[TorrKing]

A press release today is reporting a fall in our oil production in March by over 10% compared to the same month last year. An even bigger drop is expected in April, partly due to maintainance on several installations.



Torjus Gaaren

[WebHubbleTelescope]

That last chart doesn't show the historical peak, which apparently occurred around 2001


Different units but the latest puts it at around 0.8 bbls/year on the chart above.

[Sleepybag]

It seems today's news confirms that Norway is declining 10% since last year:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schlumberger', '[')b]Norway May Oil Output Dn to 2.38M B/D
Thu, Jun 8, 2006 11:27 GMT

OSLO - Norwegian crude production in May was down around 270,000 barrels a day at 2.38 million barrels a day from the same month last year, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate said Thursday.

Output from the world's third largest oil exporter has been declining from a peak production in 2000-2001 due to maturing fields and lack of reserve replacement.

May output was up 158,000 b/d from April production at 2.222 million b/d. The agency said May's figures were preliminary, with the final calculation to be published in July.

Total output from the Norwegian Continental Shelf for April, including natural gas, condensate and natural gas liquids, was 125.8 million barrels.

Rune Hult at the NPD said maintenance during April helped to pulled output down on the month, and although May production was up, it was likely to fall with significant maintenance in June.

Statoil ASA (STO) - the biggest operator on the Norwegian Continental Shelf - will have eight oil and gas facilities undergoing maintenance in June, including the massive Statfjord, Troll and Sleipner fields.

© 2006 Dow Jones Newswires.

[pup55]

This report is worse than the 2.6 mbd projected last year about this time, and is slightly more pessimistic than the Sprott report.

Where is a cornucopian when you need one? We need an explanation as to how, with oil at $70, oil is not magically being brought up from the bottom of the North Sea.

[seahorse2]

The cornucopians are in Saudi Arabia telling us there's not enough demand and therefore production is dropping

[xarkz]

I see on a news site here that Norway is going to try to maintain 1mbpd production until 2015 with "new technology and discoveries". Search for oil in unexplored areas in the Barent and North sea will be rushed.

Also here:
http://today.reuters.com/business/newsArticle.aspx?type=naturalResources&storyID=nL14815492

Statoil extends Norway production goal to 2015

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')It extended by five years its ambition of keeping Norwegian output at 1 million barrels a day until 2015, and reiterated its targets to produce 1.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day on average worldwide in 2006 and 1.4 million boed in 2007.
..
"We now believe that it may be possible to extend our plateau production on the Norwegian continental shelf until 2015," Statoil ASA said.

Statoil's gas chief Rune Bjoernson said that the company was now more sure than before of its ambition of doubling gas output by 2015 to 50 billion cubic metres annually.

[SoothSayer]

To be honest, I don't really care about Norwegian oil ... it's part of the global oil picture.

However I find that Norway's natural gas is far more important ... the UK really, really needs that to be available for as long as possible.

If Norway cannot - or will not - deliver the natural gas the UK needs then we could become a third world country more quickly than most would expect.

[TorrKing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'T')o be honest, I don't really care about Norwegian oil ... it's part of the global oil picture.

However I find that Norway's natural gas is far more important ... the UK really, really needs that to be available for as long as possible.

If Norway cannot - or will not - deliver the natural gas the UK needs then we could become a third world country more quickly than most would expect.

[mekrob]

If NG is the main concern, then what is it's production curve? How bad is the depletion? I thought I read somewhere on here that the UK North Sea was experiencing more than 10% depletion rate (even higher than oil's dep rate). How's Norway holding up?

Everyone says that Norway is a safe bet for being a major exporter because of high production and low use (7% of oil production). But wait until 2010 when production is down 1/3 and then 2020 when production is down to 1/6 of its peak. Somewhere in between Norway will get smart and make it very hard to export most of that oil, me hopes.

[TorrKing]

As far as I know there is yet no confirmed peak on NG in Norway.

Torjus Gaaren

[SoothSayer]

There is more than you ever wanted to know about Nowegian gas production at Ormen Lange here

See page 45 of the PDF to see the production profile.

Ramping up from 2007 it peaks at 2010, and starts to decline at 2014.

Peak supply volume is 22.4 GSM3/annum (GSM=giga standard cubic meter)

This rate will fall to 50% in 2024.

The pipework can supply the UK ... and Europe! This means that the UK could be outbid for gas at some point.

The UK pipeline capacity will be able to take the peak production rate if required ... and if offered by Norway!

The UK consumes about 100 GSM3/annum, so Norway can supply maybe 20% of the UK's current needs.

The UK gas energy gap is shown below:


Note: This graph is a bit old - does anyone have a newer version ... I suspect the UK decline rates are worse than shown above.

The UK gas won't decline to 20% shortfall until about 2010, so the Norwegian rampup ties in well.

Assuming we take ALL the Nowegian output we will not need any other imports until 2010 ... although I'm sure we will be receiving less than the full 100% from Norway, so we shall still be taking some LNG and Dutch gas before 2010.

After 2010 the story get more interesting ... the UK will have to find a LOT of new gas ... Russia? LNG?

Norway slowly starts dropping out of the supply story after 2014 too.

It's all a bit scary .. don't forget that Peak Oil and other natural gas shortages will start appearing globally during the next few years too.

If the Norway fields expire early or if the Russian giant fields don't come on line as planned ... eek!

Update: It seems that the key LNG supplier, Qatar, is having doubts about reserves. This extract come from http://www.odac-info.org/

" The surging demand for Qatar's natural gas and the long list of projects awaiting supplies have prompted senior officials in the country's energy sector to argue for a long-term freeze on new commitments. The indications are that many would-be customers for Qatari gas will be left disappointed." In a report (PDF, 227 Kb) published in April 2006, Simmons and Co International state: "The country’s 77 mmtpa (10.3 bcfed) of planned [natural gas] liquefaction capacity is already fully committed for a period of 25 years with additional would be buyers waiting for an allotment of supply." In other words, if you have not already signed contracts to receive Qatari natural gas, then you are unlikely to get any, any time soon. In mid-May, in an article entitled US, Canada to take 50% of world LNG supply by 2015, Platts stated: "On the supply side, although there are many new projects scheduled to come onstream by 2010, almost 90% of the new production capacity has already been committed, Avgerinos [Poten & Partners' general manager of LNG/Gas consulting] noted." So for the next 4 years there will be little spare Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) from anywhere. Avgerinos was quoted as saying there will be "very, very, very tight supply".

The UK and US could have problems with their required LNG supplies.

More generally, every time I turn over a stone in the global energy puzzle, I seem to find another problem ...

[pup55]

http://peakoil.com/fortopic34860.html

Update:




thanks to KevO from the Current News page