by DantesPeak » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 17:01:37
The effect of speculation on the oil market is not clear, since theoretically, each buyer of a futures contract has a seller on the other side. Often called a zero sum game, unless one of the futures participants is actually buying, selling, or holding physical oil, futures’ trading has almost no effect on price in the long run. Now if someone intended to buy oil and store in some location, they could start that process by buying contracts and eventually take delivery. That could disrupt markets – but we haven’t seen much, if any, accumulation of oil at any storage point.
On the other point, Saudi Arabia may be playing a double game here. It gives favorable discounts on Arab Heavy crude oil only to the US, and before long, oil inventories in the US are “comfortable”. Meanwhile total world crude inventories have been falling since 2005 – yet almost no one except POers even notices that fact.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.