[yull]

I think if production is flat for another year, next year will be the year when things will start to get hit quite hard. The inventories and stocks we are depleting to make up for the stagnant production can only last so long. I think $150 a barrel next year, and recession by 2009.

Once the world economy slips into negative GDP growth, the long, great decline will begin, never to completely recover.

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yull', 'I') think if production is flat for another year, next year will be the year when things will start to get hit quite hard. The inventories and stocks we are depleting to make up for the stagnant production can only last so long. I think $150 a barrel next year, and recession by 2009.

Once the world economy slips into negative GDP growth, the long, great decline will begin, never to completely recover.

[mekrob]

So this means we probably have about a year to maybe 5 left before production starts to take a major hit (5%+) and then things get really fun. This is of course without war with Iran or an extended war in Northern Iraq. Any war with Iran or greater ME war will simply exacerbate the situation, as will any situation with Venezuela, Russia, China, India, etc.

Maybe a hard recession can actually save us, if it hits us fast enough. Then we won't have the capabilities to ramp up more production for SUV's and planes to S. America for strawberries. Instead, that oil will stay in the ground longer which can later be used for fertilizer and such, stuff that we actually "need".

So much for my year of 2012 or '13. Only off by half a decade. I'm too much of an optimist for reality, I guess.

[mel1962]

The August 2007 figure has come in at 83,920! That is a very scarry figure, no wonder the price is skyrocketing! 8O

July 2007 has been adjusted down to 84,887 down from the previously estimate of 84,954! So far, July is the high for 2007 and August is nealy 1.5 million off the peak of July '06!

I believe the supply numbers for the rest of the year will be the real test!

[Dan1195]

I have been wondering about the apparent descrepancy between predicted all liquids peak in 2010-2011 from ASPO and the Megaprojects report, and the "apparent" peak in July 2006 followed by slow decline despite a continuing increase in price and lack for major supply dispution (i.e. embargo)

It is a matter of enough new production in deepwater, NGL, etc. coming online in next 2-3 years to bump up production? Or is it we are in a long plateau for 4-5 years. I suspect that the final all liquids peak has not occurred yet, though evidence of a 2005 Crude peak is continuing to get stronger, since much of what is coming online in the next 2-3 years is not considers "regular" crude oil.

[drew]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'P')S: the reason I used a big font is because I have a very small P-ness

[Niagara]

I was watching Cramer's "Mad Money" the other night. He had on the show the CEO of Foster Wheeler, I forget his name.

He was saying one of their client's is Saudi Aramco who plans to increase their oil production by 1/3 in the next few years. The guy seemed pretty credible and Foster Wheeler has been an incredible turnaround story.

So if that's true, who knows? Maybe PO is still ahead but I doubt it will be far off. I think it's more likely that KSA will only be able to extend the plateau somewhat.

[yull]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dan1195', 'I') have been wondering about the apparent descrepancy between predicted all liquids peak in 2010-2011 from ASPO and the Megaprojects report, and the "apparent" peak in July 2006 followed by slow decline despite a continuing increase in price and lack for major supply dispution (i.e. embargo)

It is a matter of enough new production in deepwater, NGL, etc. coming online in next 2-3 years to bump up production? Or is it we are in a long plateau for 4-5 years. I suspect that the final all liquids peak has not occurred yet, though evidence of a 2005 Crude peak is continuing to get stronger, since much of what is coming online in the next 2-3 years is not considers "regular" crude oil.

[RedStateGreen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', ' ')So far, July is the high for 2007 and August is nealy 1.5 million off the peak of July '06!

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', 'I') was watching Cramer's "Mad Money" the other night. He had on the show the CEO of Foster Wheeler, I forget his name.

He was saying one of their client's is Saudi Aramco who plans to increase their oil production by 1/3 in the next few years. The guy seemed pretty credible and Foster Wheeler has been an incredible turnaround story.

So if that's true, who knows? Maybe PO is still ahead but I doubt it will be far off. I think it's more likely that KSA will only be able to extend the plateau somewhat.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', 'I') was watching Cramer's "Mad Money" the other night. He had on the show the CEO of Foster Wheeler, I forget his name.

He was saying one of their client's is Saudi Aramco who plans to increase their oil production by 1/3 in the next few years. The guy seemed pretty credible and Foster Wheeler has been an incredible turnaround story.

So if that's true, who knows? Maybe PO is still ahead but I doubt it will be far off. I think it's more likely that KSA will only be able to extend the plateau somewhat.

[DantesPeak]

The Saudis also have some natural gas to liquid capacity, and natural gas. Possibly when converting everything to a barrels of oil equivalent basis, they might be near the 10.8 mbpd - although I have not added up the figures or seen a presentation like this. Perhaps rocdoc123 or someone else knows?

[mel1962]

I just checked the monthly update on the EIA site and July '06 continues to be the peak!

2006 January 84,560
February 84,501
March 84,060
April 84,417
May 84,241
June 84,128
July 85,467
August 85,197
September 84,745
October 85,046
November 84,576
December 84,205
2006 Average 84,597

2007 January E 84,113
February E 84,338
March E 84,083
April E 84,594
May E 84,280
June E 84,430
July E 84,866
August E 83,888
September PE 84,929
9 Month Avg 84,389

The preliminary estimate for September is almost 1 million over August in '07, it will be interesting to see October, November and December. September is still 1/2 million short of the peak and the yearly average is about 200,000 barrels under 2006. I have feeling they will not break the peak month of July '06!

[TheDude]

IEA is claiming 86.5 mb/d.

OMR

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')EA is claiming 86.5 mb/d.

OMR

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '.')..
the may 2005 peak of "conventional" oil doesn't include offshore and tar sands production and oil associated liquids;...

[TheDude]

Dunno but I was at Borders tonight and checked out Peter Huber's book The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy, and I feel great!

Found this too, promises to be a hoot: Cornucopians - A Guide for the Perplexed

[mel1962]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '.')..
the may 2005 peak of "conventional" oil doesn't include offshore and tar sands production and oil associated liquids;...

[mel1962]

Well, we have a new high, its a preliminary estimate for Oct '07 of 85,605 versus July '06 of 65,467 so it looks like an increase of 138k. Will this be the new record or the beginning of a "true" production increase!

[LastViking]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', 'W')ell, we have a new high, its a preliminary estimate for Oct '07 of 85,605 versus July '06 of 65,467 so it looks like an increase of 138k. Will this be the new record or the beginning of a "true" production increase!