by threadbear » Sun 02 Dec 2007, 16:10:57
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'T')he biggest dead weight on the import side of the American import/export scale since the early 1970’s has been Oil.
America would have had export excesses for almost every year of the last 40 if not for the cost of imported Oil.
Further decline in the value of the dollar only makes the Oil tab grow larger. Exporting more requires more Oil, so there is no way the U.S. can export its way to a surplus again, not with the current American profligate use of Oil for cars and frivolous travel we have become so accustomed to.
Look, if you took oil right out of the equation, you'd still be facing the nightmare of the financialization of the American economy, with the derivatives fiasco, the sub-prime meltdown, and general fallout from other irresponsible lending practices.
When oil was dirt cheap, the US started running up the largest trade deficits in it's history, so your argument doesn't hold up.
This is going to be American led, synchronized global "slowdown", worse than stagflation, but similar. Ravi Batra calls it "inflationary depression". That's what we'll see. Asset price bubble collapse, together with increased cost of everything else.