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Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:31:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')We added 5,714MW of capacity in 2007. That represents a growth rate of 21.6%.

Now that's an unrealistic rate of growth because by 2050, renewable energy production would exceed demand by 66,000% :)



HOW DARE YOU DO THE MATH!!!!

For being fact based and logical, and worse yet noticing that energy isn't any big deal to get enough, you SHOULD BE BANNED!!

:lol:
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:33:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he median of estimates Monte cites is actually 2- 5 billion.


This is a peer-reviewed paper that estimates it is 2 to 3 billion.

http://eco.gn.apc.org/pubs/smail.html
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:36:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he median of estimates Monte cites is actually 2- 5 billion.


This is a peer-reviewed paper that estimates it is 2 to 3 billion.

http://eco.gn.apc.org/pubs/smail.html



Yep, well, we still have to deal with the 6+ billion we have, don't we.


:)
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:37:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')n my locale, neither the rails nor the rights of way exist. You can still see where the train used to run, but the train is gone and it ain't comin' back. :(


I heard similar lines of thought right about the time Prudhoe Bay was discovered, about pipelines from the North Pole, the poor caribou, etc etc. All it took was Jimmy Carter proclaiming the end of all natural gas and oil and PRESTO.....

I can't imagine trains would be much different.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:37:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', ' ')I can even give you Smalley's 2X if you'd like. Of course, he claims that none of this can happen without new technology, and he's wrong on that point as well. But the hysterical way in which he advocates it gives me another name to add to my "boy is this guy nuts" list.


On ignore.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:45:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'R')GR,

You are ignoring the law of diminishing returns.

The 21% growth rate of renewable energy will not continue indefinitely.


I already knew that the high end growth was a ridiculous number, but I'm not about to make someone's point for them if they aren't smart enough to figure out the obvious for themselves. You did a bang up job of what I described a few posts later for Monte's benefit, I already knew the answer, and knew I didn't need anything near 21%.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
Another important note is that most renewable power projects have not yet reached the point of maximum production efficiency. Production levels will rise, efficiency will increase, and price will drop as we start to ramp up production.


Of course. Google wants solar electricity cheaper than coal electricity, and I'm betting they are going to get it. Soon. Pretending otherwise is just ignoring the obvious.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
As for those who think that increasing investment in our renewable energy infrastructure hurts the economy.

GDP = consumption + investment + (government spending) + (exports − imports), or, GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


Who has ever been silly enough to think that building out our new energy economy HURTS the economy? I would assume for large chunks of time it will POWER the economy.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:47:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'A')nyway, to summarize, any estimates on carrying capacity due to energy are suspect because energy use is purposefully inflated.(


Ok, how much are they inflated?

The median estimate from those studies using energy as the metric was 1 to 3 billion.

Double it and we are still in overshoot. Triple it and you only have to wait 43 years.

Suspect or not, we are still in overshoot. Look out the window.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:49:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', 'W')ith an unlimited number of sycophants available, it is possible to create reinforcement of delusional conclusions....
I've often wondered about the purpose of this site, since most of it seems to be focused around fear-mongering by supposedly authoritative figures w/ little supporting data, and what is present is suspect. Milgram illustrated that people would be complicit in action, or lack of action, even if it conflicted with their conscience if an authority figure were present. I don't think anyone here would state the Iraq war was a good idea, but many may see it as necessary evil, especially with authority figures claiming impending doom based on a peak in oil extracted. ;)
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:51:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', ' ')I can even give you Smalley's 2X if you'd like. Of course, he claims that none of this can happen without new technology, and he's wrong on that point as well. But the hysterical way in which he advocates it gives me another name to add to my "boy is this guy nuts" list.


On ignore.


If you can't ban them for noticing how wrong you are, it is best to ignore them.

Unfortunate that the quality of your concept can't take my first day back "back in the saddle" as it were, but it definitely scales the quality of it in the first place.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:56:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Suspect or not, we are still in overshoot. Look out the window.


I did. Nothing new. Peak oil can't even cause traffic jams to go away, so if you can't get the gullible into buying that line of thinking, think sillier!
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 22:06:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', 'W')ith an unlimited number of sycophants available, it is possible to create reinforcement of delusional conclusions....
I've often wondered about the purpose of this site, since most of it seems to be focused around fear-mongering by supposedly authoritative figures w/ little supporting data, and what is present is suspect.


SUSPECT!! Back before I got permanently banned, it used to have a more "oil" flavor to it, rather than < fill in some silly conspiracy or Ehrlich rerun bs > which it currently seems to favor.

My thoughts are that the post peak world hasn't brought about the huge disasters that were hoped for ( and I do mean HOPED for, people around here seem to want to cheerlead disaster for some reason ). Were you around during Katrina or afterwards? Man, the place was HOPPING, just waiting for Rupperts failure of society, or the fleeing from suburbia, or Ghawar to collapse one afternoon.

Here we are, years later, and my signature still says it all.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '[')
Milgram illustrated that people would be complicit in action, or lack of action, even if it conflicted with their conscience if an authority figure were present.


Yup....I've wondered that myself. Although "authority figure" isn't quite the description I would use for who was "leading" around here.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '[')
I don't think anyone here would state the Iraq war was a good idea, but many may see it as necessary evil, especially with authority figures claiming impending doom based on a peak in oil extracted. ;)


I am ambivalent on Iraq. I giggle about the 9-11 stuff, and my wife tells me to stop laughing so loud when I go through this dieoff routine.

With oil topics, I tend to stick to facts because its good practice for when I run into nutjobs at some national conference who don't like the conclusions in one of my posters or talks.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 22:26:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ') So let's say that every 2 years, the rate of growth drops by a full percentage point until it hits say, 4% a year. This would be a realistic result of the law of diminish returns.


The numbers can be spun to show 30 terrawatts from renewables in 50 years, but in reality that isn't going to happen amid economic chaos. I seriously doubt we can sustain anything close to that rate of growth. It isn't going to be a repeat of the Industrial Revolution on cheap energy.

As I noted earlier:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')enewables have severe limitations:

Renewables are diffuse energy sources – The potential energy available is – by any convenient measure of energy density – orders-of-magnitude less than that available from the combustion of conventional fossil fuels.

Renewables are not, generally speaking, dispatchable –Because of their intermittent nature, most renewables must be coupled with an effective energy storage system to have any value as stand-alone reliable power sources.

Renewables have unfavorable economics – Renewable energy technologies, while having very low operating costs, have very high capital costs.

Almost all renewables produce electricity in a liquid fuel world.


So, all the terrawatts in the world won't put a liquid fuel into your ICE car...and that's what we are stuck with for quite some time.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Tue 04 Dec 2007, 23:51:49, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 22:27:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he median of estimates Monte cites is actually 2- 5 billion.


This is a peer-reviewed paper that estimates it is 2 to 3 billion.

http://eco.gn.apc.org/pubs/smail.html
O rly? And here I though it was...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he case for dramatically reducing human numbers, and leading commentators in the field of population and development contributed their views on it. What follows summarises the keynote paper and the responses. The summary was prepared by Val Stevens in June 1999.


Since there is no peer reviewed paper, just a summary compiled by someone other than the author, there really isn't much to evaluate besides a few vagues statements. I believe this is why ReserveGrowthRulz was going on about accuracy.

Of course, everything in established social science journals, including anthropology, must be rigorous and sound. ;)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')k, how much are they inflated?

The median estimate from those studies using energy as the metric was 1 to 3 billion.
You misunderstand. I'm not talking about population, I'm talking about current energy use. That's what's inflated. If they base their estimate of of how much energy we waste, of course they'll state we can't support our current population. We've worked darn hard to waste as much oil as we have already, but can't waste oil at the rate we do forever.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')uspect or not, we are still in overshoot. Look out the window.I see foliage out my window. No people. If you're looking for anecdotal evidence why not go to a mall then tell everyone there how they're in overshoot, because a few square feet of concrete isn't enough to support all the people in the mall. :lol:
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 22:30:03

I long for critical thinkers and people who don't resort to childish sandbox antics. Threads devolve so quickly here anymore, it is disheartening.

Who wants to read through this trash?
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 22:34:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') long for critical thinkers and people who don't resort to childish sandbox antics. Threads devolve so quickly here anymore, it is disheartening.

Who wants to read through this trash?
Props on the appeal to ridicule/ad hominem attack! :razz:
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 22:42:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he median of estimates Monte cites is actually 2- 5 billion.


This is a peer-reviewed paper that estimates it is 2 to 3 billion.

http://eco.gn.apc.org/pubs/smail.html
O rly? And here I though it was...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he case for dramatically reducing human numbers, and leading commentators in the field of population and development contributed their views on it. What follows summarises the keynote paper and the responses. The summary was prepared by Val Stevens in June 1999.


Since there is no peer reviewed paper, just a summary compiled by someone other than the author, there really isn't much to evaluate besides a few vagues statements. I believe this is why ReserveGrowthRulz was going on about accuracy.


It is a summary of the peer-reviewed paper published in the journal, Politics and the Life Sciences, September 1997.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')OLITICS AND THE LIFE SCIENCES is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed journal with a global audience. PLS is owned and published by the ASSOCIATION FOR POLITICS AND THE LIFE SCIENCES, the APLS, which is both an American Political Science Association (APSA) Related Group and an American Institute of Biological Sciences (AIBS) Member Society.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f they base their estimate of of how much energy we waste, of course they'll state we can't support our current population.

They don't. They base it on an "adequate" level of consumption.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')uspect or not, we are still in overshoot. Look out the window.I see foliage out my window. No people.

More sandbox antics. Out my window, I see global climate change, loss of biodiversity, loss of critical habitat, air and water pollution, topsoil loss, water shortages, nitrogen overloading our environmental sinks.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 00:10:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')t is a summary of the peer-reviewed paper published in the journal, Politics and the Life Sciences, September 1997.
And as such, there isn't much to analyze, since w/o the paper, we know nothing about the assumptions the author made.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')f they base their estimate of of how much energy we waste, of course they'll state we can't support our current population.


They don't. They base it on an "adequate" level of consumption.
Ah yes, "adequate". According to the overview Ludi linked, one of the low end figures for world carrying capacity was a billion, and assumed...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t US standard of living with current (1970) technology and production.

With assumptions like this, I'm surprised the carrying capacity wasn't lowered. Not only were we wasting oil as fast as possible in two ton barges during the 70s, but there wasn't much in the way of choice for someone who wanted something a bit more efficient.

That being, said, every paper has it's assumptions. W/o those assumptions, we can't say much on the validity for or against. The only thing I can say is that if those assumptions are anywhere near what most people view as "adequate" such as an eight passenger SUV for solo trips and a five bedroom house for two people, then they're assuming needlessly wasteful behavior.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')uspect or not, we are still in overshoot. Look out the window.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') see foliage out my window. No people.

More sandbox antics.Stating what I see out my window is as much of a sandbox antic as stating we can somehow determine we are in overshoot by looking out a window in the first place. If I am employing sandbox antics as you've described, it's only in kind.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')ut my window, I see global climate change, loss of biodiversity, loss of critical habitat, air and water pollution, topsoil loss, water shortages, nitrogen overloading our environmental sinks.That's one heck of a sandbo... Er, window. :P
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 01:39:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')t is a summary of the peer-reviewed paper published in the journal, Politics and the Life Sciences, September 1997.
And as such, there isn't much to analyze, since w/o the paper, we know nothing about the assumptions the author made.


Still peer-reviewed. Go find a copy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to the overview Ludi linked, one of the low end figures for world carrying capacity was a billion, and assumed...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t US standard of living with current (1970) technology and production.


You cherry-picked one study to support you view?

Why not use the quote from the link?

Using standards of living lower than the current North American average, estimates of carrying capacity using energy as a metric range from 1 to 3 billion people.

Or the others?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ased on use of renewable solar energy. 1-2 billion in relative prosperity - based on use of renewable solar energy. 3 billion - Adequate food supply.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Optimum" population estimate with consumption siginifantly less than current US standard.

Let's see a link to your study to support your position.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 02:26:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')ou cherry-picked one study to support you view?
I did not cherry-pick anything. Although it's nice to see you using another ad hominem attack.

I used the only description with quantified energy consumption levels aside from this one, which had a similar estimate of energy consumption and carrying capacity.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ased on total land area, cultivated land area, forest land area, cereals (grain) and wood assuming technology and politics of 1975 and at affluent (average of world's 27 richest nations) to austere (average of 43 nations of average wealth based on GNP) standards of living.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')hy not use the quote from the link?

Using standards of living lower than the current North American average, estimates of carrying capacity using energy as a metric range from 1 to 3 billion people.

Or the others?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ased on use of renewable solar energy. 1-2 billion in relative prosperity - based on use of renewable solar energy. 3 billion - Adequate food supply.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Optimum" population estimate with consumption siginifantly less than current US standard.
Because all of those use qualifiers to describe a quantity. In other words...
-standards of living lower than the current North American average
-based on use of renewable solar energy
-standards of living lower than the current North American average
Are not quantities. They are vague statements that provide little to no information as to what level of energy consumption and use the authors assumed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'L')et's see a link to your study to support your position.Ah, the burden of proof, yet another fallacious argument. Can't say I'm surprised at this point. Could you be specific in the next fallacious comment you make?
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby futuretrip » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 06:50:45

I can't believe it, people of your intelligence saying that solar energy is not capable of defeating darkage. Sure, there will be "some" pollution, so what! Sure it will cost a lot to implement (but not more than wind or it will never happen anyways), But what's the alternative...
Death, decay? Outright limitation? There is methane hydrates but that'll cause an enviro feeding frenzy too!

So just give up on society, buy the "solar" farm, grow your own and die anyways from the stench...

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