Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Two Fertilizer Companies Now Worth More than Citigroup

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby JohnDenver » Mon 03 Dec 2007, 03:04:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'W')e're both quoting from the same website www.fertilizer.org
You want to explain that JohnDenver? :-D

Good eye. Looks like a contradiction, and I just wrote them to see if they can explain it. Maybe, while we're waiting, you can explain how the human population increased by 27% while phosphate rock production dropped 25% from 1988-2008. The much hyped "Peak Phosphorus" seems to have passed by without causing so much as a ripple.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')tw I never was able to get access to your stats..I guess you have to be a member to access the info.

You don't have to be a member. Just go to the URL I gave, and click on the pink cell that says "Phosphate Rock". Your browser will download the excel file.
JohnDenver
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2145
Joined: Sun 29 Aug 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby manu » Mon 03 Dec 2007, 03:35:36

Maybe now more farmers will learn to compost properly. Get off the big corporate tit and farm for yourself.
User avatar
manu
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 751
Joined: Wed 26 Jul 2006, 03:00:00

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby BlisteredWhippet » Mon 03 Dec 2007, 04:42:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')ou can build bat houses and collect the guano.

Bat Houses


Build bat houses. +++
User avatar
BlisteredWhippet
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 848
Joined: Tue 08 Feb 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby Andrew_S » Mon 03 Dec 2007, 12:07:43

Fertilizer supplies tight in North America too:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ill You Get Anhydrous This Spring?

Tight supplies plague the 2008 crop market, which could impact the spot market.
(12/3/2007)
Mike Wilson

Even with high prices, ammonia supplies remain very tight and will probably remain so this coming spring.

"If the spring goes the way the fall has gone, those who don't have their spring ammonia needs already booked may find it very difficult to get supplies," says Growmark's Joe Dillier. "We've got a very good chance of having the same thing that happened last fall happen next spring - meaning, once you get in season you can't buy it."
<snip>
His advice? Stay very close to your retailer and watch what's happening in the market. Farmers are very aware of grain prices, but they need to stay in contact with fertilizer pricing that same way. Unfortunately you can't just open the paper and find those prices. So stay close to your retailer and watch for changes in pricing.

Link: farmfutures.com
Andrew_S
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 634
Joined: Sun 09 Jan 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby cube » Mon 03 Dec 2007, 17:29:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'W')e're both quoting from the same website www.fertilizer.org
You want to explain that JohnDenver? :-D

Good eye. Looks like a contradiction, and I just wrote them to see if they can explain it. Maybe, while we're waiting, you can explain how the human population increased by 27% while phosphate rock production dropped 25% from 1988-2008. The much hyped "Peak Phosphorus" seems to have passed by without causing so much as a ripple.
Good point!

I was scratching my head on that one also wondering why we haven't experienced a Malthusian doom scenario......yet. Perhaps farmers have shifted their production to crops that require less phosphorus? I don't have any stats unfortunately.

Here's a sample of crops and their phosphorous content.
Image
Notice wheat and rice has a lot of phosphorous while potatos and carrots are at the bottom of the list. I guess we all have to start getting used to eating potatos. :-D

There's been a lot of noise being generated about wheat recently: the pasta crisis in Italy, world inventory numbers dropping, and the massive bull market in wheat prices. Does this have anything to do with phosphorus? Is it a happy coincidence that wheat has a high phosphorus content. How come it's a wheat crisis and not a potato crisis? :oops:
cube
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3909
Joined: Sat 12 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby shortonoil » Mon 03 Dec 2007, 19:40:18

JohnDenver said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')aybe, while we're waiting, you can explain how the human population increased by 27% while phosphate rock production dropped 25% from 1988-2008. The much hyped "Peak Phosphorus" seems to have passed by without causing so much as a ripple.


To explain, it is called soil depletion, and it goes along with oil depletion, fish depletion, water depletion ..................... etc. The number of people on the planet presently exceed its carrying capacity. We are using up our essential resources faster than nature can replenish them. That “seems to have passed by without causing so much as a ripple” will result in something that someday may be called Peak People; in contemporary nomenclature it is know as the Sixth Mass Extinction.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA
Top

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby JohnDenver » Mon 10 Dec 2007, 08:48:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'B')TW, here's the production stats for phosphate rock from the IFA (units: 1000 tonnes):

1999: 146 349
2000: 146 388
2001: 144 068
2002: 154 529
2003: 157 056
2004: 165 325
2005: 172 126
2006: 167 600

Hardly a picture of terminal decline.
Source
FUNNY

my sources says otherwise:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he production of phosphate rock peaked in 1988 at a level of 166 million tonnes product, falling to 125 million tonnes today.


We're both quoting from the same website www.fertilizer.org
You want to explain that JohnDenver? :-D


Cube,
Ms. Couturier from the IFA kindly responded to my inquiry, and we have the answer. The page that says "The production of phosphate rock peaked in 1988 at a level of 166 million tonnes product, falling to 125 million tonnes today." is incorrect. It was written in Oct. 2002. The figure for 2002 was subsequently revised, and the most recent peak was in 2005 at 172,126,000 tons.
Peak Oil Debunked
JohnDenver
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2145
Joined: Sun 29 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby efarmer » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 17:08:06

Our DOE seems to be sponsoring phosphate intensive electrical vehicle batteries in addition to our agricultural dependence on phosphate sources. My understanding is 40 years minimum of current usage based on known deposits of phosphate rock. If it is a gating resource, (and I am convinced it is) I wonder why it is being pursued for automotive scale production of non IC vehicles?

http://www.uscar.org/guest/article_view ... cles_id=39

Link to DOE grant for lithium-iron-phosphate battery
User avatar
efarmer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2003
Joined: Fri 17 Mar 2006, 04:00:00

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 17:35:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'O')ur DOE seems to be sponsoring phosphate intensive electrical vehicle batteries in addition to our agricultural dependence on phosphate sources. My understanding is 40 years minimum of current usage based on known deposits of phosphate rock. If it is a gating resource, (and I am convinced it is) I wonder why it is being pursued for automotive scale production of non IC vehicles?

http://www.uscar.org/guest/article_view ... cles_id=39

Link to DOE grant for lithium-iron-phosphate battery

Any use for batteries is insignificant in terms of percentage points of existing reserves and would remain so even if all cars are electric and using phosphate based batteries.

Say, we have 1 billion of cars @ 100kg phosphate in each.
That would make 100 millions tons of phosphate (about current annual production).
All this phosphate could be recycled into next generations of batteries.
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7537
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby PhebaAndThePilgrim » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 17:40:39

Good day from Pheba, from the farm. The ice storm has subsided, and the ice has begun to melt. There are a lot of broken branches and down trees here.
Ten years ago nitrogen fertilizer was 50 percent less than it is now. We purchase about 3 to 4 thousand dollars worth of fertilizer per year. Each and every year that money purchases less and less fertilizer. We have fescue mix with clover, lespedeza, etc. We do not feed the fescue a great deal, just a minimum of nitrogen. We feed the clover and lespedeza for early spring growth so it can get ahead of the fescue.
Just for the math it takes one pound of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer to produce one bushel of corn. Now figure about 160 to 200 bushels per acre and do the math. (some farms in Iowa are now topping 220 bushels per acre.) That is a lot of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer to support a corn based system. This same system is now running a scam to produce fuel. The fuel is fed by nitrogen. Nitrogen is fed by natural gas.
We have a manure spreader and spread cow plops back on the field. This input of fertilizer is absolutely minimal in producing a good grass crop to feed our cattle. We now run about 30 head of cattle on 160 acres. When we have calves we have about 75 head on the place. Without the input of synthetic natural fertilizer the farm would support about 15 head of cattle. The 15 head would produce less natural fertilizer. Manu I would have to disagree with you on your assertion that farmers are being lazy by using synthetic fertilizers. Farmers have no choice.
For the farmer who wants to raise a small victory garden in the backyard, or even to grow an acre of tomatoes, then natural fertilizer might work. But wait, if I were to grow an acre of tomatoes, I would need a lot of natural fertilizer.
If I don't raise my own livestock, where would I get the fertilizer?
Do you have any ideal of the size of the compost pile that you would need to raise an acre of tomatoes?
As a farmer I can tell you that people just do not understand the basics of energy and fertilizer inputs in farming.
Okay, lets say you need fertilizer to raise tomatoes. What would you use. Cattle manure, chicken, fish emulsion? No matter what source you would use for an animal based fertilizer, that animal had to be fed something to produce the manure.
If the animal is grass fed, then the grass needed fertilizer. if the animal is grain fed, then the grain needed fertilizer.
Everything goes back to the first and second law of thermodynamics. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
There is not enough poop in the world to fertilize enough ground to feed 300 million people. Never mind feeding the world.
Looking at facts and figures on a computer screen is not the same as years and years of experience working the land. Please do not sell American farmers short.
If there was a way for a farmer to get away from spending thousands upon thousands of dollars on synthetic fertilizers they would do so.
When we drive we always look at our neighbor's fields to see how they are doing. This is called "gawking" by the way. And a city person behind us in a car gets very frustrated, very quickly.
This gawking is important to us. We can look at different crops and tell how a season is doing. We can tell who put nitrogen on their pasture and who did not. We can predict how the winter grain and hay prices are going to be by how well our neighbors are doing.
We have a neighbor who has a huge irrigation lake with the automatic irriation system. Summer before last we had a bad drought here. Crops just burned up in the field.
This farmer did not irrigate his crops. he let them burn up.
He could not afford the electricity to pump the water out of the lake. Energy costs are making farming more expensive than ever.
Also, we are having a problem in this area with the copper fittings being stolen from irrigation systems. Scrap prices are very high right now.
Pheba.
PhebaAndThePilgrim
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 294
Joined: Fri 29 Jul 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Show-Me State

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby Dezakin » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 17:49:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'M')ined phosphorus peaked in 1990 at 162,000 metric tons. By 2006 it was down to 142,000.

USGS

Large quantities of phosphorus necessary to support our population is available to farmers from three places--mineral in decline, delivered ocean biota (sea-bird guano, anadromous fish like salmon and lamprey that are born in fresh water and migrate to the ocean), and land mammals (especially grazers and browsers) that deliver phosphorus on the hoof to humans.

All else is recycled through the food system and stored temporarily in the soil.

You're fretting about a supposed shortage of the 11th most common mineral element in the crust, comprising a full .1% of all the crust. Upgrading that is trivial.
User avatar
Dezakin
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1569
Joined: Wed 09 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 17:55:20

Pheba,
OK you gave us some good ideas about the subject.
However how all that was done in the past?
At the beginning of XIX century there was still about 1 billion peoples on the world and no synthetic fertilizer at all.
How these were fed?

NB. You insist that poop based fertilizer could feed 300 millions at most.
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7537
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 18:09:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')You're fretting about a supposed shortage of the 11th most common mineral element in the crust, comprising a full .1% of all the crust. Upgrading that is trivial.

...but expensive.
So how would you "extract" it from a rock consisting of 98% of CaCO3 and 2% Ca3 (PO4)2 ?
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7537
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby Dezakin » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 18:23:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')You're fretting about a supposed shortage of the 11th most common mineral element in the crust, comprising a full .1% of all the crust. Upgrading that is trivial.

...but expensive.
So how would you "extract" it from a rock consisting of 98% of CaCO3 and 2% Ca3 (PO4)2 ?

Probably by limeburning as part of cement production, if you ever had to use ore grades that low. Which we wont this side of a thousand years.

Given that we reduce hundreds of millions of tons limestone a year, thousands of times that of phosphates, I'm not terribly worried about the miniscule expense phosphorus extraction will cost.
Last edited by Dezakin on Tue 11 Dec 2007, 20:01:13, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Dezakin
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1569
Joined: Wed 09 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby cube » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 19:57:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'P')heba,
OK you gave us some good ideas about the subject.
However how all that was done in the past?
At the beginning of XIX century there was still about 1 billion peoples on the world and no synthetic fertilizer at all.
How these were fed?
You ever heard of Guano?
It's bird droppings: rich in nitrogen and phosphorus. During the mid 19th century it was being mined on several islands in the Pacific. If it weren't for guano the world population wouldn't have jumped by an extra 70% from 1800 to 1900.

In a funny way Guano was to the 19th century
as
artificial fertilizers was to the 20th century
It was the Victorian version of the "green revolution" :-D

However all things must eventually come to an end. The world was running out of guano and a die-off was around the corner. However humans were "smart enough" to dodge the bullet and invented something even bigger and better then guano --> artificial nitrogen fertilizer thanks to the Haber Bosch process.

Can humans in their capacity for logic and science dodge the bullet again? time will tell...however things aren't looking too good now
cube
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3909
Joined: Sat 12 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby JohnDenver » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 21:34:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phebagirl', ' ')
There is not enough poop in the world to fertilize enough ground to feed 300 million people. Never mind feeding the world.

Actually, I've run that calculation, and manure from humans + livestock in the U.S. can compensate for the following percentages of chemical fertilizer consumption in the U.S.:
Nitrogen: 56%
Phosphorus: 43%
Potassium: 102%
That's just feces/urine. You can do better by plugging the leaks in the system: i.e. composting human carcasses, animal parts which are not composted (bones, blood, hides, teeth etc.), kitchen/yard/garden wastes which are transported to landfills.
So, there's enough poop/pee in the world to feed 3 billion people, minimum.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nergy costs are making farming more expensive than ever.

Why don't you just raise your prices to compensate?
Peak Oil Debunked
JohnDenver
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2145
Joined: Sun 29 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby efarmer » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 23:16:17

Thanks EnergyUnlimited for your phosphate numbers workup. The quick lookI did seemed to indicate only the lithium was targeted for recovery. LiFePO4 batteries are a very exciting prospect and I do hope the phosphate input is to augment a recirculating pool.

Toxco website:

Lithium Battery Recycling Process:
Toxco’s lithium battery recycling facility is located on 11 acres adjacent to the Columbia River near picturesque Trail in southern British Columbia. With over 70,000 manufacturing square feet, Toxco Trail was the company’s first recycling facility. The facility inventories incoming lithium battery waste. The waste is then stored in earth covered concrete storage bunkers. Residual electrical energy is removed from larger, more reactive batteries. If necessary the batteries then begin Toxco’s patented cryogenic process and are cooled to -325°F. Lithium, although normally explosively reactive at room temperature, is rendered relatively inert at this temperature. The batteries are then safely sheared/shredded and the materials are separated. Metals from the batteries are collected and sold. The lithium components are separated and converted to lithium carbonate for resale. Hazardous electrolytes are neutralized to form stable compounds and residual plastic casings and miscellaneous components are recovered for appropriate recycling or scrapping. If the batteries contain cobalt this is also recovered for reuse.
User avatar
efarmer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2003
Joined: Fri 17 Mar 2006, 04:00:00

Re: Fertiliser at a price – if you can get it

Postby cudabachi » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 23:20:37

I just harvested my first corn crop on my place in Venezuela and rest assured that I'll soon be incorporating cow, chicken, and hog manure into my ferterlizer program.

That commercial stuff is expensive.
Statistically, 9 out of 10 people enjoy gang rape. rangerone314
User avatar
cudabachi
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 671
Joined: Thu 09 Feb 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Venezuela

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 119 guests