19 31.47 3170 5,161
2013 28.09 31.59 3211 5,174
2014 27.97 31.68 3249 5,187
2015 27.83 31.73 3284 5,198
2016 27.67 31.75 3316 5,208
2017 27.50 31.74 3344 5,218
2018 27.30 31.70 3368 5,226
2019 27.09 31.62 3389 5,232
2020 26.87 31.52 3405 5,238
2021 26.63 31.39 3417 5,243
2022 26.38 31.23 3425 5,246
2023 26.12 31.04 3428 5,249
2024 25.84 30.83 3427 5,250
2025 25.56 30.59 3422 5,250
2026 25.27 30.33 3412 5,249
2027 24.97 30.05 3397 5,246
2028 24.66 29.75 3378 5,243
2029 24.35 29.43 3354 5,238
2030 24.03 29.09 3326 5,232
2031 23.71 28.74 3294 5,226
2032 23.39 28.37 3257 5,218
2033 23.06 27.98 3216 5,208
2034 22.72 27.59 3171 5,198
2035 22.39 27.18 3122 5,187
2036 22.06 26.77 3070 5,174
2037 21.72 26.35 3014 5,161
2038 21.38 25.92 2955 5,146
2039 21.05 25.48 2893 5,130
2040 20.71 25.04 2829 5,113
2041 20.38 24.59 2762 5,095
2042 20.04 24.14 2692 5,077
2043 19.71 23.69 2621 5,057
2044 19.38 23.24 2548 5,036
2045 19.05 22.79 2474 5,014
2046 18.73 22.34 2398 4,991
2047 18.41 21.89 2322 4,968
2048 18.09 21.44 2245 4,943
2049 17.77 20.99 2168 4,917
2050 17.46 20.55 2090 4,891
2051 17.14 20.10 2013 4,864
2052 16.84 19.67 1936 4,835
2053 16.54 19.23 1860 4,807
2054 16.24 18.81 1784 4,777
2055 15.94 18.38 1710 4,746
2056 15.65 17.96 1636 4,715
2057 15.36 17.55 1564 4,683
2058 15.08 17.14 1493 4,650
2059 14.80 16.74 1424 4,617
2060 14.52 16.35 1357 4,583
2061 14.25 15.96 1291 4,549
2062 13.99 15.58 1227 4,513
2063 13.72 15.20 1166 4,478
2064 13.46 14.83 1106 4,441
2065 13.21 14.47 1048 4,404
2066 12.96 14.12 992 4,367
2067 12.71 13.77 938 4,329
2068 12.47 13.43 887 4,291
2069 12.23 13.09 837 4,252
2070 12.00 12.76 790 4,213
2071 11.77 12.44 744 4,173
2072 11.54 12.13 701 4,134
2073 11.32 11.82 660 4,093
2074 11.10 11.52 620 4,053
2075 10.89 11.22 583 4,012
2076 10.68 10.94 547 3,971
2077 10.47 10.66 513 3,930
2078 10.27 10.38 481 3,888
2079 10.07 10.11 451 3,847
2080 9.87 9.85 422 3,805
2081 9.68 9.60 395 3,763
2082 9.49 9.35 370 3,721
2083 9.31 9.10 345 3,679
2084 9.12 8.86 323 3,636
2085 8.95 8.63 301 3,594
2086 8.77 8.40 281 3,551
2087 8.60 8.18 262 3,509
2088 8.43 7.97 244 3,467
2089 8.27 7.76 228 3,424
2090 8.10 7.55 212 3,382
2091 7.95 7.35 197 3,339
2092 7.79 7.16 184 3,297
2093 7.64 6.97 171 3,255
2094 7.49 6.78 159 3,213
2095 7.34 6.60 148 3,171
2096 7.20 6.43 137 3,129
2097 7.05 6.26 128 3,087
2098 6.91 6.09 118 3,046
2099 6.78 5.93 110 3,005 ')
year
oil 2008 peak gb
oil 2015 peak gb
nat gas mcm
coal tons
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '2004 28.09 29.35 2757 5,014
2005 28.20 29.73 2815 5,036
2006 28.27 30.07 2871 5,057
2007 28.32 30.39 2926 5,077
2008 28.35 30.67 2979 5,095
2009 28.34 30.92 3030 5,113
2010 28.31 31.14 3079 5,130
2011 28.26 31.32 3126 5,146
2012 28.19 31.47 3170 5,161
2013 28.09 31.59 3211 5,174
2014 27.97 31.68 3249 5,187
2015 27.83 31.73 3284 5,198
2016 27.67 31.75 3316 5,208
2017 27.50 31.74 3344 5,218
2018 27.30 31.70 3368 5,226
2019 27.09 31.62 3389 5,232
2020 26.87 31.52 3405 5,238
2021 26.63 31.39 3417 5,243
2022 26.38 31.23 3425 5,246
2023 26.12 31.04 3428 5,249
2024 25.84 30.83 3427 5,250
2025 25.56 30.59 3422 5,250
2026 25.27 30.33 3412 5,249
2027 24.97 30.05 3397 5,246
2028 24.66 29.75 3378 5,243
2029 24.35 29.43 3354 5,238
2030 24.03 29.09 3326 5,232
2031 23.71 28.74 3294 5,226
2032 23.39 28.37 3257 5,218
2033 23.06 27.98 3216 5,208
2034 22.72 27.59 3171 5,198
2035 22.39 27.18 3122 5,187
2036 22.06 26.77 3070 5,174
2037 21.72 26.35 3014 5,161
2038 21.38 25.92 2955 5,146
2039 21.05 25.48 2893 5,130
2040 20.71 25.04 2829 5,113
2041 20.38 24.59 2762 5,095
2042 20.04 24.14 2692 5,077
2043 19.71 23.69 2621 5,057
2044 19.38 23.24 2548 5,036
2045 19.05 22.79 2474 5,014
2046 18.73 22.34 2398 4,991
2047 18.41 21.89 2322 4,968
2048 18.09 21.44 2245 4,943
2049 17.77 20.99 2168 4,917
2050 17.46 20.55 2090 4,891
2051 17.14 20.10 2013 4,864
2052 16.84 19.67 1936 4,835
2053 16.54 19.23 1860 4,807
2054 16.24 18.81 1784 4,777
2055 15.94 18.38 1710 4,746
2056 15.65 17.96 1636 4,715
2057 15.36 17.55 1564 4,683
2058 15.08 17.14 1493 4,650
2059 14.80 16.74 1424 4,617
2060 14.52 16.35 1357 4,583
2061 14.25 15.96 1291 4,549
2062 13.99 15.58 1227 4,513
2063 13.72 15.20 1166 4,478
2064 13.46 14.83 1106 4,441
2065 13.21 14.47 1048 4,404
2066 12.96 14.12 992 4,367
2067 12.71 13.77 938 4,329
2068 12.47 13.43 887 4,291
2069 12.23 13.09 837 4,252
2070 12.00 12.76 790 4,213
2071 11.77 12.44 744 4,173
2072 11.54 12.13 701 4,134
2073 11.32 11.82 660 4,093
2074 11.10 11.52 620 4,053
2075 10.89 11.22 583 4,012
2076 10.68 10.94 547 3,971
2077 10.47 10.66 513 3,930
2078 10.27 10.38 481 3,888
2079 10.07 10.11 451 3,847
2080 9.87 9.85 422 3,805
2081 9.68 9.60 395 3,763
2082 9.49 9.35 370 3,721
2083 9.31 9.10 345 3,679
2084 9.12 8.86 323 3,636
2085 8.95 8.63 301 3,594
2086 8.77 8.40 281 3,551
2087 8.60 8.18 262 3,509
2088 8.43 7.97 244 3,467
2089 8.27 7.76 228 3,424
2090 8.10 7.55 212 3,382
2091 7.95 7.35 197 3,339
2092 7.79 7.16 184 3,297
2093 7.64 6.97 171 3,255
2094 7.49 6.78 159 3,213
2095 7.34 6.60 148 3,171
2096 7.20 6.43 137 3,129
2097 7.05 6.26 128 3,087
2098 6.91 6.09 118 3,046
2099 6.78 5.93 110 3,005 ')
-
pup55 - Light Sweet Crude
- Posts: 5249
- Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
by Taskforce_Unity » Wed 26 Jan 2005, 04:37:29
Nice, were are you're figures from for gas and coal reserves?
The hubbert coal peak was scheduled around 2032 your peak is around 2025. And weren't gas reserves credited to be somewhere around 6000 Mcm? According to IEA ofcourse so i have no clue if this is credible or not. Are these Laherrere gas figures?
I'll start working on my stuff on friday, got some spare time for it this weekend.
The hubbert coal peak was scheduled around 2032 your peak is around 2025. And weren't gas reserves credited to be somewhere around 6000 Mcm? According to IEA ofcourse so i have no clue if this is credible or not. Are these Laherrere gas figures?
I'll start working on my stuff on friday, got some spare time for it this weekend.
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Taskforce_Unity - Coal
- Posts: 479
- Joined: Mon 22 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: Holland
by pup55 » Tue 01 Feb 2005, 12:13:11
The gas reserves per the model above are currently 178.15 tcm. This value makes the curve fit best. The peak date and URR for gas of 262 tcm are from Campbell. The BP energy review estimates current reserves of 175.15 tcm, so I am not ready to say this is too far off.
For coal, the value in the model for current reserves above is 613488 mt, which also makes the model fit best. The BP energy review value is 984,453 mt.
The curve below is adjusted to give a current reserve value of 1,115,000 mt which is closer and does a little better with the current productioin which is 5100 mt/yr, and gives the same peak. I don't know too much about coal. Unlike for oil, the curve is so flat it is hard to model.
If you have a better source of data no problem to make a new curve.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Year
2004 5,177.41
2005 5,183.66
2006 5,189.64
2007 5,195.35
2008 5,200.77
2009 5,205.92
2010 5,210.79
2011 5,215.38
2012 5,219.68
2013 5,223.70
2014 5,227.44
2015 5,230.90
2016 5,234.07
2017 5,236.95
2018 5,239.55
2019 5,241.86
2020 5,243.88
2021 5,245.61
2022 5,247.06
2023 5,248.22
2024 5,249.08
2025 5,249.66
2026 5,249.95
2027 5,249.95
2028 5,249.66
2029 5,249.08
2030 5,248.22
2031 5,247.06
2032 5,245.61
2033 5,243.88
2034 5,241.86
2035 5,239.55
2036 5,236.95
2037 5,234.07
2038 5,230.90
2039 5,227.44
2040 5,223.70
2041 5,219.68
2042 5,215.38
2043 5,210.79
2044 5,205.92
2045 5,200.77
2046 5,195.35
2047 5,189.64
2048 5,183.66
2049 5,177.41
2050 5,170.88
2051 5,164.08
2052 5,157.01
2053 5,149.67
2054 5,142.06
2055 5,134.19
2056 5,126.05
2057 5,117.65
2058 5,108.99
2059 5,100.06
2060 5,090.89
2061 5,081.45
2062 5,071.77
2063 5,061.83
2064 5,051.65
2065 5,041.21
2066 5,030.54
2067 5,019.62
2068 5,008.45
2069 4,997.06
2070 4,985.42
2071 4,973.56
2072 4,961.46
2073 4,949.13
2074 4,936.58
2075 4,923.80
2076 4,910.81
2077 4,897.59
2078 4,884.16
2079 4,870.52
2080 4,856.66
2081 4,842.60
2082 4,828.34
2083 4,813.87
2084 4,799.20
2085 4,784.34
2086 4,769.28
2087 4,754.03
2088 4,738.59
2089 4,722.97
2090 4,707.17
2091 4,691.19
2092 4,675.03
2093 4,658.70
2094 4,642.20
2095 4,625.53
2096 4,608.70
2097 4,591.71
2098 4,574.56
2099 4,557.25 ')
For coal, the value in the model for current reserves above is 613488 mt, which also makes the model fit best. The BP energy review value is 984,453 mt.
The curve below is adjusted to give a current reserve value of 1,115,000 mt which is closer and does a little better with the current productioin which is 5100 mt/yr, and gives the same peak. I don't know too much about coal. Unlike for oil, the curve is so flat it is hard to model.
If you have a better source of data no problem to make a new curve.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Year
2004 5,177.41
2005 5,183.66
2006 5,189.64
2007 5,195.35
2008 5,200.77
2009 5,205.92
2010 5,210.79
2011 5,215.38
2012 5,219.68
2013 5,223.70
2014 5,227.44
2015 5,230.90
2016 5,234.07
2017 5,236.95
2018 5,239.55
2019 5,241.86
2020 5,243.88
2021 5,245.61
2022 5,247.06
2023 5,248.22
2024 5,249.08
2025 5,249.66
2026 5,249.95
2027 5,249.95
2028 5,249.66
2029 5,249.08
2030 5,248.22
2031 5,247.06
2032 5,245.61
2033 5,243.88
2034 5,241.86
2035 5,239.55
2036 5,236.95
2037 5,234.07
2038 5,230.90
2039 5,227.44
2040 5,223.70
2041 5,219.68
2042 5,215.38
2043 5,210.79
2044 5,205.92
2045 5,200.77
2046 5,195.35
2047 5,189.64
2048 5,183.66
2049 5,177.41
2050 5,170.88
2051 5,164.08
2052 5,157.01
2053 5,149.67
2054 5,142.06
2055 5,134.19
2056 5,126.05
2057 5,117.65
2058 5,108.99
2059 5,100.06
2060 5,090.89
2061 5,081.45
2062 5,071.77
2063 5,061.83
2064 5,051.65
2065 5,041.21
2066 5,030.54
2067 5,019.62
2068 5,008.45
2069 4,997.06
2070 4,985.42
2071 4,973.56
2072 4,961.46
2073 4,949.13
2074 4,936.58
2075 4,923.80
2076 4,910.81
2077 4,897.59
2078 4,884.16
2079 4,870.52
2080 4,856.66
2081 4,842.60
2082 4,828.34
2083 4,813.87
2084 4,799.20
2085 4,784.34
2086 4,769.28
2087 4,754.03
2088 4,738.59
2089 4,722.97
2090 4,707.17
2091 4,691.19
2092 4,675.03
2093 4,658.70
2094 4,642.20
2095 4,625.53
2096 4,608.70
2097 4,591.71
2098 4,574.56
2099 4,557.25 ')
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pup55 - Light Sweet Crude
- Posts: 5249
- Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
by khebab » Tue 01 Feb 2005, 14:23:23
I don't know if it is useful for you but the last OCDE report have put their economical forecast model in annexe. They made some oil price predictions based on different scenarios.
OCDE report
OCDE report
- khebab
- Tar Sands
- Posts: 899
- Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
- Location: Canada
by Taskforce_Unity » Fri 04 Feb 2005, 02:01:30
Wow great OCDE report! Thx, this will help
I', now studying the hubbert formula's when i have some spare time. They are at Die-Off.org at the Laherrere article.
I', now studying the hubbert formula's when i have some spare time. They are at Die-Off.org at the Laherrere article.
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Taskforce_Unity - Coal
- Posts: 479
- Joined: Mon 22 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: Holland
by Taskforce_Unity » Tue 08 Feb 2005, 12:29:44
Well i have a lack of time at the moment. Il put the basis online at the end of february.
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Taskforce_Unity - Coal
- Posts: 479
- Joined: Mon 22 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: Holland
by Wildwell » Tue 08 Feb 2005, 13:13:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'W')ell i have a lack of time at the moment. Il put the basis online at the end of february.
Well done for doing this.
One thing that needs to be considered is what is needed and what isn't. For example, people might like to have foreign holidays, but are they needed?
Next, replacement technology: It might be possible to replace some of the distribution chains and import/export lines. Technologies like the internet can reduce the need to travel and so on.
My personal belief is a lot of the waste that goes on won't be about to be tolerated, it is only tolerated now because it’s affordable.
The biggest issues are around:
Agriculture
Transport
Water supply
Urban planning
For example I don't honestly expect to see a soft landing with respect to some of the private transport requirements we have now or over farming/faming subsidies and so on.
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Wildwell - Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1962
- Joined: Thu 03 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
- Location: UK
by Taskforce_Unity » Wed 09 Feb 2005, 11:18:36
Hmmz switched my plans, it will take a while longer but will be a lot better. I'm cooperating with my dad. We're going to make a decline model based on various inputs. Thus not the hubbert curve formule or gauss derived but one with a bumpy slope involving economy, ecology, energy and other things.
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Taskforce_Unity - Coal
- Posts: 479
- Joined: Mon 22 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: Holland
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