$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he world will not need 60TW of energy in 2050.
In 2004, we used 15TW of energy.
In order to hit 60TW, we would need to quadruple energy use in 46 years. The basic compound interest model tells us that we would need to increase global energy use by 3%/year.
The yearly increase in energy use was 2% a year between 1980 and 2004. This was in an era of rapidly declining energy prices, strong economic growth, and strong population growth.
I realise this is just playing with numbers but China, alone, accounted for 15.6% of world primary energy consumption in 2006. China's energy consumption is growing at about 8.5% per year. From a world base of 15TW (your figure), this would translate to 88TW, for China alone, by 2050. India's energy consumption is also growing strongly, so one could easily imagine a paltry 60TW for the world as a whole, by 2050. Remember that we're talking about 2.5 billion people, and growing, aspiring to living standards more common in developed nations. Whilst developed nations will grow energy use more slowly, China and India won't, if there was the capability to do so.
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Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
by TonyPrep » Mon 10 Dec 2007, 04:05:49
Of course, with fossil fuel's decline, it won't reach that total.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
by Dezakin » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 13:12:04
And why do you think they cant use nuclear to do energy growth
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
by Tyler_JC » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 14:10:22
And does it seem likely that China's energy growth will continue at 8.5% a year from now until 2050?
Have we broken out of the long term trend of 2%/year energy demand growth?
Is China using its energy resources as efficiently as possible?
You can either believe that the answer to all of those questions is "yes" and that we will somehow find another couple trillion barrels of oil to fuel China's growth.
Or you can believe that China's rapid growth rate is an aberration and that its long term growth prospects are not infinite.
I just find it hard to believe that in a world of cheap energy, demand grew at only 2%/year but now that we have entered an era of higher energy prices, demand will grow at 3%/year+
Have we broken out of the long term trend of 2%/year energy demand growth?
Is China using its energy resources as efficiently as possible?
You can either believe that the answer to all of those questions is "yes" and that we will somehow find another couple trillion barrels of oil to fuel China's growth.
Or you can believe that China's rapid growth rate is an aberration and that its long term growth prospects are not infinite.
I just find it hard to believe that in a world of cheap energy, demand grew at only 2%/year but now that we have entered an era of higher energy prices, demand will grow at 3%/year+
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
by TonyPrep » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 14:24:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')nd does it seem likely that China's energy growth will continue at 8.5% a year from now until 2050?
Have we broken out of the long term trend of 2%/year energy demand growth?
Is China using its energy resources as efficiently as possible?
You can either believe that the answer to all of those questions is "yes" and that we will somehow find another couple trillion barrels of oil to fuel China's growth.
Or you can believe that China's rapid growth rate is an aberration and that its long term growth prospects are not infinite.
I just find it hard to believe that in a world of cheap energy, demand grew at only 2%/year but now that we have entered an era of higher energy prices, demand will grow at 3%/year+
Tyler, my post was merely to illustrate that the 65TW figure was not as far out as you seem to think. As developing countries aspire to developed countries' standards of living, their contribution to energy growth will dwarf the modest growth in developing countries. Of course I don't expect China and India to require 170 TW by themselves, but it doesn't take much imagination to see that 65TW for the world is not such a wild projection as you seem to think. And it's not just India and China, other developing countries are also ramping up their energy requirement beyond the growth levels seen in "the west".
Have we broken out of the long term trend of 2%/year energy demand growth?
Is China using its energy resources as efficiently as possible?
You can either believe that the answer to all of those questions is "yes" and that we will somehow find another couple trillion barrels of oil to fuel China's growth.
Or you can believe that China's rapid growth rate is an aberration and that its long term growth prospects are not infinite.
I just find it hard to believe that in a world of cheap energy, demand grew at only 2%/year but now that we have entered an era of higher energy prices, demand will grow at 3%/year+
However, you're right that high prices will serve to moderate that demand, at least for fossil fuels.
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