[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'D')oesn't the Haber-Bosch process require natural gas in order to be produced economically, or at least relatively inexpensively?

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'l')orenzo, Dezakin, JD, I don't believe any of you cornies or technocornies bothered to read what I wrote. It doesn't matter that phosphorus is everywhere. The problem is that it is nowhere in the necessary concentration to support agriculture. It always must be imported and every exporter is running out.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')So how would you "extract" it from a rock consisting of 98% of CaCO3 and 2% Ca3 (PO4)2 ?

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'l')orenzo, Dezakin, JD, I don't believe any of you cornies or technocornies bothered to read what I wrote. It doesn't matter that phosphorus is everywhere. The problem is that it is nowhere in the necessary concentration to support agriculture. It always must be imported and every exporter is running out.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '
')So that leaves us with potassium - ehe.

Nice try, dudes.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')o Peak Phosphorus is a very real and growing (or not growing, no pun intended) problem indeed. World production peaked in the early 1990's at 162,000 metric tons/year and is now closer to 140,000/year.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')No, that leaves us with Lorenzo who does not know much about phosphorus chemistry and also believes that some sort of recycling order will deal with global phosphorus depletion.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'S')o the question is, if phosphorus fertilizer is to be 50 times more expensive, will farmers be able to afford it?
And if they do, how much food will cost?

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')No, that leaves us with Lorenzo who does not know much about phosphorus chemistry and also believes that some sort of recycling order will deal with global phosphorus depletion.

[efarmer]

And so it goes, the phosphorous we belch into the ocean blooms in algae and sinks as plant skeletal remains to lay on the bottom and wait out a tectonic fling back up sometime for a return engagement.
This is another long term mineral process loop like petroleum indeed.

On a lighter note, Pstarr sure gives good lip lashing. When I read some of his energetic posts, I often hear the voice of Jack Nicholson saying the words in my mind. You know the "you can't handle the truth" voice. I happen to agree with him often, but I sure hope I never end up getting the hot tongue and cold shoulder from him. (Go back a couple pages on this thread and pretend Jack is reading the post about getting the human waste out to the fields using you bicycle.)

[buzzard]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'P')heba,
OK you gave us some good ideas about the subject.
However how all that was done in the past?
At the beginning of XIX century there was still about 1 billion peoples on the world and no synthetic fertilizer at all.
How these were fed?

NB. You insist that poop based fertilizer could feed 300 millions at most.

[frankthetank]

I wonder what will happen when the non doomers on this site go to the grocery store and its empty? Who will the blame? What technology will get them more food?

If you bred a non doomer with a doomer what would be the result? A mutant hybrid of some type?

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'S')o the question is, if phosphorus fertilizer is to be 50 times more expensive, will farmers be able to afford it?
And if they do, how much food will cost?

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'S')o the question is, if phosphorus fertilizer is to be 50 times more expensive, will farmers be able to afford it?
And if they do, how much food will cost?

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I')t calls to mine 50 times as much of rock, then crush this 50-fold amount and then 50 times as much sulfuric acid would have to be used due to basic chemical constrains.
Those are basic "inputs" to price.
This calls for roughly 50 fold price increase.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'E')nergyUnlimited thank you for the chemistry lesson. I only wish I remembered enough to make sense of it.

[efarmer]

When I read the USGS footnotes on Reserve and Reserve Base definitions, you see that they are indicating what portion of the resource is recoverable with present technology and economics
(ignoring other gating factors) as well as the larger endowment of the mineral that meets minimum characteristics to possibly be useful with current or future technology.

I hope a geologist chimes in, but my impression is that the industry is predicting 50% or less of the Reserve subset of the total Reserve Base phosphate rock will be exploited before it is uneconomic or untenable to exploit the balance for various reasons. The simple math of 150 million tons x 60 years seems to support the often quoted 40 to 60 year time line. For example, we could exploit Florida for much more phosphate than we do, if we are willing to give up the watersheds and other life supporting attributes that Florida needs for other purposes, like people, agriculture, etc.

Let's hope some phosphate mine geologist out of Carolina or Florida jumps in here soon and lays us down some inside skinny.

[PhebaAndThePilgrim]

Good day from Pheba, from the farm:
Energy Unltd., thank you for your interest in my post. I am not as technically savvy as some so I do not post often. I do know farming as I have been involved in agriculture in one form or another for decades.
Buzzard and others answered your question for the most part.
I highly reccomend a study of the history of guano production. The history is fascinating and weird.
Here is an interesting fact to ponder. When our ancestors first stepped foot on the soil of this continent a farmer could stick a shovel in the earth and find 12 to 24 inches of topsoil.
Today the average topsoil depth is 4 to 6 inches. Think about it. We feed billions of people with 4 to 6 inches of topsoil.
I believe it was Richard Heinberg who said that farming is just pouring petroleum on the ground to create food.
I forget the exact detail on this next fact, so somebody can verify for me. But if memory serves I believe it takes earthworms about 500 years to make from 1/2 inch to 1 inch of topsoil.
So I gues we could call topsoil a renewable resource.
But that sure isn't going to save us.
the 160 acres that we raise our cattle on was a crop farm for many years. My husband cropped it until the land played out and his equipment wore out. Prior to my husband's ownership the land went through decades of grazing and cropping in one form or another. The land is just played out. Our farm is similar to most in the state. (and the nation)
We carefully manage the cattle to prevent overgrazing and erosion. We practice intense grazing management. We have the property divided up into small pasture and rotate the cattle heavily during high grazing seasons. We use old big bales, and anything else can find to use in ditches and other places on the farm where we find erosion.
We raise beef cattle to help support us while letting the ground rest and hopefully create a small amount of topsoil during our lifetime. Hopefully we can leave the place a little better than we found it. My husband has worked tirelessly for years to build this farm into something better.
He has planted more trees than I care to think about, and tries to create wildlife areas.
He has planted native grasses, but that is a struggle because the K31 fescue that was imported decades ago has a tendency to crowd out native plants.
This doesn't mean that it is hopeless. But, it does mean that we can not feed 6.6 billion people for much longer.
The one billion people that were fed before petro agriculture were fed from topsoil that was not completely degraded. They were fed with water from water sources that were not being depleted. Check the condition of the two great water aquafers. They were fed from soil that was not chemically depleted of all micronutrients.
And this is important. They were fed utilizing a much higher percentage of the population involved in farming. I don't have the figures before me, but in the year 1900 there were still a lot of people living in rural area. Most of these folk were involved in food production in one way or another.
Today less than two percent of Americans are farmers. Most people that live in rural areas live in house trailers, drive to the city, and their extent of livestock consists of several half starved horses and some rangy looking dogs.
However, that total doomer porn being stated, there is some small glimmer of hope. I highly reccomend a DVD called "The Real Dirt on Farmer John". I have eagerly been awaiting the release of this documentary on DVD. The DVD was released today, and can be purchased at a web site called Angelic Organics.
If you are interested in a method of farming that just may save us, I highly reccomend this DVD.
Pheba, from the farm.
PS. When my husband retires we have plans to expand and diversify our farm. We are planning on raising chickens, utilizing chicken tractors. We can move the tractors into fields the cattle have recently vacated. The chickens scratch in the cattle manure, consuming pest insects, and other nutritious matter, while increasing field fertility.
The problem most farmers have today is time and money. The age old problem. When a person has the money, they usually don't have the time and vice versa. Right now hubby still works. He is a carpenter. he just doesn't have the time, and I can't manage chickens by myself.
We raise blackberries, and hubby spends hours all summer picking them. The only problem I find with blackberries is that I can not hang out my laundry. The birds eat some of the berries and dive bomb my laundry. they have a habit of targeting the most expensive item on the clothesline.