"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
The market was really expecting--wanting--50bp on the FFT, and at least 50 on the DW. This will not bode well for anyone who went long over the past six weeks.
Lumps of coal for Wall Street. Ben played Scrooge today. Good for him.
What a cockup only moving 25 bps, everything you don't do now you have to do in such increased measure a few months down the road! Ah, but Ben is after the interests of the rich and, as I have said in other places, inflationary moves are not in the interests of the rich. Look, all of you hyperinflation doomers, the system let the country slide into deflation in the 30's even though they knew that it would be bad. The policies taken will always reflect the condition of the rich (read wealthy and not nec. illuminati and such). They will try their hardest to induce deflation until the country rises up and threatens to toss them from power, well, practically. Bernanke needs to feel some pressure before he makes any big moves. He also needs to know that he has sufficiently telegraphed any moves that could result in a sea change. His ass is hanging on the line if he doesn't.
I believe that history will judge the failure today harshly.
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."
Deflation is now a fait accompli. Actually they could have cut 450bp and deflation would still have been a fait accompli. The coming bust will more than equal the recent boom.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh.
Voting against was Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to lower the target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at this meeting.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'A')h, but Ben is after the interests of the rich and, as I have said in other places, inflationary moves are not in the interests of the rich.
I disagree quite strongly with this. Inflation benefits those closest to the source of money (remember good 'ol trickle down economics).
The line up for the little piggies at the trough starts with:
Banks
Government
Hedge funds
Large independent investment houses/individuals
The ones at the back of the line are:
Regulated investors (pensions/mutual funds)
Non-investment institutions (hospitals, municipalities)
retail investors
Joe six pack
Todays mistake will just be another side bar note in a long list of mistakes that started in 1987 when Greenspan took the helm (at the beginning of the Kondrieff winter)
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '[')url=http://www.denninger.net/images/bear_attack_no50.jpg]Image NOT SAFE FOR WORK[/url]
That is hilarious!
"It is certain that free societies would have no easy time in a future dark age. The rapid return to universal penury will be accomplished by violence and cruelties of a kind now forgotten." - Roberto Vacca, The Coming Dark Age
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday cut a key interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.25 percent, the third rate reduction in three months, in an effort to prevent the economy from sliding into recession.
Since Sept. 18, the central bank has lowered the federal funds rate, the interest rate that commercial banks charge each other on overnight loans, by a combined 1 percentage point.
As a result of the latest action, commercial banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans, will drop by a corresponding amount to 7.25 percent, once again giving borrowers some breathing room.
Meanwhile, the Fed cut its discount rate, the interest it charges to make direct loans to banks, by a quarter percentage point as well to 4.75 percent on Tuesday.
The reduction in discount rate was aimed at encouraging banks to borrow more freely from the central bank at a time when there are worries that rising bad loans will prompt banks to tighten credit conditions too severely.
After cutting the federal funds rate by a half-point on Sept. 11 and a quarter-point on Oct. 31, the Fed hinted that those two reductions might be enough to stabilize the financial markets and beat back the threat of a recession.
Credit has become harder to obtain, however, while market turbulence increased and the housing slump has intensified. Fears of a recession are growing.
In a brief statement announcing the third rate reduction, the Fed said that "incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending."
Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks, added the statement.
The Fed hoped that the latest action, combined with the policy actions taken earlier, should help promote moderate growth over time.
"Recent developments, including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic growth and inflation," the statement said.
It vowed that the central bank will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will "act as needed" to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.
The Fed vote for the rate cut was 9 to 1 with Eric S. Rosengren dissenting, arguing for a bigger, half-point cut in the funds rate.
About inflation, the statement said that "readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but elevated energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation."
In this context, the Fed judges that "some inflation risks remain," and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
The latest rate cut came even as the economic growth rate accelerated in the third quarter.
The Commerce Department's revised data showed that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the July-to-September period, the fastest pace in the past 4 years.
The gain in gross domestic product was up from a 3.8 percent pace recorded in the second quarter and exceeded the 3.9 percent growth rate estimated originally.
However, the overriding worry for the Fed is that the housing slump, the worst in two decades, and tightening credit could seriously crimp spending and investing by people and businesses, dealing a dangerous blow to the economy.
The Fed on Nov. 20 slashed its forecast for the nation's economic growth to a range of 1.8 to 2.5 percent in 2008 from the 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent pace it forecast previously.
"These revisions to the 2008 outlook since June stemmed from a number of factors, including the tightened terms and reduced availability of subprime and jumbo mortgages, weaker-than-expected housing data, and rising oil prices," the central bank explained in its first quarterly economic forecast report under a new policy.
Many economists expect the economic growth pace to slow significantly to just 1.5 percent or even less in the final quarter of this year. They believe that the deepening housing slump and persisting credit crunch have raised the risks of a recession.